Poll Shows Support for Wisconsin Governor

[8537]

You're right, it's not a complete circle jerk. It's just an almost complete circle jerk

If you followed the LINK and actually READ it, there are all the internals right there for you to see.

indeed! And they show an online poll relying primarily on FEN members and FEN member invitees.

IOW, it's a statistical circle jerk.

not completely, but it shows that the sample is tainted to some degree... and although I agree with much of the results, it's because it supports my bias, but may not necessarily be an accurate sample. Therefore, my caution.

It's certainly suffering from significant selection bias:

Category 1 was a specific request to each of the 10,000+ poll-takers who had taken the FEN October 2009 pre-election poll. That poll had accurately forecast the lack of engagement by younger voters, the high turnout that would be seen by voters over the age of 50, and a strong move to the right by Independent voters, resulting in a predicted “blow out” by Republican candidates.

If you poll members of a rightwing free market think tank, it shouldn't be surprising that you get answers as you'd expect from a rightwing free market think tank. "independent" voters who previously took an FEN poll are obviously likely FEN supporters.

Category 2 consisted of a request to FEN members to take the poll.

I don't think the bias here needs to be explained.

Category 3 consisted of poll-takers who responded to ads appearing on conservative, liberal and union-sponsored websites.

So, they post an FEN poll and try to claim that posting such a poll on "liberal and union" websites removes the sample bias? it doesn't.

 

[Big Fitz]

You're right, it's not a complete circle jerk. It's just an almost complete circle jerk

indeed! And they show an online poll relying primarily on FEN members and FEN member invitees.

IOW, it's a statistical circle jerk.

not completely, but it shows that the sample is tainted to some degree... and although I agree with much of the results, it's because it supports my bias, but may not necessarily be an accurate sample. Therefore, my caution.

It's certainly suffering from significant selection bias:



If you poll members of a rightwing free market think tank, it shouldn't be surprising that you get answers as you'd expect from a rightwing free market think tank. "independent" voters who previously took an FEN poll are obviously likely FEN supporters.

Category 2 consisted of a request to FEN members to take the poll.

I don't think the bias here needs to be explained.

Category 3 consisted of poll-takers who responded to ads appearing on conservative, liberal and union-sponsored websites.

So, they post an FEN poll and try to claim that posting such a poll on "liberal and union" websites removes the sample bias? it doesn't.

No, I won't out of hand say that they did not successfully get a lot of liberals and unionists to take the poll as well. If you also look at the internals, they culled a lot out for just that reason and kept equal proportions of those who stated they were liberal, conservative and split it between union and non union.

There is still potential bias in that they were all interested parties, not a true random sample.

Like I said, I like the results. I want to trust them, but I've seen so many bad polls... I won't trust it completely.

Mostly I like Realclearpolitics for polls because it's the biggest sample and often from competing organizations who's bias often offsets.

 

[8537]

No, I won't out of hand say that they did not successfully get a lot of liberals and unionists to take the poll as well.

it doesn't matter if they got a lot of liberals and union members - it's not a random sample. They got a predisposed group of liberals and union members.

If you also look at the internals, they culled a lot out for just that reason and kept equal proportions of those who stated they were liberal, conservative and split it between union and non union.

But that doesn't work b/c it's a predisposed sample AND a sample based on a trust in the random anonymous pollee.

Mostly I like Realclearpolitics for polls because it's the biggest sample and often from competing organizations who's bias often offsets.

We agree here - I'm just saying there's more than a little reason to completely dismiss this poll (which is easy for me to say since I don't like it )

 

[Big Fitz]

No, I won't out of hand say that they did not successfully get a lot of liberals and unionists to take the poll as well.

it doesn't matter if they got a lot of liberals and union members - it's not a random sample. They got a predisposed group of liberals and union members.

If you also look at the internals, they culled a lot out for just that reason and kept equal proportions of those who stated they were liberal, conservative and split it between union and non union.

But that doesn't work b/c it's a predisposed sample AND a sample based on a trust in the random anonymous pollee.

Mostly I like Realclearpolitics for polls because it's the biggest sample and often from competing organizations who's bias often offsets.

We agree here - I'm just saying there's more than a little reason to completely dismiss this poll (which is easy for me to say since I don't like it )

Hence my point but I'm not going to belabor the obvious anymore other than to say this poll is not to be dismissed out of hand, just taken into context that it was made in.

nuff said.

