Paul Ryan is the VP pick

[Lakhota]

 

[thanatos144]

I fins it amusing that all the progressives have is Ryan liked Atlas Shrugged lol cause in thier ignorant minds that book is worse then the Marxist Manifesto lol

No, what's really amusing is how he's as big a hypocrite as Rand was herself.

I would say the only hypocrite here is you. Rand paid into that social security.

 

[thanatos144]

If he was a Wiener he would bs taking naked pictures of himself and sexually harassing random women.

 

[EriktheRed]

I fins it amusing that all the progressives have is Ryan liked Atlas Shrugged lol cause in thier ignorant minds that book is worse then the Marxist Manifesto lol

No, what's really amusing is how he's as big a hypocrite as Rand was herself.

I would say the only hypocrite here is you. Rand pages into that social security.

Say that last part in English.

 

[thanatos144]

No, what's really amusing is how he's as big a hypocrite as Rand was herself.

I would say the only hypocrite here is you. Rand pages into that social security.

Say that last part in English.

I fixed my phones spell check

 

[EriktheRed]

I would say the only hypocrite here is you. Rand pages into that social security.

Say that last part in English.

I fixed my phones spell check

What is "pages into that social security "?

 

[Wetnibbler]

posted 08-15-2012 02:56 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Right, the first fully post-annoouncment poll is out, by YouGov & The Economist. And their findings show.....

Obama leading Roney by 3-points, 47% to 44%. The problem being, last week, they reported The Prez only leading by 1-point.

Standard proviso: "It's just ONE poll". But it's one helluva one to start the post-announcment slew with.

All right, it's not the only post-announcement poll, but it is the first that wasn't put out by either Gallup or Rassmussen as part of their rolling-average daily trackers. But just wait on that for a bit....


Harry Enten at The Guardian crunched some numbers and says that most candidates should expect to see a net gain of around 4-points after a Veep-pick announcment. There's some ups and downs in there: Ferraro and Bentsen only brought their ticket a 2-point bounce, while Gore's gave Clinton 12 points, just 1-point more than Kemp gave Dole the following cycle. But the median bounce is +4 (The mean works out to +6, for those counting).

Nate Silver as might be expected, has a few concerns with Enten's methodology. Not big ones, but he suggests that just as Enten took away Quayle's influence on the numbers (he was announced at the GOP Convention), so too should both Palin and Leiberman, who were announced between the Party Conventions -- a time when both candidates historically gain a bounce anyway. Thus, goes the argument, how much of the bounce was accounted for by the Conventions, and by the Veep choices?

The difference? Not much; as Silver notes: "...[A] median bounce of three percentage points, and an average of five."

Okay.

Silver than looks at both Gallup and Rasmussen's numbers, as well as ublic Policy Polling’s weekly national tracking poll. And thus far....well, expectations of a big bounce may be a bit over-inflated. Silver explains:

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...[There’s] something of a consensus in the polls, showing a net gain for Mr. Romney of between zero and two percentage points since the announcement of Mr. Ryan.

The consensus is not quite as robust as it looks — we’re mostly relying on data from just two polling firms — and whatever signal there might be is competing against statistical noise.

I can’t rule out the possibility that, a few days from now, we’ll be talking about a significant bounce for Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan — or about how there seems to be none at all.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Silver gets fairly invovled with his analysis, but warns against any conclusions that you have to jump to reach -- there's still a lot of info coming in, and a lot of it will almost certainly contradict each other.

But, as he also notes, the prognosis, right now, for a big bounce doesn't look good....

 

[EriktheRed]

You should include a link to that and maybe emphasize the point, too, which I gather is that the Ryan pick hasn't produced much of a bounce.