Political Fallout if Court Overturns Healthcare Act?

[nodoginnafight]

If the Supreme Court overturns significant sections of the Universal Healthcare Act it would embarass the Obama administration, but would it undercut an issue that could be a GOP strength in the fall? Has the GOP (by nominating Romney) already lost any leverage on the issue? Does the left punish Obama or can he avoid fallout by throwing up his hands and saying, "I tried?"

 

[FloridaGirl]

I have seen different opinions on this. Some may think it is a benefit to Obama if parts of or all of the health care is overturned and some think it is an advantage for GOP. If a majority of people still is against the health care law, then maybe the party with most advantage will be the GOP. But it will be interesting to see what actually happens....guess in June before the summer recess.....or can they rule any time?

 

[SniperFire]

If the Supremes toss it, we enter a more chaotic state than an orderly legislative repeal process which would begin with a simple waiver for all 50 states by Romney.

The Democrats argument: 'We spent two years on it, shoved it thru like the totalitarians we are, and totally fucked it up in the process. Let us try again.'


The Republican argument: 'Obamacare is an embarrassing fuck up and an example of what happens when communists try to force their values thru on the rest of America. Time to let us tackle the healthcare problem the right way and create solutions that work for all Americans.'

The choice is not a hard decision to make for any reasonable person.

 

[nodoginnafight]

I think they can rule anytime - but I think they tried to set the expectation that nothing was gonna come until June.

I'm just wondering if it could wind up being a "be careful what you wish for" moment - but I can't imagine a Court-President squabble being to good for the prez

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

There's nothing but upside to overturning this unconstitutional monstrosity,

 

[nodoginnafight]

Sniperfire - you've just pointed out just how hyper-partisanship has distorted the issue. Those "communist values" (if you are reffering to the individual mandate) were first proposed by Republicans who only started opposing it when a Democrat got it passed.

But your post probably accurately describes how the Republicans will try to frame the debate.

Anyone care to take a stab at how Democrats will try to frame it?

 

[nodoginnafight]

Soggy - what I'm trying to examine is the political fallout.

 

[Dragon]

If it is overturned, that will increase pressure for a single-payer system, which might otherwise lie dormant a little longer. Republicans will be able to make use of this situation if and only if they come out advocating for single-payer, which is, needless to say, most unlikely.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

If the Supreme Court overturns significant sections of the Universal Healthcare Act it would embarass the Obama administration, but would it undercut an issue that could be a GOP strength in the fall? Has the GOP (by nominating Romney) already lost any leverage on the issue? Does the left punish Obama or can he avoid fallout by throwing up his hands and saying, "I tried?"

Romney had no leverage on Obama on the "Obamacare" issue, especially as "Romneycare" is part of the lexicon.

However, I don't see that the GOP gave up anything on the issue by nominating Romney. When it gets struck down (and it will), whether in part or in full, Obama will have an embarrassing few weeks, then he'll have a nice stump speech about activists judges, and then no one will care.

The SCOTUS ruling will effectively be the final word on Obamacare in July. By September, the national debate will be on to something else. Even if the GOP had gone with Santorum, Obamacare simply wouldn't be an issue come November.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The Republican argument: 'Obamacare is an embarrassing fuck up and an example of what happens when communists try to force their values thru on the rest of America. Time to let us tackle the healthcare problem the right way and create solutions that work for all Americans.'

Considering the GOP was pro-Mandate as a whole before Obama started talking about it, I'd have to hear a pretty detailed plan from the GOP before I trusted them on the issue again.

At this point, single payer is the long term inevitable solution. Especially if the only part of Obamacare struck down is the waiver. Without the income from the waiver, the insurance companies would collapse under the Pre-Existing, No Cap and Adult Dependent clauses which are all fairly popular with the voters.

What I absolutely will not support is the McCain plan, which was to actually tax my employer's contributions to my health insurance in order to try to dismantle the current system....without any kind of replacement system in place.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Romney had no leverage on Obama on the "Obamacare" issue, especially as "Romneycare" is part of the lexicon.

However, I don't see that the GOP gave up anything on the issue by nominating Romney.

I have to confess, I don't see how to reconcile these two ideas.
If you accept that the majority of people oppose this bill
then the GOP could have used this against Obama - but you also say Romney has no leverage on the issue
so it seems the GOP did give away that leverage by nominating Romney - unless your point is that the GOP gave away nothing because it was always going to be gone by November anyway.

 

[jillian]

If the Supreme Court overturns significant sections of the Universal Healthcare Act it would embarass the Obama administration, but would it undercut an issue that could be a GOP strength in the fall? Has the GOP (by nominating Romney) already lost any leverage on the issue? Does the left punish Obama or can he avoid fallout by throwing up his hands and saying, "I tried?"

you're a little late on this topic... done to death

 

[nodoginnafight]

The Republican argument: 'Obamacare is an embarrassing fuck up and an example of what happens when communists try to force their values thru on the rest of America. Time to let us tackle the healthcare problem the right way and create solutions that work for all Americans.'

Considering the GOP was pro-Mandate as a whole before Obama started talking about it, I'd have to hear a pretty detailed plan from the GOP before I trusted them on the issue again.

At this point, single payer is the long term inevitable solution. Especially if the only part of Obamacare struck down is the waiver. Without the income from the waiver, the insurance companies would collapse under the Pre-Existing, No Cap and Adult Dependent clauses which are all fairly popular with the voters.

What I absolutely will not support is the McCain plan, which was to actually tax my employer's contributions to my health insurance in order to try to dismantle the current system....without any kind of replacement system in place.

Ok - sorry - I read this AFTER my last post.

