Pilgrim's Electoral College Prediction Thread

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

So I just voted, Romney actually just voted in my state too

The lines @ the polls were huge....and I may have been overly optimistic with my prediction so I'm revising to 295/243 Romney/Obama but I'm keeping my 1 million popular vote prediction!

 

[kwc57]

So I just voted, Romney actually just voted in my state too

The lines @ the polls were huge....and I may have been overly optimistic with my prediction so I'm revising to 295/243 Romney/Obama but I'm keeping my 1 million popular vote prediction!

I went before work and stood in line behind at least 200 people. It took only about 30 minutes.

 

[Uncensored2008]

KFI Radio tossed out that early morning and late afternoon voting strongly favors Republicans. Mid-day voting tends to favor democrats.

 

[rightwinger]

Obama 303
Romney 235

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

With one day to go before the first polls close what do you predict the electoral college results will be?

You can explain why if you want or just post your prediction. Winner gets bragging rights and some rep points from me (now you're excited, aren't you! )


My prediction:

Romney:301
Obama: 237

I feel that a few people, when polled, actually say Obama but when they get in the booth are going to pick Romney. I think it will be a very close race in each state.

Popular vote...I think Romney wins the popular by ~1,000,000 votes.


What are your predictions?

keeper post: pssst, is PillGraham the Rush Limbaugh of USMB?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

there are predictions in many threads here.,

what a waste of bandwidth

 

[Uncensored2008]

there are predictions in many threads here.,

what a waste of bandwidth

Do you have gasoline, rags, and empty bottles ready, Dainty?

Obama is losing this, you know.......

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

there are predictions in many threads here.,

what a waste of bandwidth

Do you have gasoline, rags, and empty bottles ready, Dainty?

Obama is losing this, you know.......

Occupy USMB!!!!!!​

 

[Darkwind]

Well, as Tebow said, "I predict that the Democrats will take an early lead, but will fall behind as soon as the Republicans get out of work."

Romney 284, Obama 252

I feel this is probably the closest guess right here.

 

[mamooth]

Still O303-R235. There's been no change since yesterday to justify any change in that call.

 

[Zander]

Electoral college
Romney 315
Doh!bama 223

Popular vote
Romney 52%
Doh!bama 47%

 

[skookerasbil]

At the end of the night, people will realize that they have spent far too much time looking at these polls..........

Why I know Romney will win:

1) In 2008, Obama bested McCain by only a handful of points in many swing states. He was the most pathetic candidate ever and got fairly close even after an economic collapse.
2) A fair % of whites are not voting Obama this time......but wont admit it in polling.
3) These has been no measure of the loathing for Obama by anti-Obama voters.......except anecdotally........but its never been more intense.......ever. These people are ALL voting today if they have to stand in line for 10 hours.
4) The optimist candidate ALWAYS WINS ( like Obama 2008......Kennedy 1960........Romney 2012..............Carter 1976...........Reagan 1980 )
5) Incumbents in a general election and in a crappy economy go down hard..........ALWAYS.
6) Small/acute issues/news stories dont matter in general elections ( ie: Hurricane Sandy). Big issues do.
7) All these polls are weighted DEM.........big..........no way they turn out in 2008 numbers ( watch early Virginia returns tonight )
8) State economies' health = 100% predictor the last 9 elections Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder
9) 23 million people out of work
10) You cant bamboozle independents twice in a row.........they decided 2008.........they decide it today.




Virginia polls close at 7PM tonight.............Romney will be on top. Conservatives can start celebrating because it will be THE measure on countrywide turnoout............and make todays polling #'s moot.

 

[Foxfyre]

I am not going to predict, but believe with all my heart that the wise patriot will vote for Romney, and I am hoping with all my heart that he does win as I am convinced that is the surest way to have a chance to get this country back on track. Romney was not my choice as the nominee, but once he became the nominee I have done some pretty exhaustive research. He is honest, compassionate, generous, caring, knowledgable, competent, and has his motives in the right place. After four years experience, I cannot attach any of those attributes to Obama. I now believe that out of the whole GOP field to pick from, Romney was the right choice.

My second wish is that whomever wins tonight will do so conclusively so we don't have endless days and weeks of challenges and recounts.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Obama 275, Romney 263. I know a lot of folks that are giving Iowa to Obama for a total of 281, but I think that's a bit optimistic.

 

[rightwinger]

Beyond Obama winning 303-235

I have the Senate remaining at 53-47 for the Dems

I have the House at 235-200 for the Republicans

 

[Dr.Traveler]

My second wish is that whomever wins tonight will do so conclusively so we don't have endless days and weeks of challenges and recounts.

I don't think that will happen. Nothing I've seen so far indicates a landslide in the works, and if Ohio is truly the deciding state we won't know the results until Nov 17th. And I promise you now, both sides will lawyer up in advance.

Best case scenario I see for Mitt is Obama winning Ohio, but Mitt sneaking out a win in Wisconsin due to the weather being a bit inclement. Wisconsinites are pretty tough, so I don't think the weather will have much impact, but if it does that state will go Red and Romney can win without Ohio.

 

[Foxfyre]

My second wish is that whomever wins tonight will do so conclusively so we don't have endless days and weeks of challenges and recounts.

I don't think that will happen. Nothing I've seen so far indicates a landslide in the works, and if Ohio is truly the deciding state we won't know the results until Nov 17th. And I promise you now, both sides will lawyer up in advance.

Best case scenario I see for Mitt is Obama winning Ohio, but Mitt sneaking out a win in Wisconsin due to the weather being a bit inclement. Wisconsinites are pretty tough, so I don't think the weather will have much impact, but if it does that state will go Red and Romney can win without Ohio.

You may be right and an inconclusive result tonight would be the worst case scenario. But I am the eternal optimist and therefore have the luxury of hope. And that hope is that the one or two razor thin margins won't be what swings this election.

 

[Liability]

Beyond Obama winning 303-235

I have the Senate remaining at 53-47 for the Dems

I have the House at 235-200 for the Republicans

President Obama falls pitifully short. Mitt wins.

The Senate could go as well as 53 GOP to 46 Dim and 1 Socialist

The House may gain some GOP seats to retain its majority there.

 

[rightwinger]

Beyond Obama winning 303-235

I have the Senate remaining at 53-47 for the Dems

I have the House at 235-200 for the Republicans

President Obama falls pitifully short. Mitt wins.

The Senate could go as well as 53 GOP to 46 Dim and 1 Socialist

The House may gain some GOP seats to retain its majority there.

Damn...you really are leaving this board in style

 

[skookerasbil]

Simpleton analysis is rampant in here..............

People need to go to yesterdays CNN poll and read the fine print on thier model!!!! Read it and then ask yourself these simple questions.........

1) Is a single McCain voter voting for Obama today?

2) Are any 2008 Obama voters voting for Romney today?


Now go back and read the fine print on the CNN model from yesterday??