- Jun 6, 2007
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Texas Governor Rick Perry who is running for the Republican nomination for President in the 2012 election acted like a complete idiot in his recent disparaging remarks about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke; Perry essentially said if Bernanke does another quantitative easing people in Texas would be treating the Fed Chairman pretty ugly and it would be a traitorous move on the Fed Chairman's part. First off, the country has been outstandingly lucky to have had Bernanke as head of the Fed over the last three to four year he is a first rate economist and head of a central bank, this guy has seen economic problems the world has never seen and written the book on how to address them if Bernanke says the Central Bank needs to do X,Y & Z Mr. Perry you just say "Thank you sir!".
There is quite a few readily foreseeable scenarios the economy could see over the next fifteen months that would call for the Federal Reserve Bank to implement another quantitative easing. One, if the anemic economic growth the country has been experiencing this year spirals negative sending the country into a recession where the country is facing deflation, deflation is debilitating on a consumer based economy it causes people to conserve money because the longer the consumer can hold onto the money the more the money will be worth. One option a central bank has to fight deflation is to increase the supply of money into the economy which results in investors, albeit the degree is hazy, driving up prices on various items in the economy which has a ripple effect through the economy. Secondly, if this supercommittee created by the 2011 debt ceiling legislation fails in its job to produce a bill that cuts deficit spending 1.2 trillion over ten years or the Congress fails to pass this legislation, Moody's and Fitch's credit rating services if they care about having a minimal amount of credibility will downgrade the credit rating of U.S. bonds below "triple A" which will almost certainly result in Treasury bond interest rates increasing (to attract investors) as the pool of U.S. sovereign debt investors shrinks because of the downgrade and if the Treasury bond interest rate increases high enough (remember Treasury bond rates affect home mortgage rate and other consumer rates) the Federal Reserve Bank will have to step in and buy Treasury Bonds to prop up lower interest rates on these bonds (quantitative easing) for the U.S. economy is too weak it can't take higher interest rates this will increase the rolls of the unemployed which the country just can't take it. Now the Wall Street Princes of Darkness ( excuse me just Princes) will say all this talk about downgrades causing Treasury Bond interest rates to increase is exaggeration, demagoguery, fear mongering and the like because the recent downgrade of U.S. Treasuries by S&P to "AA+" has resulted in ten year treasury bond prices decreasing not increasing need to get their heads out of their butts; the reason why this S&P downgrade didn't affect Treasury interest rates because it was treated by the investor community as not occurring, specifically since two of the three major credit rating agencies still graded U.S. bonds Triple A, the bonds kept that rating moreover S&P bungled the rating downgrade their estimates of U.S. debt over the next ten years was two trillion too high and part of the reason for the downgrade was their estimation that America politically can't successfully address the unaffordable entitlement growth rate and revenue raising problem which the world conclude the S&P jumped the gun, the supercommittee test still needs to be taken by U.S. politicians to resolve this issue. The princes of Wall Street also wrongfully believe that where are sovereign debt investors going to park their money if not in U.S. Treasury securities, their arrogance is palpable; it won't happen over night but a new industry will develop to help sovereign debt investors spread their assets throughout many non-U.S. sovereigns debt in addition to non-sovereign public debt throughout the world that is safe!
The really troubling thing about these Governor Perry's remarks is that unfortunately there isn't any good centrist candidates running for President in 2012 and since Barack Obama clearly can't do the job the Republican candidate will become the next President and Governor Perry so far is the strongest Republican candidate so to reiterate the point Rick Perry will likely become the next President of the United States. The troubling aspect of this considering Governor Perry's recent behavior is that the indications now are that he will appoint an idealogue, " a tight money supply economist", as next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank which is not a good move for America. The best interest of America are served by the person in the Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve Bank not being an idealogue but rather being an economist that does what the merits of the issues calls for, to put it another way that does what the economy needs for the Federal Reserve Board to achieve its dual mission of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices!
There is quite a few readily foreseeable scenarios the economy could see over the next fifteen months that would call for the Federal Reserve Bank to implement another quantitative easing. One, if the anemic economic growth the country has been experiencing this year spirals negative sending the country into a recession where the country is facing deflation, deflation is debilitating on a consumer based economy it causes people to conserve money because the longer the consumer can hold onto the money the more the money will be worth. One option a central bank has to fight deflation is to increase the supply of money into the economy which results in investors, albeit the degree is hazy, driving up prices on various items in the economy which has a ripple effect through the economy. Secondly, if this supercommittee created by the 2011 debt ceiling legislation fails in its job to produce a bill that cuts deficit spending 1.2 trillion over ten years or the Congress fails to pass this legislation, Moody's and Fitch's credit rating services if they care about having a minimal amount of credibility will downgrade the credit rating of U.S. bonds below "triple A" which will almost certainly result in Treasury bond interest rates increasing (to attract investors) as the pool of U.S. sovereign debt investors shrinks because of the downgrade and if the Treasury bond interest rate increases high enough (remember Treasury bond rates affect home mortgage rate and other consumer rates) the Federal Reserve Bank will have to step in and buy Treasury Bonds to prop up lower interest rates on these bonds (quantitative easing) for the U.S. economy is too weak it can't take higher interest rates this will increase the rolls of the unemployed which the country just can't take it. Now the Wall Street Princes of Darkness ( excuse me just Princes) will say all this talk about downgrades causing Treasury Bond interest rates to increase is exaggeration, demagoguery, fear mongering and the like because the recent downgrade of U.S. Treasuries by S&P to "AA+" has resulted in ten year treasury bond prices decreasing not increasing need to get their heads out of their butts; the reason why this S&P downgrade didn't affect Treasury interest rates because it was treated by the investor community as not occurring, specifically since two of the three major credit rating agencies still graded U.S. bonds Triple A, the bonds kept that rating moreover S&P bungled the rating downgrade their estimates of U.S. debt over the next ten years was two trillion too high and part of the reason for the downgrade was their estimation that America politically can't successfully address the unaffordable entitlement growth rate and revenue raising problem which the world conclude the S&P jumped the gun, the supercommittee test still needs to be taken by U.S. politicians to resolve this issue. The princes of Wall Street also wrongfully believe that where are sovereign debt investors going to park their money if not in U.S. Treasury securities, their arrogance is palpable; it won't happen over night but a new industry will develop to help sovereign debt investors spread their assets throughout many non-U.S. sovereigns debt in addition to non-sovereign public debt throughout the world that is safe!
The really troubling thing about these Governor Perry's remarks is that unfortunately there isn't any good centrist candidates running for President in 2012 and since Barack Obama clearly can't do the job the Republican candidate will become the next President and Governor Perry so far is the strongest Republican candidate so to reiterate the point Rick Perry will likely become the next President of the United States. The troubling aspect of this considering Governor Perry's recent behavior is that the indications now are that he will appoint an idealogue, " a tight money supply economist", as next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank which is not a good move for America. The best interest of America are served by the person in the Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve Bank not being an idealogue but rather being an economist that does what the merits of the issues calls for, to put it another way that does what the economy needs for the Federal Reserve Board to achieve its dual mission of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices!
