Pandemic In the Making?

[Annie]

DavidS posted yesterday in health forum, about 75 prep students being observed for flu systems. I've done a search, that was the only reference to this story that's been building for a couple days, mostly in Mexico, but it's also broken out here.

I've been watching the avian flu virus and the warnings of a pandemic being overdue for several years.

Wash your hands seems to be the best advice. What's scary about this early story is that in Mexico where the deaths have occurred, it's felling healthy adults, not the young and elderly as usually the case.

Tamiflu seems to be working, if taken early from the onset-so get to the doctor.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26flu.html?em

April 26, 2009
Health Agencies Warily Monitor Swine Flu Strain

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. and LIZ ROBBINS
The World Health Organization decided not raise the pandemic alert level in the wake of a swine flu outbreak in Mexico, while public health officials in the United States said they would continue to monitor the virus, which appeared to be spreading.

In Mexico, where the flu outbreak is believed to have started, government officials closed all public gatherings on Saturday, including more than 500 concerts and sporting events and the popular weekly bicycle rides. Mexican health officials reported 24 new suspected cases of swine flu in Mexico City alone.

As of Friday, the swine flu outbreak — identified as the H1N1 strain — had killed as many as 61 people in Mexico and infected 1,000 others, according to Mexican officials. There were eight confirmed cases in the United States but no reported deaths.

Dr. Margaret Chan, secretary-general of the World Health Organization, said on Saturday that the swine flu virus spreading in Mexico and the United States had “pandemic potential,” but that it was too early to tell if it would become a pandemic.

“This situation is evolving quickly,” Dr. Chan said in a telephone news conference. “A new disease is by definition poorly understood.”

But officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they understoodthat the outbreak potential in the United States was serious.

“It’s clear that this is widespread,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, Interim Deputy Director for Science and Public Health Program for the C.D.C. said in a teleconference on Saturday afternoon. “We do not think we can contain the spread of this virus.”...

 

[WillowTree]

Yes, handwashing is your best defense, avoid crowds, eating out,, if you do eat out use a straw, avoid buffets,, yuck,,

 

[Annie]

Yes, handwashing is your best defense, avoid crowds, eating out,, if you do eat out use a straw, avoid buffets,, yuck,,

If tomorrow brings the number of cases today did, my guess is they will close all buffets and salad bars. This may be 'it.'

Pandemics and Pandemic Threats since 1900

Pandemics and Pandemic Threats since 1900

Historical Overview

History suggests that influenza pandemics have probably happened during at least the last four centuries. Since 1900, three pandemics and several "pandemic threats" have occurred.

1918: Spanish Flu

The Spanish Influenza pandemic is the catastrophe against which all modern pandemics are measured. It is estimated that approximately 20 to 40 percent of the worldwide population became ill and that over 50 million people died. Between September 1918 and April 1919, approximately 675,000 deaths from the flu occurred in the U.S. alone. Many people died from this very quickly. Some people who felt well in the morning became sick by noon, and were dead by nightfall. Those who did not succumb to the disease within the first few days often died of complications from the flu (such as pneumonia) caused by bacteria.

One of the most unusual aspects of the Spanish flu was its ability to kill young adults. The reasons for this remain uncertain. With the Spanish flu, mortality rates were high among healthy adults as well as the usual high-risk groups. The attack rate and mortality was highest among adults 20 to 50 years old. The severity of that virus has not been seen again.

1957: Asian Flu

In February 1957, the Asian influenza pandemic was first identified in the Far East. Immunity to this strain was rare in people less than 65 years of age, and a pandemic was predicted. In preparation, vaccine production began in late May 1957, and health officials increased surveillance for flu outbreaks.

Unlike the virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, the 1957 pandemic virus was quickly identified, due to advances in scientific technology. Vaccine was available in limited supply by August 1957. The virus came to the U.S. quietly, with a series of small outbreaks over the summer of 1957. When U.S. children went back to school in the fall, they spread the disease in classrooms and brought it home to their families. Infection rates were highest among school children, young adults, and pregnant women in October 1957. Most influenza-and pneumonia-related deaths occurred between September 1957 and March 1958. The elderly had the highest rates of death.

