Polling round-up, 21-31 August, 2015

[Statistikhengst]

With more and more polling information coming in all the time, even in a traditionally slow month like August, I'm moving to a new system of logging polling results, at least until sometime in the primary cycle.

Every two weeks, I will open and feed information into 5 specific threads, which you will be able to find at my politics blog:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: DEM Nomination

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: GOP Nomination

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Presidential matchups

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Senatorial/Gubernatorial

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues

Permanent EXCEL table links will be coming soon as well.

Not sure yet how deep I am going to go into the Senatorial or Gubernatorial data, but likely for marquee races, will log all that I can.

Aside from the Hillary vs. GOP analyses that come out about every 90 days or so right now, this twice-a-month deal will have to do the trick, because I have a lot of work in the outside world right now and duplicating stuff on a blog and a forum is time-consuming.

So,if you are looking for polling data, you are likely to find what you are looking for at the links.

I will remind that polling is a cyclical thing and often when you look at the aggregates, sinus curves tend to form. This is why I never get all too excited about one single poll. I may go deep into depth about some polls, but only because some of the inside data may be quite relevant.

-Stat

 

[Mr. H.]

It would be helpful if this were all contained in a single thread.

 

[Statistikhengst]

It would be helpful if this were all contained in a single thread.

I disagree. There will soon be a deluge of data that will easily dwarf the 375 polls and almost 1,600 matchups that I have already logged since December, 2012. It's much better to separate the stuff into 5 categories and, at least for a while, do it twice a month.

Later, it will just be the permanent EXCEL table, which I will continue to feed with data online. Then, once we are down to the definite nominees, it will be far easier to scan through and also, each state (plus national) gets its own tab.

It's also helpful in the future when people ask, for instance, "how were things in the latter half of August, 2015"? Well, instead of having to dig like crazy from poll to poll, all you need to do is to click on one single link, and it's all there.

And the way I present it is actually better than RCP. RCP only shows the margins. I show the toplines, survey size and MoE all in one fell-swoop.


Brotch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

*bump*

I did a major update to three of the threads listed in the OP.

Today, Donald Trump hit 40% in a GOP nomination poll (Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN) - from an extreme RW leaning pollster and an even more extreme RW leaning news outlet. But no candidate in 2011 going into 2012 ever hit 40%.

The dynamic right now is very, very different than it was in 2011.

Also, in national DEM nomination polling, Hillary is as strong as she ever was. A second poll shows Sanders beating her in NH, but losing badly to her in IA. So, considering that it was neck and neck between her and Obama in these two opening states in 2007-2008, the dynamic of the DEM race is also statistically, verifiably different than last time around.

Right now, in matchups against the GOP, Hillary is struggling mightily in Michigan, the second piece of evidence, at least at this time, that the BLUE WALL is not as solid as some may have seen. But both pollster are RW leaning pollster. the one (Mitchell), far to the Right. I've logged it all, as I always do, but am waiting on more reputable pollsters to produce results from MI before making any assumptions.

Back to that Gravis poll I mentioned above: Gravis also did 15 Hillary vs. GOP matchups and the margins range from Hillary +8 (over Graham) to Trump +8 (over Hillary). This is the ONLY national poll showing Trump winning, and winning big, but Gravis has shown considerably larger numbers for him than any other pollster.

You can find all of the stuff at the links in the OP.

Later, I will be inputting a lot of fav/unfav, approve/disapprove and issues polling on the one thread. Interesting stuff.

The NH Hillary vs. GOP matchups should be coming out today, I suspect (PPP).

-Stat

 

[Statistikhengst]

A major PPP (D) presidential match-up poll from New Hampshire came in. Big news for the Democrats, who win 15 of 16 matchups. Logged here:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Presidential matchups

 

[Statistikhengst]

With more and more polling information coming in all the time, even in a traditionally slow month like August, I'm moving to a new system of logging polling results, at least until sometime in the primary cycle.

Every two weeks, I will open and feed information into 5 specific threads, which you will be able to find at my politics blog:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: DEM Nomination

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: GOP Nomination

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Presidential matchups

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Senatorial/Gubernatorial

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond: 2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues

Permanent EXCEL table links will be coming soon as well.

Not sure yet how deep I am going to go into the Senatorial or Gubernatorial data, but likely for marquee races, will log all that I can.

