Over the cliff: Durable goods orders drop 13.2% in August POSTED AT 8:39 AM ON SEPTEM

Vel

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Oct 30, 2008
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I thought Obama policies were making things better?Let's hope that it's not too late for America's turnaround specialist to fix this economy.
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A key measure of the economy, especially in manufacturing, just had the bottom fall out. Orders for durable goods dropped 13.2% in August, the worst decrease in almost four years, and a large signal that the American economy is diving into a recession:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $30.1 billion or 13.2 percent to $198.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, was the largest decrease since January 2009 and followed a 3.3 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 12.4 percent. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $27.8 billion or 34.9 percent to $51.9 billion.

The news was even worse for capital goods, indicating that businesses have stopped investing in themselves:

Over the cliff: Durable goods orders drop 13.2% in August « Hot Air
 
Not to worry. Barry's probably thinking another $800B - $1T in stimulus spending will fix our dying economy, provide jobs (nonshovel-ready 2.0) and maybe even get those Volts flying off the showroom floors.
 
the final number for 2012 Q2 GDP was also announced as well, dropped 1.7% to 1.3%....but hey Obama will be having a shindig at Mariah Careys & Romney has toilet paper stuck to his shoe- thats the news;)
 
Obama-Private-Sector-Doing-Fine.jpg
 
This is not a good thing, we are hurting and this shows we need some help and leadership and all weare getting is campaign and rhetoric.
 
Everything this regime has said in the last four years has been an absolute lie. Everything.
 
Dems haven't got their talking points yet on how to answer this, but I know they will get their talking points and start spewing their BS very shortly.
 
See, we are still waiting for the talking points from the Democrats. I wonder how much longer it will be?
 
Industrial production is at it's lowest since May 2009.
As a manufacturer I can tell you raw material suppliers are sweating bullets. This is supposed to be the best time of the year...well...it's not.
 
And more bad news, Chicago PMI falls into negative territory in Sept. - MarketWatch

Sept. 28, 2012, 9:51 a.m. EDT
Chicago PMI falls into negative territory in Sept.

By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The MNI Chicago Report said its purchasing managers' index fell to 49.7 in September from 53.0 in August. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. This is the lowest level in three years. The size of the decline was unexpected. Economists had expected only a small decline.
 
I read this yesterday, too scary:

‘It’s all unraveling’ | Is this the last quarter of the recovery? | AEIdeas

‘It’s all unraveling’ | Is this the last quarter of the recovery?
James Pethokoukis | September 27, 2012, 1:04 pm

Has the U.S. economy turned a corner? Yes, and then another corner and now it’s going backward. A slew of bad economic data today. A taste of what economists are saying:

– It’s all unraveling this morning. OK in the US jobless claims fell and the consumer comfort index improved. But the downward revision to GDP and the chillingly large drop in Durable goods orders is enough to send chills up your spine. Yes, aircraft and defense orders were the bulk of the weakenss. But nothing there is reassuring. Have the NFL’s replacement officials been collecting economic data? Please tell me it is so. – Economist Robert Brusca

– Durable goods headline looks like an F, details look like a D. … The latest durable goods data point to some downside risk to our GDP forecast for the third quarter, though we are leaving our GDP forecast at 1.5%. – JPMogan

– … there is growing risk that a 2013 tax shock could push the economy into recession (and there is little the Fed can do to offset the fiscal shock). – RDQ Economics

– Today’s U.S. reports included a disastrous August durable goods … the ex-air equipment orders data are now tracking a recession trajectory, which may reflect fiscal cliff uncertainty that will eventually be reversed, but which send a notable red-flag for U.S. growth. … We lowered our 1.5% GDP growth forecasts for both Q3 and Q4 to 1.4% … – Action Economics.