By December 1957, the worst seemed to be over. However, during January and February 1958, there was another wave of illness among the elderly. This is an example of the potential "second wave" of infections that can develop during a pandemic. The disease infects one group of people first, infections appear to decrease and then infections increase in a different part of the population. Although the Asian flu pandemic was not as devastating as the Spanish flu, about 69,800 people in the U.S. died.

1968: Hong Kong Flu

In early 1968, the Hong Kong influenza pandemic was first detected in Hong Kong. The first cases in the U.S. were detected as early as September of that year, but illness did not become widespread in the U.S. until December. Deaths from this virus peaked in December 1968 and January 1969. Those over the age of 65 were most likely to die. The same virus returned in 1970 and 1972. The number of deaths between September 1968 and March 1969 for this pandemic was 33,800, making it the mildest pandemic in the 20th century.

There could be several reasons why fewer people in the U.S. died due to this virus. First, the Hong Kong flu virus was similar in some ways to the Asian flu virus that circulated between 1957 and 1968. Earlier infections by the Asian flu virus might have provided some immunity against the Hong Kong flu virus that may have helped to reduce the severity of illness during the Hong Kong pandemic. Second, instead of peaking in September or October, like pandemic influenza had in the previous two pandemics, this pandemic did not gain momentum until near the school holidays in December. Since children were at home and did not infect one another at school, the rate of influenza illness among schoolchildren and their families declined. Third, improved medical care and antibiotics that are more effective for secondary bacterial infections were available for those who became ill.

1976: Swine Flu Threat

When a novel virus was first identified at Fort Dix, it was labeled the "killer flu." Experts were extremely concerned because the virus was thought to be related to the Spanish flu virus of 1918. The concern that a major pandemic could sweep across the world led to a mass vaccination campaign in the United States. In fact, the virus--later named "swine flu"--never moved outside the Fort Dix area. Research on the virus later showed that if it had spread, it would probably have been much less deadly than the Spanish flu.

1977: Russian Flu Threat

In May 1977, influenza A/H1N1 viruses isolated in northern China, spread rapidly, and caused epidemic disease in children and young adults (< 23 years) worldwide. The 1977 virus was similar to other A/H1N1 viruses that had circulated prior to 1957. (In 1957, the A/H1N1 virus was replaced by the new A/H2N2 viruses). Because of the timing of the appearance of these viruses, persons born before 1957 were likely to have been exposed to A/H1N1 viruses and to have developed immunity against A/H1N1 viruses. Therefore, when the A/H1N1 reappeared in 1977, many people over the age of 23 had some protection against the virus and it was primarily younger people who became ill from A/H1N1 infections. By January 1978, the virus had spread around the world, including the United States. Because illness occurred primarily in children, this event was not considered a true pandemic. Vaccine containing this virus was not produced in time for the 1977-78 season, but the virus was included in the 1978-79 vaccine.

1997: Avian Flu Threat

The most recent pandemic "threats" occurred in 1997 and 1999. In 1997, at least a few hundred people became infected with the avian A/H5N1 flu virus in Hong Kong and 18 people were hospitalized. Six of the hospitalized persons died. This virus was different because it moved directly from chickens to people, rather than having been altered by infecting pigs as an intermediate host. In addition, many of the most severe illnesses occurred in young adults similar to illnesses caused by the 1918 Spanish flu virus. To prevent the spread of this virus, all chickens (approximately 1.5 million) in Hong Kong were slaughtered. The avian flu did not easily spread from one person to another, and after the poultry slaughter, no new human infections were found.

In 1999, another novel avian flu virus - A/H9N2 - was found that caused illnesses in two children in Hong Kong. Although both of these viruses have not gone on to start pandemics, their continued presence in birds, their ability to infect humans, and the ability of influenza viruses to change and become more transmissible among people is an ongoing concern.

 

[xsited1]

High-population liberals areas will get hit the worst. Don't liberals usually want population control?

 

[random3434]

High-population liberals areas will get hit the worst. Don't liberals usually want population control?

