Path to 270

[courseofhistory]

The path to 270

Where Do We Stand Now?

[div class="excerpt"]The popular vote polls are all well and good, but in the end, don't matter. In reality, only 538 people get to vote for President--the presidential electors. As we have been pointing out since June 4th, if Obama wins the states the Democrats have won five times in a row, which seems quite likely, he has a base of 242 electoral votes. He also seems likely to win Nevada and New Mexico, bringing him to 253. How might he get the remaining 17? The scenarios are below. The swing states being fought over and the EVs are: Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).

Romney's job is to make sure that none of these scenarios hold. This means he must win Florida and Ohio and probably North Carolina. He can lose Virginia, provided that he wins every other swing state. But even if he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, he is still not home free. Even under these circumstances, he needs to win one of Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he manages to win one of the normally blue states, like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, he gets other routes to 270, but these seem unlikely.[/div]

 

[Old Rocks]

75% chance for the President;

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[emilynghiem]

Dear COH: Please see my post about reforming the Electoral College.
I think I messed up the poll where it should have allowed multiple options, but isn't.
If you would like to join me in writing up and posting a petition to the Electoral College,
I would love to publicize the idea of spitting the votes proportionally by party % per state.
More people participate in elections if there is proportional representation, so they feel their input is being counted. Will you please respond to the post and/or consider a public petition to the Electors since this race will be so close? Thank you for your informative post.
I agree it must be reformed, and I like the ideas from the Green Party that could be integrated into the current system to protect and balance both the popular vote and the Elector system that was designed to include all states equally regardless of population.
Yours truly,
Emily Nghiem at hotmail

The path to 270

Where Do We Stand Now?

[div class="excerpt"]The popular vote polls are all well and good, but in the end, don't matter. In reality, only 538 people get to vote for President--the presidential electors. As we have been pointing out since June 4th, if Obama wins the states the Democrats have won five times in a row, which seems quite likely, he has a base of 242 electoral votes. He also seems likely to win Nevada and New Mexico, bringing him to 253. How might he get the remaining 17? The scenarios are below. The swing states being fought over and the EVs are: Florida (29), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).

Romney's job is to make sure that none of these scenarios hold. This means he must win Florida and Ohio and probably North Carolina. He can lose Virginia, provided that he wins every other swing state. But even if he wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, he is still not home free. Even under these circumstances, he needs to win one of Colorado, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he manages to win one of the normally blue states, like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, he gets other routes to 270, but these seem unlikely.[/div]

 

[ThirdTerm]

A new poll showed that Romney is now leading Obama by 2 percent in Ohio and this is the first poll in weeks which found Romney ahead in the must-win state and the momentum is clearly shifting toward Romney in crucial swing states, reflecting his commanding lead in national polls. No Republican presidential candidate has won the presidency without carrying Ohio and the state is the classic bellwether, picking every presidential winner since 1964. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Ohio voters shows Romney with 50 percent support to President Obama’s 48 percent. One percent likes some other candidate, while another one percent remains undecided.

Election 2012: Ohio President - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[kwc57]

And having all of those disenfranchised illegal aliens and dead people doesn't hurt either.