Aside from the Hillary vs. GOP analyses that come out about every 90 days or so right now, this twice-a-month deal will have to do the trick, because I have a lot of work in the outside world right now and duplicating stuff on a blog and a forum is time-consuming.

So,if you are looking for polling data, you are likely to find what you are looking for at the links.

I will remind that polling is a cyclical thing and often when you look at the aggregates, sinus curves tend to form. This is why I never get all too excited about one single poll. I may go deep into depth about some polls, but only because some of the inside data may be quite relevant.

-Stat

So, in reference to the OP links (which you can click on at any time), as of today:

GOP national nomination polling, since 21.08

IPSOS/Reuters, from 21.08, Trump +16.7, and in just a three man race with Carson and Bush, Trump +15.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IPSOS/Reuters, from 25.08 an update from the 21.08 poll, Trump +19.7

The Economist / YouGOV, from 25.08, Trump +14

Gravis (R) / OANN, from 26.08, Trump +27.1

Quinnipiac, from 27.08, Trump +16

Average of those polls (exluding the first IPSOS, according to the no-repeater rule): Trump +19.2

(GOP state nomination polling at the same link)


DEM national nomination polling, since 21.08

IPSOS/Reuters, from 21.08, Clinton +23.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IPSOS/Reuters, from 25.08 an update from the 21.08 poll, Clinton +25

The Economist / YouGOV, from 25.08, Clinton +21

Gravis (R) / OANN, from 26.08, Clinton +32.7

Quinnipiac, from 27.08, Clinton +22

Average of those polls (exluding the first IPSOS, according to the no-repeater rule): Clinton +25.2


(DEM state nomination polling at the same link)


The national Clinton vs. GOP, Biden vs. GOP and Sanders vs. GOP matchups are also very informative.

If the PPP (D) poll is on the money, then right now, NH is not even a battleground state, except in the unlikely event of a Kasich (R) nomination.

There are lots of polls logged at all five links from the OP.

 

[pepperpot]

Have to say after looking at the Quinnipiac poll out today, I am not at all comfortable with Clintons lead. Biden does better than Clinton against Trump. Sanders doesnt seem competitive. Cant believe Trump is still hanging in there.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf

 

[Statistikhengst]

Have to say after looking at the Quinnipiac poll out today, I am not at all comfortable with Clintons lead. Biden does better than Clinton against Trump. Sanders doesnt seem competitive. Cant believe Trump is still hanging in there.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf

It's all recorded, already in the corresponding OP link.

Her leads are not much different than the last 4 Quinnipiacs. Qpiac has been very, very bearish on Clinton and I am going to go out on a limb and say that after the 2016 election, Quinnipiac is going to come out and admit that it used a far more restrictive mode than it published, much as Gallup had to eat some major crow after the 2012 elections.

 

[pepperpot]

Maybe but I think there is real movement underfoot against establishment. Its seen on the GOP side and the democratic side. Crowds are amassing for Trump and Sanders and not for others. I think the potential is there for a Sanders victory.

 

[Statistikhengst]

An interesting poll just came in from West Virginia, from "Orion Strategies". Since polls from that state are rare, I looked right away. The D and R nomination results are already logged within the OP links, also the single Presidential D-R matchup in the poll.

And then there was this nugget in the internals:

When it's called "Obamacare", effective yes or no = NO +15.
But when it's called "Affordable Care Act", then effective yes or no = NO +6
But the two questions are asking about the same thing.

Hmmmmmm....

 

[Spinster]

Have to say after looking at the Quinnipiac poll out today, I am not at all comfortable with Clintons lead. Biden does better than Clinton against Trump. Sanders doesnt seem competitive. Cant believe Trump is still hanging in there.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us08272015_Ueg38d.pdf

It's all relative to Trump's unlimited funds, that's how he's still hanging in there. Duh!

 

[Arizona Willie]

I agree. I'm supporting Bernie over the Ice Queen. Hillary is 100% owned by the Corporations and the uber wealthy.
I contributed to Bernie and that is rare for me to actually give them money.

Maybe but I think there is real movement underfoot against establishment. Its seen on the GOP side and the democratic side. Crowds are amassing for Trump and Sanders and not for others. I think the potential is there for a Sanders victory.