People are dying and you post this?

 

[random3434]

I have always wondered why some people die from the flu, and others don't.

I think our immune systems are so different, Annie, you just said healthy adults are dying from this new strain. It's scary. There are so many things we, as consumers, eat and drink and even touch, not knowing what's in it or where it's been.

I know the very young and the elderly have always been at high risk, but now it seems nobody is immune.

 

[AllieBaba]

That's a bit melodramatic.

20 people have died in Mexico. None of the 8 ppl who have it in the US give any signs of dying.

They're calling it swine flu, and saying it is affecting young adults comparable to the flu epidemic at the beginning of the 20th century (which wiped out a lot of soldiers).

Make sure your kids get their flu shots, and wash, wash, wash. With regular soap and water.

 

[xsited1]

High-population liberals areas will get hit the worst. Don't liberals usually want population control?

People are dying and you post this?

After the 2004 Tsuanami devastated Asia, I was on a message board discussing it when several liberals stepped up and said the world was already overpopulated and this was a good thing. One even said that most of the dead were poor as if to make their deaths more palatable.

 

[WillowTree]

fox just up the number in mexico to hundreds?? and 11 here, in Kansas, texas and Ca. another downside of open borders

 

[Annie]

That's a bit melodramatic.

20 people have died in Mexico. None of the 8 ppl who have it in the US give any signs of dying.

They're calling it swine flu, and saying it is affecting young adults comparable to the flu epidemic at the beginning of the 20th century (which wiped out a lot of soldiers).

Make sure your kids get their flu shots, and wash, wash, wash. With regular soap and water.

Um, it's been getting worse all day:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/world/americas/26mexico.html?hpw=&pagewanted=print

April 26, 2009
Mexico May Isolate Patients With Deadly Swine Flu Strain

By MARC LACEY and DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
MEXICO CITY —President Felipe Calderón published an order Saturday that would give his government extraordinary powers to address a deadly flu epidemic, including isolating those affected by the rare virus, inspecting their homes and ordering the closure of any public events that might result in more infection.

The government has already taken steps to try to control the swine flu outbreak that has killed as many as 68 people and infected possibly 1,000 more. Since Friday, officials have canceled hundreds of public events and closed schools for millions of students in and around the capital.

"My government will not delay one minute to take all the necessary measures to deal with this epidemic," Mr. Calderón said in Oaxaca State during the opening of a new hospital, which he said will set aside an area for anyone who might be affected by the new swine flu strain.

But despite government efforts, alarm has continued to grow and on Saturday, another 24 suspected cases of the flu were reported in the city, according to The Associated Press. The decree published Saturday says Mr. Calderón as the authority to invoke the new powers whenever the situation warrants.

Early Saturday, officials said they were considering keeping schools here closed into next week, after a one-day closure Friday, and they announced that two soccer matches scheduled for Sunday would be played without spectators....

WHO declares international concern over swine flu

WHO declares international concern over swine flu

By FRANK JORDANS, Associated Press Writer
1 hr 6 mins ago

GENEVA – The World Health Organization warned countries around the world Saturday to be on alert for any unusual flu outbreaks after a unique new swine flu virus was implicated in possibly dozens of human deaths in North America.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said the outbreak in Mexico and the United States constituted a "public health emergency of international concern."

The decision means countries around the world will be asked to step up reporting and surveillance of the disease, which she said had "pandemic potential" because it is an animal virus strain infecting people. But the agency cannot at this stage say "whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic," she added.

Chan made the decision to declare public health emergency of international concern after consulting with influenza experts from around the world. The emergency committee was called together Saturday for the first time since it was created in 2007.

In theory, WHO could now recommend travel advisories, trade restrictions or border closures, none of which would be binding. So far it has refrained from doing so.
The agency also held off raising its pandemic alert level, citing the need for more information....

 

[random3434]

High-population liberals areas will get hit the worst. Don't liberals usually want population control?

People are dying and you post this?

After the 2004 Tsuanami devastated Asia, I was on a message board discussing it when several liberals stepped up and said the world was already overpopulated and this was a good thing. One even said that most of the dead were poor as if to make their deaths more palatable.

