Permafrost

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Sep 29, 2011.

  1. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

    Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming
    Charles D. Kovena,b,1, Bruno Ringevala, Pierre Friedlingsteinc, Philippe Ciaisa, Patricia Cadulea, Dmitry Khvorostyanovd, Gerhard Krinnere, and Charles Tarnocaif
    + Author Affiliations

    aLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France;
    bEarth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720;
    cCollege of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom;
    dLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, École Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France;
    eLaboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble 1, Unité Mixte de Recherche 5183, F-38402 Grenoble, France; and
    fAgriculture and Agri-Foods Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0C5
    Edited* by Inez Y. Fung, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and approved July 12, 2011 (received for review March 24, 2011)

    Abstract
    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Russia may lose 30% of permafrost by 2050: official - Environment - The Independent

    Russia may lose 30% of permafrost by 2050: official

    AFP

    Sunday, 31 July 2011

    Russia's vast permafrost areas may shrink by a third by the middle of the century due to global warming, endangering infrastructure in the Arctic zone, an emergencies ministry official said Friday.


    "In the next 25 to 30 years, the area of permafrost in Russia may shrink by 10-18 percent," the head of the ministry's disaster monitoring department Andrei Bolov told the RIA Novosti news agency.

    "By the middle of the century, it can shrink by 15-30 percent, and the boundary of the permafrost may shift to the north-east by 150-200 kilometres," he said.

    The temperature of the zones of frozen soil in oil and gas-rich western Siberia territories will rise by up to two degrees Celsius to just three or four degrees below zero, he predicted.

    Permafrost, or soil that is permanently frozen, covers about 63 percent of Russia, but has been greatly affected by climate change in recent decades.
     
  3. syrenn
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    sounds to me as if they named it wrong

    it should be called temporaryfrost.

     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Human activities linked to warming and loss of sea ice
    HALF: Natural cycles are part of mix, scientists find; greenhouse gas has effect.

    By RICHARD MAUER
    rmauer@adn.com

    By RICHARD MAUER
    rmauer@adn.com
    Published: August 15th, 2011 04:11 PM
    Last Modified: August 15th, 2011 04:12 PM

    About half the recent record loss of Arctic sea ice can be blamed on global warming caused by human activity, according to a new study by scientists from the nation's leading climate research center.

    The peer-reviewed study, funded by the National Science Foundation, is the first to attribute a specific proportion of the ice melt to greenhouse gases and particulates from pollution.

    The study used supercomputers named Bluefire and Franklin and one of the world's most sophisticated climate models to reach its conclusions, said lead author Jennifer Kay, a staff scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The paper was published last week in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.



    Read more: Human activities linked to warming and loss of sea ice: Climate change | Alaska news at adn.com
     
  5. syrenn
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    Seriously.... the earth has been through many warming periods. The "permafrost" melted then too... so its not a "permanent" thing now is it?


     
  6. whitehall
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    whitehall Gold Member

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    Perma-revolution. The left is on the defensive so they will try to bore us with inane data. There are grooves in New York's Central Park's rocks that show a glacier that covered the east coast and carved out the Hudson River. The United States didn't do it, the Sun did.
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    And you said what?
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Why, yes, it has at that. Not only that, some were so rapid and extreme that much of the life present at the time died. And most of those times were created by rapid changes in the GHGs in the atmosphere. Changes that were natural in origin at the time. The present change, however, is of our own making.

    Past Climate Change | Science | Climate Change | U.S. EPA
     
  9. Mr. H.
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    Mr. H. Diamond Member

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    The concept is rather disconcerting.
     

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