 

[nodoginnafight]

If the Supreme Court overturns significant sections of the Universal Healthcare Act it would embarass the Obama administration, but would it undercut an issue that could be a GOP strength in the fall? Has the GOP (by nominating Romney) already lost any leverage on the issue? Does the left punish Obama or can he avoid fallout by throwing up his hands and saying, "I tried?"

you're a little late on this topic... done to death

Hey it means I got to talk to you again - so it couldn't be all bad, huh?
Anyway - I'm just returning to the boards after a very long absence and I saw nothing.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

A lot of people are already getting financial benefit from the Affordable Care Act, myself included.

Those people will be pretty ticked if they have to lose that money just because the damn Rs don't like the president.

 

[The Rabbi]

The Republican argument: 'Obamacare is an embarrassing fuck up and an example of what happens when communists try to force their values thru on the rest of America. Time to let us tackle the healthcare problem the right way and create solutions that work for all Americans.'

Considering the GOP was pro-Mandate as a whole before Obama started talking about it, I'd have to hear a pretty detailed plan from the GOP before I trusted them on the issue again.

At this point, single payer is the long term inevitable solution. Especially if the only part of Obamacare struck down is the waiver. Without the income from the waiver, the insurance companies would collapse under the Pre-Existing, No Cap and Adult Dependent clauses which are all fairly popular with the voters.

What I absolutely will not support is the McCain plan, which was to actually tax my employer's contributions to my health insurance in order to try to dismantle the current system....without any kind of replacement system in place.

The GOP was never in favor of the mandate. There was never any GOP legislation that included one. This is merely a factoid by the left to confuse the issue.

Americans have rejected single payer overwhelmingly. The reason it didnt get through the Congress is because the votes weren't there. It is silly to think it will pass next time.

No, with the mandate gone, the rest of the legislation will be gone too. The Supreme Court cannot arrogate to itself the power to re-write legislation Congress failed to draft appropriately.
That will bring up back to where we were 2 years ago. And that wasn't so bad. Over 90% of the people were very happy with their health care and insurance. The more people saw of Obamacare, the less they liked it. The legislation is less popular now than it was when it passed. And we havent even seen the new taxes comign from it.
We go back to small fixes. The removal of pre-existing conditions was popular. We will see that in some form. Personally I think insurance companies ought to be able to price those pre-existings into the policy if someone wants it. That's what happens with life insurance.
The issue is too much gov't regulation rather than not enough.

 

[The Rabbi]

A lot of people are already getting financial benefit from the Affordable Care Act, myself included.

Those people will be pretty ticked if they have to lose that money just because the damn Rs don't like the president.

What kind of benefit are you getting, given that benefits don't really kick in until later?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Romney had no leverage on Obama on the "Obamacare" issue, especially as "Romneycare" is part of the lexicon.

However, I don't see that the GOP gave up anything on the issue by nominating Romney.

I have to confess, I don't see how to reconcile these two ideas.
If you accept that the majority of people oppose this bill
then the GOP could have used this against Obama - but you also say Romney has no leverage on the issue
so it seems the GOP did give away that leverage by nominating Romney - unless your point is that the GOP gave away nothing because it was always going to be gone by November anyway.

Yeah. I think it was seen as pretty much inevitable that the SCOTUS would toss out the Mandate. The reasoning that the Mandate is covered under the Interstate Commerce clause is very weak, at best. The only chance that Obamacare had of surviving a SCOTUS review was if the SCOTUS was stacked with appointees from Democrat Presidents, and it isn't currently. So once it got to the SCOTUS it's pretty well seen as done.

The only real question is will the Court limit itself to striking down just the Mandate, or will they kill the whole bill. Killing the mandate only would effectively put a ticking clock on the collapse of the insurance industry as a whole. Killing the whole bill could have a few really nasty political outcomes as the commercials from the Super PAC's start airing the story of poor unfortunate Timmy who's now going to die because the No Cap was tossed.

I don't see that nominating Romney gave up any real ground, as in the long run it'll be a moot point.

 

[Jackson]

If the Supremes toss it, we enter a more chaotic state than an orderly legislative repeal process which would begin with a simple waiver for all 50 states by Romney.

The Democrats argument: 'We spent two years on it, shoved it thru like the totalitarians we are, and totally fucked it up in the process. Let us try again.'


The Republican argument: 'Obamacare is an embarrassing fuck up and an example of what happens when communists try to force their values thru on the rest of America. Time to let us tackle the healthcare problem the right way and create solutions that work for all Americans.'

The choice is not a hard decision to make for any reasonable person.

The people's argument: The Democrats spent two years on this monstrosity of a bill that no one could read while we waited for a solution to the economic crisis and we are still waiting for jobs and now have an intolerable debt.

 

[The Rabbi]

If the Supremes toss it, we enter a more chaotic state than an orderly legislative repeal process which would begin with a simple waiver for all 50 states by Romney.

The Democrats argument: 'We spent two years on it, shoved it thru like the totalitarians we are, and totally fucked it up in the process. Let us try again.'


The Republican argument: 'Obamacare is an embarrassing fuck up and an example of what happens when communists try to force their values thru on the rest of America. Time to let us tackle the healthcare problem the right way and create solutions that work for all Americans.'

The choice is not a hard decision to make for any reasonable person.

The people's argument: The Democrats spent two years on this monstrosity of a bill that no one could read while we waited for a solution to the economic crisis and we are still waiting for jobs and now have an intolerable debt.

Bingo.
The Obama Administration made a decision very early on to push health care over the economy. They did it for all kinds of political reasons.
Now it's back-fired. The GOP can point to their total and complete incompetence. Their signature achievement is an unworkable unconstitutional tatters that over-rode the true will of the people with smarmy subterfuges and maneuvres. The rest of their policies have been abject failures of every kind.
And those are the good points.