There were some very interesting bits of data in there that I found both useful and illuminating.

 

[TheSeeker]

I'm standing on my old quote corrupted from Mark Twain:

"There are lies, damn lies, statistics, opinion polls, computer models and studies."

I need to see the internals before I give even this too much credit.

If you followed the LINK and actually READ it, there are all the internals right there for you to see.

indeed! And they show an online poll relying primarily on FEN members and FEN member invitees.

IOW, it's a statistical circle jerk.

The Free Enterprise Nation is a non-partisan member based organization representing American employees and businesses in the private sector.
Edit/Delete Message

Not only did "employees" participate, but it was evenly split 500 Democrats, 500 Independents, and 500 Republicans.

Now considering that Democrats and Republicans points of view would tend to go in opposite directions, the most important people, and the least BIASED of those polled would be the Independents.

And the Independents went with the Governor at about 67%.

 

[Seawytch]

The poll that will matter, as mentioned already, is the recall petition, the Supreme Court election that Wisconsin will soon have and the 2012 election. Governor Wanker has ensured that WI will go blue as a Smurf's ass in 2012.

 

[MaggieMae]

The Free Enterprise Nation (FEN) today released the results of a national poll that shows strong support for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker among Independent voters. The poll of voters outside of Wisconsin, taken from March 3rd to March 9th, included 500 Democrat, 500 Republican and 500 Independent voters.

In the Wisconsin clash between the Governor and the teachers' unions, do you agree with the Governor or the unions?

56% Agree with Walker
42% Agree with unions
2% Nor Sure

Full poll results are available at The Free Enterprise Nation - wisconsin survey

The Free Enterprise Nation is a non-partisan member based organization representing American employees and businesses in the private sector.

Well all the other major polling on the issue of public employees/unions, the responses are completely different, and in the Bloomberg poll here, Walker's numbers are not that great. Click on "more" at the bottom of the first page to see other polls.

Work

The problem is Walker is seen as anti-worker period, with his dictatorial position on public unions.

 

[MaggieMae]

One, there is already a thread on this, numb nuts. Two, as already pointed out in the other thread, the support Walker has outside of Wisconsin is completely irrelevant.

Except the issue has become a national issue, not confined to just Wisconsin.

Unions plan massive counterattack to GOP in 2012 | wisconsin, walker, republican - WPEC 12 West Palm Beach

 

[8537]

Not only did "employees" participate, but it was evenly split 500 Democrats, 500 Independents, and 500 Republicans.

Now considering that Democrats and Republicans points of view would tend to go in opposite directions, the most important people, and the least BIASED of those polled would be the Independents.

And the Independents went with the Governor at about 67%.

It doesn't matter that it was "evenly split". It's a biased sample to begin with - ESPECIALLY in terms of independents, since it's independents referred via far right organization.

The poll is a completely biased piece of shit. The only reasons anyone would deny as much are:

1. They failed statistics.

2. The poll says what they want it to say, science be damned.

 

[TheSeeker]

Not only did "employees" participate, but it was evenly split 500 Democrats, 500 Independents, and 500 Republicans.

Now considering that Democrats and Republicans points of view would tend to go in opposite directions, the most important people, and the least BIASED of those polled would be the Independents.

And the Independents went with the Governor at about 67%.

It doesn't matter that it was "evenly split". It's a biased sample to begin with - ESPECIALLY in terms of independents, since it's independents referred via far right organization.

The poll is a completely biased piece of shit. The only reasons anyone would deny as much are:

1. They failed statistics.

2. The poll says what they want it to say, science be damned.

So you call a non-partisan group a "far right organization"?

I wonder why those Democrats and Independents belong to this "far right organization"?

Could the answer be because it's NOT a "far right organization"?

More than probably, it just ISN'T.

Of course you had no problem at all accepting a NYT or CBS poll that skewed it's sample by polling 20% more Democrats and union families.

Kind of funny how the Moonbat mind works......wait, I take that back...it doesn't work.

 

[8537]

Not only did "employees" participate, but it was evenly split 500 Democrats, 500 Independents, and 500 Republicans.

Now considering that Democrats and Republicans points of view would tend to go in opposite directions, the most important people, and the least BIASED of those polled would be the Independents.