– A trend weakening in core business investment outlays deserves the most attention. – Citi

Then we have this recession forecast from Strategas Research:

dwq9ll.png


If the above forecast is correct, the National Bureau of Economic Research might wind up declaring that the U.S. economy slipped back into recession in late 2012 even though the economy was actually not yet contracting at that point. (Here is my post from earlier on why we are in the recession red zone.)

And if that happens, economic historians might well shove aside the weak three-year recovery and call the entire 2007-2013 period the Long Recession or some such. I already have been, just like the 1980-82 period was a long recession, two downturns sandwiching a brief recovery.
 
Every indicator I see is not looking good, and I don't mean market indicators...who gives a f*ck about the stock market anymore? It is an absolute game now and does not in any way represent anything other than how much air can you inflate a tire with before it blows.
Real indicators.
Industrial production
Wages
Work participation
Unemployment compensation paid out
Social program usage
State and local governments beyond crises mode-barely hanging on thanks to fed welfare.
The never ending interest rate saga, European debt - that is still there regardless of how everyone tries to pretend it isn't, then is, then isn't..then is...

Everything is pretty fucked. And I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel...not for us.
 
Every indicator I see is not looking good, and I don't mean market indicators...who gives a f*ck about the stock market anymore? It is an absolute game now and does not in any way represent anything other than how much air can you inflate a tire with before it blows.
Real indicators.
Industrial production
Wages
Work participation
Unemployment compensation paid out
Social program usage
State and local governments beyond crises mode-barely hanging on thanks to fed welfare.
The never ending interest rate saga, European debt - that is still there regardless of how everyone tries to pretend it isn't, then is, then isn't..then is...

Everything is pretty fucked. And I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel...not for us.

These are the things I have been seeing.
 
:lol:

The left is ignoring a big economic story and hopes it goes away.

You guys can't face the truth.
 
I thought Obama policies were making things better?Let's hope that it's not too late for America's turnaround specialist to fix this economy.
***************************************************

A key measure of the economy, especially in manufacturing, just had the bottom fall out. Orders for durable goods dropped 13.2% in August, the worst decrease in almost four years, and a large signal that the American economy is diving into a recession:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $30.1 billion or 13.2 percent to $198.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, was the largest decrease since January 2009 and followed a 3.3 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 12.4 percent. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $27.8 billion or 34.9 percent to $51.9 billion.

The news was even worse for capital goods, indicating that businesses have stopped investing in themselves:

Over the cliff: Durable goods orders drop 13.2% in August « Hot Air

You guys really need to learn to read the tables you are quoting before you post. The report showed durable goods shipments up 8.2% on year over year basis. 90% of the drop in orders came from non-defense transportation equipment, a notoriously variable component. In fact orders in this category were negative because of one large aircraft order cancellation. Core capital goods orders were up 1.1%.

AP reports:
Demand for long-lasting manufactured goods plunged in August because of a huge drop in volatile commercial aircraft orders. But in a hopeful sign, orders that reflect business investment plans rose.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that total durable goods orders fell 13.2 percent in August. That’s the biggest drop since January 2009 when the country was in recession. Aircraft orders fell by nearly 102 percent, pulling down the headline figure.

Economists tend to pay more attention to core capital goods, which signal investment plans. Those orders rose 1.1 percent. That’s the first increase since May, although it follows steep declines in the previous two months.

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said the August decline is not a reason to “panic.” He said many economists were expecting a sharp drop in aircraft orders after 260 planes were ordered in July. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 1.6 percent in August. The figure was dragged down by a 40.1 percent drop in defense orders.

“The massive ... slump in US durable goods orders in August was largely due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component,” Ashworth said. Ashworth also noted that motor vehicle orders fell 10.9 percent in August, but that reversed a 12.1 percent spike in July orders, “when fewer than normal auto plants shut down for summer retooling.”

Orders tend to fluctuate from month to month. Overall, total orders fell to $198.5 billion in August. That’s still 33.5 percent above the recession low hit in April 2009.

Feel better now?
 

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