Peak Oil.

[Vintij]

<img src="http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Pictures/EnergyCurveHistory3_op_800x203.jpg">


This is a graph of the energy blip known as the industrial revolution. A tiny second of energy obsession, specifically with oil as no other energy is manufactured at a fraction of the rate oil is.

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. oil-based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to shatter an oil-dependent economy

shortfalls in production as small as 5&#37; caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple in the 70s. The same thing happened in California a few years ago with natural gas: a production drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.

Many experts and scientists, and even Dick Cheney (who is an expert in this field) believe that an 8% yearly decline in oil production after "Peak oil" is not an unreasonable figure. "Peak oil" as you know is expected within 5 years if not happening already.

So lets do the math

An 8% yearly decline would cut global oil production by 50% in under nine years after "peak oil". If a 5% cut in production caused prices to triple in the 1970s, what do you think a 50% cut is going to do?

Most people call this the "post industrial stone age" which I think a little dramatic but its not hard to figure out the major blackouts will occur the second oil production has dropped by 50%. Blackouts are expected around 2012 I believe, thats just an estimate but its not an outragous one. Thats just the US we are talking about. The world figure of half production will occur in about 40 years. The entire WORLDS production is what I just said. Not the US.

Dont think that its just the gas in your car that will be effected. Approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US. Ofcourse that is relative to where you live in the US.

Im not trying to bring anyone down, Im just advocating what hubbert did in the 50's. He rightly predicted a decline in the 70s, and a peak production in the 90s-00s. Its going to happen people, I think its time to get someone in office who will fund research on alternative energy sources. Thats much more important than anything we have going on right now, from climate change, to war, to gay marriage, to immigration. None of that will matter if we cant manufacture renewable sources of energy, or at least another form of fossile fuel.

Nuclear fission is what we use now and its used in china alot, but FUSION is the key to our long term survival. Research must go into FUSION on a federal level. I think its about 50-70 years in our technological future before we come close to that type of mass fusion, but why not start now? Its basically the holy grail of natural renewable energy.

 

[BaronVonBigmeat]

Fusion is nice and all, but Fission reactors exist here and now, and can provide nearly limitless power for centuries to come if need be. Free markets can adjust as the supply of cheap oil dwindles out. The question is how much will they be hampered by bad government policy. For example, severe licensing restrictions on nuclear plants, or property tax disincentives which effectively punish railroads for upgrading to electrified rail.

And anyway, the problem isn't a lack of energy per se; it's more like a lack of portable energy. Or portable/cheap/compact/can be refilled in 5 minutes energy, to be exact. Fertilizers and plastics and other hydrocarbons can be synthesized from nothing more than water and carbon, denser cities and electrified rail can solve the transportation problem, etc. And we still have coal-to-diesel technology, which has become cheaper in recent years, not to mention the unbelievably vast stores of methane hydrate trapped in the deep ocean.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

The enviro nuts would go into seizures if we actually did what they want and stopped using oil and switched to the only real current solution, nuclear energy.

What I love is the insistance on useing electricity... umm where do you think it comes from? Most comes from... wait for it.... wait for it.... OIL. Or even worse, from a nutters point of view COAL.

 

[Paulie]

The enviro nuts would go into seizures if we actually did what they want and stopped using oil and switched to the only real current solution, nuclear energy.

What I love is the insistance on useing electricity... umm where do you think it comes from? Most comes from... wait for it.... wait for it.... OIL. Or even worse, from a nutters point of view COAL.

Electric powered cars are probably the biggest argument for using electricity, as you put it. That does away with internal combustion and the need for gasoline, but it still doesn't do away with the need for that same oil that you (not YOU, just in general) were trying to do away with needing. The plastics, the pleather, the lubrication for moving parts, they all require that SAME OIL.

No matter what, our lives depend on oil. It will never go away. There is an infinite need for raw petroleum. And as long as this is the case, the most dominant country in the world will always be chasing it.

