Discussion in 'Economy' started by Kevin_Kennedy, May 9, 2009.
How much of ANY market boost is an illusion? Think dot com bubble.
"People are not rushing into stocks, they're rushing out of cash"
Perceptive...given that cash is an illusion which works only so long as the amount of it is in some kind of sound realtionship to the amount of goods and services, he might be spot on.
How can the stock market be healthy while the labor market is in panic retreat mode?
if you print money faster than people can spend it the extra will go into "investing"
unfortunately this "investing" will be nothing but a bubble. or in our case we are trying to re-inflate a bubble that has popped by pumping air through a bigger hose than is the size of the hole in the bubble.
i like his prognosis for when the depression will end - NEVER
good one !
He was spectacularly wrong last year in his fund and his investors were crushed so his credibility isn't exactly solid.
As much I know he was damn right all the time.
doesn't matter who he is. it doesn't take a genius here - the stock market is going up at the same time as people are still being laid off in large numbers.
if all the businesses are doing so great - why are they laying people off ?
the stock market is thus an illusion. however that doesn't mean that it won't keep going up. why wouldn't it ? all the money being printed has to go SOMEWHERE ...
actually ONE THING could save the economy. at this point Asians know they will never get their money back ... and they know that in order for Americans to keep buying their crap they need to keep buying our worthless paper ... if they they decide to CONTINUE TO DO SO ( while knowing they will never get anything for that paper ) then the crisis will go away.
if the white house can bribe Chinese officials into doing this - awesome ! let's just hope they don't start assassinating Chinese politicians because WW3 would be bad ...
He has not been right all the time. He lost his clients a lot of money last year.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Peter Schiff Was Wrong
Right Forecast by Schiff, Wrong Plan? - WSJ.com
Every single stock market bottom has occurred when jobs losses were continuing. Every single one.
That's because the stock market is a leading indicator while employment is a lagging indicator. The stock market forecasts the turn in the economy while corporations react to an improving economy by stopping firing people and re-hiring again.
What worries me is that gas (now $2.30 in CT) and oil (now $51) has rebounded by relatively the same % margin as the stock markets, leading me to believe its inflation causing the rebound, and not an actual improvement. I don't expect unemployment numbers to change, at least in the private, productive bits of the economy, anytime soon.
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