Poll on deficit changes

[oldfart]

The Google Consumer Survey is conducting a poll as to how people perceive the deficit is changing. The wording is: "How do you think the United Stats Federal Government's budget deficit has changed since 2010?" This seems like a petty straightforward factual question which most people could look up if they wanted to. So what are the results?

Increased a lot--------------------47.2%
Increased a little------------------12.4%
Stayed about the same----------23.1%
Decreased a little--------------------9.0%
Decreased a lot----------------------8.3%

Link: How do you think the US Federal Government's yearly budget deficit has changed since January 2010?

Now in 2010 the deficit was about 9% of GDP and now it is about 4%. People can quibble about the differences between "a little" and "a lot" and about whether we are talking about the absolute size of the deficit in nominal terms, inflation-adjusted terms, percapita terms, or percentage of GDP; but the results are not sensitive to the measure, all measures are much lower now than in 2010.

So by all measures the deficit is dropping pretty dramatically (to less than half of 2010 levels) while Americans believe overwhelmingly (82.7%) that it has not dropped at all and almost half think it has increased a lot.

I assume that the general public gets the misinformation from the blogosphere and punditocracy. There may be some self-selection here as people who are deficit hawks tend to read like-thinking pundits, but over 80%? A lot of these respondents voted for Obama, both times, and I cannot impagine they all get their information from Hannity.

So folks, any opinions as to why people believe this way and why this misinformation seems impervious to facts? Inquiring minds want to know!

 

[asaratis]

The Google Consumer Survey is conducting a poll as to how people perceive the deficit is changing. The wording is: "How do you think the United Stats Federal Government's budget deficit has changed since 2010?" This seems like a petty straightforward factual question which most people could look up if they wanted to. So what are the results?

Increased a lot--------------------47.2%
Increased a little------------------12.4%
Stayed about the same---------23.1%
Decreased a little-------------------9.0%
Decreased a lot---------------------8.3%

Link: How do you think the US Federal Government's yearly budget deficit has changed since January 2010?

Now in 2010 the deficit was about 9% of GDP and now it is about 4%. People can quibble about the differences between "a little" and "a lot" and about whether we are talking about the absolute size of the deficit in nominal terms, inflation-adjusted terms, percapita terms, or percentage of GDP; but the results are not sensitive to the measure, all measures are much lower now than in 2010.

So by all measures the deficit is dropping pretty dramatically (to less than half of 2010 levels) while Americans believe overwhelmingly (82.7%) that it has not dropped at all and almost half think it has increased a lot.

I assume that the general public gets the misinformation from the blogosphere and punditocracy. There may be some self-selection here as people who are deficit hawks tend to read like-thinking pundits, but over 80%? A lot of these respondents voted for Obama, both times, and I cannot impagine they all get their information from Hannity.

So folks, any opinions as to why people believe this way and why this misinformation seems impervious to facts? Inquiring minds want to know!

The deficit may decrease from year to year, but the debt continues to increase because the deficit is NOT ZERO...as it should be.

 

[Avorysuds]

it's a hard question to answer. The annual deficit from 2010 has stayed the same, a gigantic rise since lets say 2006. But "deficit" could mean our debt too. Like most things, when poor context is given Obama looks only sub par to normal for a bad President. When fuller context is given you quickly see Obama's budget problems firstly don't match the promises he made when trying to get elected (both times), and further more that even if the deficit slightly drops from 2010 to 2013 it's still at historic levels of high.

The poll does not come across as straight forward. It's misleading at it's worst as the information it collects will be used to grandstand and fight over something that does not matter. At it's best it's a ignorant question, presented by someone who does not understand how useless the results of that poll are.

 

[oldfart]

So by all measures the deficit is dropping pretty dramatically (to less than half of 2010 levels) while Americans believe overwhelmingly (82.7%) that it has not dropped at all and almost half think it has increased a lot.

The deficit may decrease from year to year, but the debt continues to increase because the deficit is NOT ZERO...as it should be.[/QUOTE]

So you think the majority of respondents saw "deficit" and mentally processed it as "debt"? That's an interesting explanation and could explain a lot.

 

[asaratis]

......

The deficit may decrease from year to year, but the debt continues to increase because the deficit is NOT ZERO...as it should be.

So you think the majority of respondents saw "deficit" and mentally processed it as "debt"? That's an interesting explanation and could explain a lot.

Somehow the quote commands got all effed up in your post. See above for repairs.

 

[PaulS1950]

When you borrow 8 trillion dollars to "balance" the budget it is criminal to call it a "reduced" deficit.
Since Obama took office the national debt has increased from 12 to 20 trillion dollars. So does that show in ant way that he spent less money?

How long will it be before we can't even pay the interest on the outstanding debt?

BTW I am not singling out Obama here - that is just for a time frame. This borrowing has been going on increasingly since before 1835.
The only time we have truly had a balanced budget (no borrowing but also not touching the debt) was between 1919 and 1931.
At no time since then have we actually had a balanced budget. Those years that came close were because money was "borrowed" from social security and other "surplus" moneys in the government coffers.