I don't know if Peak Oil is a myth or not...haven't looked into it a whole lot...but if it is, it's a damn good one to use for the justification of chasing it.

 

[Vintij]

Electric powered cars are probably the biggest argument for using electricity, as you put it. That does away with internal combustion and the need for gasoline, but it still doesn't do away with the need for that same oil that you (not YOU, just in general) were trying to do away with needing. The plastics, the pleather, the lubrication for moving parts, they all require that SAME OIL.

No matter what, our lives depend on oil. It will never go away. There is an infinite need for raw petroleum. And as long as this is the case, the most dominant country in the world will always be chasing it.

I don't know if Peak Oil is a myth or not...haven't looked into it a whole lot...but if it is, it's a damn good one to use for the justification of chasing it.

Peak oil is not a myth, It will happen and everyone agrees that our oil is not a renewable source of energy. It is a fossile fuel, those dont last forever. Therefore peak oil will happen.

Its not so much of eliminating oil all together, because your right, oil is used sparingly in other industries but most of it is used for making gasoline to power cars and city's. The idea is to use it efficiently enough in cars, so that all these other industries can last for hundreds of years using oil, without shortages. Its the oil in our cars and our power plants that is being consumed at an alarming rate. All we have to do is stretch it out, not eliminate it all together.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

Peak oil is not a myth, It will happen and everyone agrees that our oil is not a renewable source of energy. It is a fossile fuel, those dont last forever. Therefore peak oil will happen.

Its not so much of eliminating oil all together, because your right, oil is used sparingly in other industries but most of it is used for making gasoline to power cars and city's. The idea is to use it efficiently enough in cars, so that all these other industries can last for hundreds of years using oil, without shortages. Its the oil in our cars and our power plants that is being consumed at an alarming rate. All we have to do is stretch it out, not eliminate it all together.

Ever read the consumption rate of oil used to power supertnakers and other large ships? Shall we revert to sail? Maybe we can make electric powered ships. No one is ever gonna go along with commercial nuclear powered ships.

As for electricity... something like 4 percent comes from water, another equally small part from wind, the vast majority comes from coal and Oil ( fuel type) powered plants.

We need to build Nuclear power plants to replace the fuel plants we have now. And we should cut back on coal as well.

The idea that electric power will safe us is ignorant of the reality of WHERE the electricity comes from. Same with the idea of using FOOD sources for alternate fuel. If we use the food for fuel, it is not available as FOOD.

Now hybrids are getting smarter. The ones that use the brakes to recharge the batteries is great, as long as your not doing any long distance highway traveling, in city you will always be repowering your batteries and at NO cost in another fuel.

Solar power needs to get more efficient as does wind and Sea power. It takes a lot of money and time to get these techs into a real profitable condition so that they can be used efficiently where they are able to work.

 

[Vintij]

Ever read the consumption rate of oil used to power supertnakers and other large ships? Shall we revert to sail? Maybe we can make electric powered ships. No one is ever gonna go along with commercial nuclear powered ships.

As for electricity... something like 4 percent comes from water, another equally small part from wind, the vast majority comes from coal and Oil ( fuel type) powered plants.

We need to build Nuclear power plants to replace the fuel plants we have now. And we should cut back on coal as well.

The idea that electric power will safe us is ignorant of the reality of WHERE the electricity comes from. Same with the idea of using FOOD sources for alternate fuel. If we use the food for fuel, it is not available as FOOD.

Now hybrids are getting smarter. The ones that use the brakes to recharge the batteries is great, as long as your not doing any long distance highway traveling, in city you will always be repowering your batteries and at NO cost in another fuel.

Solar power needs to get more efficient as does wind and Sea power. It takes a lot of money and time to get these techs into a real profitable condition so that they can be used efficiently where they are able to work.