But nobody on here has said that, have they?

You're using that as an excuse to put down liberals again, instead of talking about the flu, which is what this thread is about.

 

[AllieBaba]

It's the same thing I've heard said on this board when anyone posts something about a tragedy...similar posts cropped up about the guy who let his kids freeze to death when he let them try to walk home 10 miles in the snow, and whenever we talk about any other tragedy which involves the deaths of children. Someone always pipes up to say, "This is what happens when we overpopulate the world".

So it's a valid commentary. Libs do usually embrace this shit with open arms, and use it as evidence we need more abortion and stricter control of the masses.

 

[xsited1]

People are dying and you post this?

After the 2004 Tsuanami devastated Asia, I was on a message board discussing it when several liberals stepped up and said the world was already overpopulated and this was a good thing. One even said that most of the dead were poor as if to make their deaths more palatable.

But nobody on here has said that, have they?

You're using that as an excuse to put down liberals again, instead of talking about the flu, which is what this thread is about.

You have the power to remove or move my posts if you do not feel they are germane to the thread. And it's always so easy to 'put down liberals' since just about any topic can point to their hypocrisy.

Now back to the subject at hand... Pandemics have been brought up on message boards many times and population control has invariably been discussed. I'm sure we've all seen this:

Newsvine - Obama advisor: Earth population 'exceeds limits'

 

[Annie]

I have always wondered why some people die from the flu, and others don't.

I think our immune systems are so different, Annie, you just said healthy adults are dying from this new strain. It's scary. There are so many things we, as consumers, eat and drink and even touch, not knowing what's in it or where it's been.

I know the very young and the elderly have always been at high risk, but now it seems nobody is immune.

The healthy adult problem also hit with Spanish Flu of 1918, which is why so many died.

 

[Ravi]

Don't worry, it's just more of Obama's distraction technique.

 

[Annie]

Don't worry, it's just more of Obama's distraction technique.

Nope, Bush's fault.

 

[strollingbones]

another panendemic flu would be something people have no clue about.....20% or more of the world population was killed in the last flu...1914?

 

[AllieBaba]

All of my grandparents lived through it. Many, many of those killed were soldiers in bad conditions, or already sick.

 

[random3434]

After the 2004 Tsuanami devastated Asia, I was on a message board discussing it when several liberals stepped up and said the world was already overpopulated and this was a good thing. One even said that most of the dead were poor as if to make their deaths more palatable.

But nobody on here has said that, have they?

You're using that as an excuse to put down liberals again, instead of talking about the flu, which is what this thread is about.

You have the power to remove or move my posts if you do not feel they are germane to the thread. And it's always so easy to 'put down liberals' since just about any topic can point to their hypocrisy.

Now back to the subject at hand... Pandemics have been brought up on message boards many times and population control has invariably been discussed. I'm sure we've all seen this:

Newsvine - Obama advisor: Earth population 'exceeds limits'

These comments aren't from Liberals about the flu:


Newsvine - Deadly new flu strain threatens U.S., Mexico

 

[xsited1]

But nobody on here has said that, have they?

You're using that as an excuse to put down liberals again, instead of talking about the flu, which is what this thread is about.

You have the power to remove or move my posts if you do not feel they are germane to the thread. And it's always so easy to 'put down liberals' since just about any topic can point to their hypocrisy.

Now back to the subject at hand... Pandemics have been brought up on message boards many times and population control has invariably been discussed. I'm sure we've all seen this:

Newsvine - Obama advisor: Earth population 'exceeds limits'

These comments aren't from Liberals about the flu:


Newsvine - Deadly new flu strain threatens U.S., Mexico

They aren't from liberals? How do you know?

"Discuss more MSNBC.com Health articles in the MSNBC.com Health Group on Newsvine"

Here's a funny comment from your link:

John T-239903Urlemmings.................... Because you, eternally perfect liberal are so selfless unto the planet - our sacred flora and fauna, we know you'll be the first to volunteer yourself to leave this wretched world.