And the Independents went with the Governor at about 67%.

It doesn't matter that it was "evenly split". It's a biased sample to begin with - ESPECIALLY in terms of independents, since it's independents referred via far right organization.

The poll is a completely biased piece of shit. The only reasons anyone would deny as much are:

1. They failed statistics.

2. The poll says what they want it to say, science be damned.

So you call a non-partisan group a "far right organization"?

They may not declare Democratic or Republican, but they certainly have a far-right economic agenda.

I wonder why those Democrats and Independents belong to this "far right organization"?

Who said they belong? They were simply recruited from websites and unions to take the poll - or recruited by FEN supporters. Hence the obvious bias.

I'm not sure if you failed statistics or the poll tells you what you want to hear so you accept it. Of course, those are not mutually exclusive.

 

[rhodescholar]

Governor Wanker has ensured that WI will go blue as a Smurf's ass in 2012.

You might believe that, even wish it, but it is not going to happen. Especially if the economy continues to improve.

In the US - the economy is everything, and regardless who is in power, or did what and when, if the economy is perceived to be better in 2012, then given that the democrats were already pushed out of all 3 levers of power, they should not expect to come back anytime soon.

 

[8537]

Governor Wanker has ensured that WI will go blue as a Smurf's ass in 2012.

You might believe that, even wish it, but it is not going to happen. Especially if the economy continues to improve.

In the US - the economy is everything, and regardless who is in power, or did what and when, if the economy is perceived to be better in 2012, then given that the democrats were already pushed out of all 3 levers of power, they should not expect to come back anytime soon.

How was the economy in 1994?

2006?

 

[TheSeeker]

So you call a non-partisan group a "far right organization"?

They may not declare Democratic or Republican, but they certainly have a far-right economic agenda.

Really?

Please show me where their "far right agenda" is stated. Or are you just making shit up?

I wonder why those Democrats and Independents belong to this "far right organization"?

Who said they belong? They were simply recruited from websites and unions to take the poll - or recruited by FEN supporters. Hence the obvious bias.

Who says they belong?

It's a non-partisan group of MEMBERS. They polled their MEMBERS. Get it?

I'm not sure if you failed statistics or the poll tells you what you want to hear so you accept it. Of course, those are not mutually exclusive.

OK......show me where the statistics of this poll tells you something different than what I've said it does.

500 Democrats, 500 Independents, and 500 Republicans are asked if they agree with Walker or the Union in the Wisconsin debate. Results: A majority agree with Walker.

Maybe YOU don't grasp how percentages work?

 

[8537]

So you call a non-partisan group a "far right organization"?

They may not declare Democratic or Republican, but they certainly have a far-right economic agenda.

Really?

Please show me where their "far right agenda" is stated. Or are you just making shit up?

Their four primary initiatives are to defund health care legislation, oppose unions, public sector pension reform and guarantee SS by defunding other progressive programs.

It's a non-partisan group of MEMBERS. They polled their MEMBERS. Get it?

Yes, indeed! The member are far-right leaning. that's the point.

OK......show me where the statistics of this poll tells you something different than what I've said it does.

500 Democrats, 500 Independents, and 500 Republicans are asked if they agree with Walker or the Union in the Wisconsin debate. Results: A majority agree with Walker.

Maybe YOU don't grasp how percentages work?

indeed, you either failed statistics - or perhaps research methods. Let's try another example:

Suppose you want to know how people feel about the New York Yankees. So you decide to do an online poll open to everyone! First, you invite 1000 people from Yankeefans.com. Then you ask those people and the other members of Yankeefans.com to invite 1,000 of their friends to participate. So far, your sample is pretty much 2,000 Yankees fans, right?

Then you invite a 1,000 people by posting the survey about the Yankees on MLB.com and Yahoo fantasy baseball. This will attract three types of people:

1. Diehard Yankees fans.
2. Diehard Yankee haters
3. People determined to fuck with the poll.

Then, you take these three thousand anonymous responses, weight them EVENLY (nevermind the obvious bias in the first two groups, and the slightly more subtle bias in the third), chose 500 from each one and call it a scientific poll.

Surely you'd agree that would produce an inordinate number of Yankee fans compared to the general population. How about if you did the exact same thing but exchanged "Walker" for "Yankee"?