Politico: Final Mason-Dixon polls. Is Obama in trouble?

Discussion in 'Congress' started by The Paperboy, Nov 3, 2008.

  1. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    Politico:

    Undecideds trouble for Obama?

    Disclaimer: This is not a racial statement: I doubt there are too many African Americans in the undecideds.

    Just saying...

    Link here
     
  2. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Undecideds have been breaking even today, or even possibly for Obama, see the final RCP average trendlines. Look at the very right side.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    We'll know in about 24 hours. Not holding my breath one way or the other. Won't be surprised if it goes either way. But if it goes for McCain them pollsters are gonna have an awful some 'splainin to do!

    From an "emotional" level I almost rather have Obama win but from a policy view there is little I agree with Obama on in terms of economics.

    Sigh.
     
  4. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: House Effects in Action

    House Effects in Action

    The new set of battleground state polling from Mason-Dixon provides a terrific working example of what we call "house effects" -- a poll's consistent tendency to lean toward one candidate or another. Throughout this election cycle, we have found that Mason-Dixon's polls lean 2-3 points more toward John McCain than the average of other polls taken in those states at the same time.

    Here are the Mason-Dixon polls released within the past 72 hours in eight key battleground states, along with a comparison to our current trendline-adjusted averages:

    [​IMG]

    In all of these states but Florida, Mason-Dixon came in below our average (although in some cases not by much). On balance, their polls were 2.5 points more favorable to McCain than the average -- exactly where our model had pegged Mason-Dixon polls going in.

    But! -- you might protest -- maybe these numbers are more favorable to McCain because your averages are out of date, and this election is trending toward McCain!

    Well, not really. Because if you compare these polls against the last time Mason-Dixon was in the field in these states, Obama hasn't really lost any ground. (Actually, he's gained a bit, but not any statistically significant amount).

    [​IMG]

    ...to make this clear for the nth time, the presence of a house effect does not mean that a pollster is partisan or "biased". Mason-Dixon is a non-partisan pollster. Nor does it mean that a pollster is wrong! Mason-Dixon has a pretty good track record. Their vision of the electorate -- which seems to point toward a narrow Obama electoral victory -- could very easily turn out to be the right one. But it does mean that you need to take these sorts of things into account to make sure that you're making apples-to-apples comparisons.
     
  5. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Well, think of yourself in a win win situation then I guess.

    I do, because I agree that a split government is better. And I like McCain.
     
  6. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Where n= at least three by now.

    David, we're gonna keep talking abou it.
     
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  7. The Paperboy
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    The Paperboy Times Square

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    If Obama wins a lot of people will feel really great about the country but I think this will be short lived; maybe six months. Then reality will set in that Obama can't just wave his magic wand and make "filling up your tank and paying your mortgage easier".

    I'll be curious to see how he does on foreign affairs.
     
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  8. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Competence will be returned to the White House.

    No more borrow and spend Republicans who never met a war they didn't like. No more of the world laughing at the ridiculous baffoon we elected president. Sorry, but Bush is just an embarassment. He can't even speak English correctly.
     
  9. SwingVoter
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    SwingVoter VIP Member

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    No need to apologize. Worst pres to serve a full two terms. Ever.

    all the war spending has crowded out traditional private sector capital investment, so let's hope Obama comes through with those military cuts
     
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  10. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    No.

    McCain pretty much has to sweep all the swing states. Since he's not going to do that, Obama is not in trouble.
     

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