Party affiliation

[8537]

Suppose you wanted to find out what the breakdown of Dems, Reps and I's in the US is right now.

You can't afford a census, so that method is out.

How would you go about determining the most accurate possible breakdown?

<I'll be back in an hour to find out what we've come up with...>

 

[amrchaos]

You can get that information from state registrations and do the math at home.

It is probably cheaper to email the government for the info--and some states have the break down listed on their websites.


That seems like a highschool project. Why don't you get a little fancy with it and try to color code the US map with shades from blue to white to red?

 

[PoliticalChic]

Suppose you wanted to find out what the breakdown of Dems, Reps and I's in the US is right now.

You can't afford a census, so that method is out.

How would you go about determining the most accurate possible breakdown?

<I'll be back in an hour to find out what we've come up with...>

Don't hurry......

 

[kaz]

Go out on the street and ask three people

 

[8537]

You can get that information from state registrations and do the math at home.

It is probably cheaper to email the government for the info--and some states have the break down listed on their websites.


That seems like a highschool project. Why don't you get a little fancy with it and try to color code the US map with shades from blue to white to red?

Not all states require one to declare a party in order to register and the information is not current.

 

[SniperFire]

Suppose you wanted to find out what the breakdown of Dems, Reps and I's in the US is right now.

You can't afford a census, so that method is out.

How would you go about determining the most accurate possible breakdown?

<I'll be back in an hour to find out what we've come up with...>

Don't hurry......

He wasn't missed.


LOL

 

[8537]

Suppose you wanted to find out what the breakdown of Dems, Reps and I's in the US is right now.

You can't afford a census, so that method is out.

How would you go about determining the most accurate possible breakdown?

<I'll be back in an hour to find out what we've come up with...>

Don't hurry......

He wasn't missed.


LOL

I see neither of you are willing to offer an idea. Color me surprised. math is hard.

 

[asaratis]

Suppose you wanted to find out what the breakdown of Dems, Reps and I's in the US is right now.

You can't afford a census, so that method is out.

How would you go about determining the most accurate possible breakdown?

<I'll be back in an hour to find out what we've come up with...>

I would ask each registered voter to send me a dollar bill with D, R, L, I or O (other) written on it in black highlighter depending on their party affiliation. Then I would count the D's, the R's, the L's, the I's and the O's before spending any of the money. Then I would donate the money to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

 

[emptystep]

What is your criteria for the quality of the information? What are you planning to use it for?

There is this link which I assume is four years old.
How many registered Democrats are there in the US

 

[8537]

What is your criteria for the quality of the information? What are you planning to use it for?

There is this link which I assume is four years old.
How many registered Democrats are there in the US

I'm trying to figure out why people think that every poll "over samples" Democrats. In order to know if a poll over sampled Democrats, you would need to know what the current breakdown by party affiliation actually is.

 

[emptystep]

As stated earlier running your own poll is probably not an option. There is the question of whether the person making the accusations is creditable and also if the poll is creditable. I looked a little and the Pew poll seems to be the prime target of accusations of oversampling Democrats. I could give my opinion on that if you would like interested. I would have to research it a little more. I think it is more a question for yourself however as to what you believe.

 

[8537]

As stated earlier running your own poll is probably not an option. There is the question of whether the person making the accusations is creditable and also if the poll is creditable. I looked a little and the Pew poll seems to be the prime target of accusations of oversampling Democrats. I could give my opinion on that if you would like interested. I would have to research it a little more. I think it is more a question for yourself however as to what you believe.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say. We have a whole bunch of recent random sample polls that indicate there are between 2% and 12% more Democrats than Republicans. Almost all fall within each others MoE.

Barring any solid explanation as to why they all contain systemic, single-direction bias why would we not conclude that the current population is approximately 2% to 12% more Democrats than Republicans?

 

[Dr.House]

Assume you are only interested in the cheap registered voter statistics...

Anything that samples more of one party vs. another is over sampling...

For a random sample of pure unknown RVs, if it comes out that more than one party was selected, then it was over sampled... You need to know your demographics well enough to say there's a legitimate reason for the over sampling, otherwise you are assuming that more of one party will actually show up on election day... This cannot be done with certainty with RVs...

 

[8537]

Assume you are only interested in the cheap registered voter statistics...

Anything that samples more of one party vs. another is over sampling...

Really? So there are always the exact same number of Dems and Reps in the US?

The poll is the sample. Why is this hard to grasp?

 

[8537]

We have a whole bunch of recent random sample polls that indicate there are between 2% and 12% more Democrats than Republicans. Almost all fall within each others MoE.

Barring any solid explanation as to why they all contain systemic, single-direction bias why would we not conclude that the current population is approximately 2% to 12% more Democrats than Republicans?

 

[Dr.House]

Assume you are only interested in the cheap registered voter statistics...

Anything that samples more of one party vs. another is over sampling...

For a random sample of pure unknown RVs, if it comes out that more than one party was selected, then it was over sampled... You need to know your demographics well enough to say there's a legitimate reason for the over sampling, otherwise you are assuming that more of one party will actually show up on election day... This cannot be done with certainty with RVs...

Really? So there are always the exact same number of Dems and Reps in the US?

Other than you, who said that?

The poll is the sample. Why is this hard to grasp?

The goal of the poll is to find out how the election would turn out were the election held at that point in time... If you are polling registered voters, then you are asking people who may or may not show up... Not all registered voters vote... You want a venn diagram to help you out? This is why RV polls are "meh"...

Any RANDOM sample of RVs that contains more than one party is considered over sampled for that party...

 

[Truthmatters]

Voters are leaving main parties in droves


Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents. But Democrats have lost the most &#8212; 1.7 million, or 3.9%, from 2008.


as of last december

 

[Truthmatters]

There is a reason the republicans try to keep dems from voting

 

[8537]

Assume you are only interested in the cheap registered voter statistics...

Anything that samples more of one party vs. another is over sampling...

For a random sample of pure unknown RVs, if it comes out that more than one party was selected, then it was over sampled... You need to know your demographics well enough to say there's a legitimate reason for the over sampling, otherwise you are assuming that more of one party will actually show up on election day... This cannot be done with certainty with RVs...

Really? So there are always the exact same number of Dems and Reps in the US?

Other than you, who said that?

If you suggest that an equal number of Dems and Reps should be sampled, you are suggesting that there are the same number of both. I can't be held accountable if you don't understand the impact of your own words.

The goal of the poll is to find out how the election would turn out were the election held at that point in time... If you are polling registered voters, then you are asking people who may or may not show up... Not all registered voters vote... You want a venn diagram to help you out? This is why RV polls are "meh"...

You keep changing the subject. We're discussing the party affiliation of those polled, not their likelihood to vote

Any RANDOM sample of RVs that contains more than one party is considered over sampled for that party...

No, that's a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics.

Let's say suddenly wake up and see the light in your mind. Therefore, millions of people drop the Dems and register as Reps. In fact, a later census confirms that 90% of people are now Republicans.

You do a poll about voter intent, and in doing so you don't random sample - instead you weight the responses so that 50% are Dems and 50% are Reps.

Would that give you a fair representation?

 

[Truthmatters]

Registered Democrats still dominate the political playing field with more than 42 million voters, compared to 30 million Republicans and 24 million independents. But Democrats have lost the most &#8212; 1.7 million, or 3.9%, from 2008.


The numbers themselves shows to make it fair you have to sample MORE dems than Rs