I agree with you about becoming more efficient in solar and wind/hydrogen. The problem right now is we dont have an efficient fuel cell to power these things. We have fuel cells right now that will eliminate any chance of making a profit due to the cost of manufacturing them on a large scale. Right now we cant do that, but we will be able to with a smaller, more effieciently powerd fuel cell for hydrogen power, and solar solar power. As well as nuclear.

 

[RetiredGySgt]

I agree with you about becoming more efficient in solar and wind/hydrogen. The problem right now is we dont have an efficient fuel cell to power these things. We have fuel cells right now that will eliminate any chance of making a profit due to the cost of manufacturing them on a large scale. Right now we cant do that, but we will be able to with a smaller, more effieciently powerd fuel cell for hydrogen power, and solar solar power. As well as nuclear.

Yup, the tech is not refined enough. Not enough money is going into it. The Power Companies are not interested in funding it, nor is big oil. The Government is inefficient BUT they can provide money and provide a major boost in research and improving the technologies.

I am not for bigger Government but some things are simply to obviously of a National Security issue to ignore. This is one. Funding should be encouraged by any means possible for Solar, wind, sea and improved Nuclear power. As well as research into making a usable fuel from non food vegetation.

It takes years to build power plants and systems. Nuclear works now and is safe, it should be hot tracked and be replacing the oil, gas and coal power plants everywhere possible.

 

[DeadCanDance]

Yup, the tech is not refined enough. Not enough money is going into it. The Power Companies are not interested in funding it, nor is big oil. The Government is inefficient BUT they can provide money and provide a major boost in research and improving the technologies.

I am not for bigger Government but some things are simply to obviously of a National Security issue to ignore. This is one. Funding should be encouraged by any means possible for Solar, wind, sea and improved Nuclear power. As well as research into making a usable fuel from non food vegetation.

It takes years to build power plants and systems. Nuclear works now and is safe, it should be hot tracked and be replacing the oil, gas and coal power plants everywhere possible.

I am not for bigger Government but some things are simply to obviously of a National Security issue to ignore. This is one. Funding should be encouraged by any means possible for Solar, wind, sea and improved Nuclear power. As well as research into making a usable fuel from non food vegetation.

Reagan fans and republicans laughed at Jimmy Carter for the past 30 years, when he suggested this.

I guess we're all on board now - better late than never.

 

[Semper Fi]

I am not for bigger Government but some things are simply to obviously of a National Security issue to ignore. This is one. Funding should be encouraged by any means possible for Solar, wind, sea and improved Nuclear power. As well as research into making a usable fuel from non food vegetation.

Reagan fans and republicans laughed at Jimmy Carter for the past 30 years, when he suggested this.

I guess we're all on board now - better late than never.

And 40 years ago the M16 was a space weapon. And 250 years ago owning slaves was no big deal. Ideas and opinions change as necessary and as time marches on, what's your point?

 

[KissMy]

There is no need for government programs. If peak oil comes to pass prices will cause the free market to adjust. Oil has just been cheaper than other forms of energy. Once something else gets cheaper people will start using that.

By the way Russia was running out of oil in the 1950's but are now the worlds largest exporter. Why? Because contrary to popular myth oil does not just come from dead plants & animals. The earth continuously produces oil. It comes up through cracks in faults & pools up underground or seeps to the surface where we discovered it. Russia discovered during their oil crisis that the ignorant western scientific establishment is more a political religion than science. Russia drilled through the crystalline basement & found more oil than it can use & that is what they have been selling us stupid westerners for years. Russia also drilled the crystalline basement & found oil under Vietnam.

Scientist know there is vast oil under the crystalline basement in the earths interior.

Oil demand may out strip supply for a period but production will not peak & then drop off a cliff. Because Oil is also Abiotic

 

[Big Fitz]

Yup, the tech is not refined enough. Not enough money is going into it. The Power Companies are not interested in funding it, nor is big oil. The Government is inefficient BUT they can provide money and provide a major boost in research and improving the technologies.

I am not for bigger Government but some things are simply to obviously of a National Security issue to ignore. This is one. Funding should be encouraged by any means possible for Solar, wind, sea and improved Nuclear power. As well as research into making a usable fuel from non food vegetation.

It takes years to build power plants and systems. Nuclear works now and is safe, it should be hot tracked and be replacing the oil, gas and coal power plants everywhere possible.

I am not for bigger Government but some things are simply to obviously of a National Security issue to ignore. This is one. Funding should be encouraged by any means possible for Solar, wind, sea and improved Nuclear power. As well as research into making a usable fuel from non food vegetation.

Reagan fans and republicans laughed at Jimmy Carter for the past 30 years, when he suggested this.

I guess we're all on board now - better late than never.

Nope. Not all on board.

Nor is the Earth, as we keep finding nice deposits of oil... that are... ummm... quickly made politically off limits by greenies trying to destroy western civilization, capitalism and humanity for the sake of 'mother earth'.

 

[KissMy]

Nope. Not all on board.

Nor is the Earth, as we keep finding nice deposits of oil... that are... ummm... quickly made politically off limits by greenies trying to destroy western civilization, capitalism and humanity for the sake of 'mother earth'.

I know. I am so sick of these mother earth / WTO / Biological Diversity / new world order / global government fucks all making a buck off of enslaving our ass. They have their own religion & even a new ten commandments that spell death for the rest of us. Bill Clinton signed off on this crap. This is how we beat Clinton at his game

Find out how to protect your rights HERE

 

[Samson]

Nope. Not all on board.

Nor is the Earth, as we keep finding nice deposits of oil... that are... ummm... quickly made politically off limits by greenies trying to destroy western civilization, capitalism and humanity for the sake of 'mother earth'.

I know. I am so sick of these mother earth / WTO / Biological Diversity / new world order / global government fucks all making a buck off of enslaving our ass. They have their own religion & even a new ten commandments that spell death for the rest of us. Bill Clinton signed off on this crap. This is how we beat Clinton at his game

Find out how to protect your rights HERE

Yep, but it might give consolation to you that they've been around for the past 40 years, and still haven't been able to change basic economic's: Consumers will buy the least expensive product, and for the next 15 years, there's no reason to expect that fossil fuels will not continue to be the least expensive product.

Given this, the arguement becomes: how dire an economic impact will be the change to the NEXT most expensive energy source(s)?

On the extreme, you have the "Chicken Littles," that predict this change will usher in the 4 horseman of some apocolypse of biblical proportions. These exist on both ends of the political spectrum for their own interests:

The "Right" argues that a strong military will be the only way to prepare for this eventuality.

The "Left" argues that we must all begin hugging trees.

My reality is somewhere in the middle. I don't see an "Oil Peak" as much as I do an "Oil Plateu" lasting 20-30 years, during which time alternatives will replace the slowly increasing costs of fossil fuels. Bell-weathers to support this thesis are the EU and, to a greater extreme, Japan: i.e. expect the USA's economies to become more like these, lagging by about 15 years. Niether of these economies are great, but gangs of brain eating zombies aren't roving the countysides.

Happily, the USA has these bell-weathers so that it MAY adjust its policies and practices so it might not experience the wild economic fluxuations inherent in economies that have no (Japan) or few (EU) domestic energy resources. Also these bell-weathers will develope technology that the USA will adopt and improve.

 

[watchingfromafar]

as much as I do an "Oil Plateu" lasting 20-30 years, during which time alternatives will replace the slowly increasing costs of fossil fuels.

At the current rate of consumption all known oil reserves will be gone in 15-20 years. But don't despair, there is a thriving renewable force coming to our rescue.

Here are a few to get you in the loop

Renewable energy links | International Energy Forum
Green Power Talk
Global Renewable Energy Forum 2019: The Road to Carbon-neutrality
and for a real time look, visit
TV CHANNEL, "sustainable Energy"
217 CNBCW
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