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wade said:
I typed 2000 near the end where I meant to type 2001. Ooops... my bad for replying late at night.

The point I keep trying to get through to you is THERE WAS NO AGREEMENT TO BE BROKEN! The deal on the table when Bush took office in 2001 was never consumated, so why would you expect NK's nuclear program would not have proceeded?

Wrong, it's something you didn't research with a minute of time like I did:


http://www.dailyutahchronicle.com/n...Bush-Cuts.Off.Oil.To.North.Korea-323853.shtml

Published: Thursday, November 14, 2002

WASHINGTON—President Bush decided Wednesday to cut off U.S. oil shipments to North Korea after one more delivery unless the Communist regime dismantles its nuclear weapons program, administration officials said.



Why do you deny that this was an opportunity lost? At worst, Kim would have broken the deal and that would have been that. At best, he would have honored at least enough of it to justify our continuing the deal. If we had gotten inspections as promised, it would have been worth contuinuing, and if not, we would simply have backed out having gained tremeondous intel through the exercise.


Assuming the timeline was as you say, which it is not. So I'll let you rephrase that in terms of how violation preceded a cutoff by what is now a year and a half.

Get the dates in order, please, or else you don't make sense.


Personally, I think Kim could be bought. Make the right offer and he'd be out of Korea making dirty movies and living the playboy life.
Wade.

He's not just a nobody outside of his isolated, murderious little Kimland but also subject to justice by his people, eventually, and a dead man, like Saddam. He'd hang for what he has done, and he deserves it.
 
If you read the rest of my posts, you will see that I meant 2001. Obviously Bush could not have taken action in 2000, since he didn't take power until 2001.

The oil deal that was going on was not part of the 2000 Albright deal, it pre-dates that. And yes he did violate that agreement, but given the "axis of evil" statements and other things done by the Bush administration, what else would you expect but a resumption of NK's WMD program. Without WMD's the current NK regime is doomed.


He will pay like Marcos did? Lots of despots have been deposed and lived out their lives in exile. I agree it would be best if Kim and many of his regime were made to pay for their crimes, but it would be worth it to resolve things now rather than later, even if they didn't pay.

Wade.
 
wade said:
If you read the rest of my posts, you will see that I meant 2001. Obviously Bush could not have taken action in 2000, since he didn't take power until 2001.

The oil deal that was going on was not part of the 2000 Albright deal, it pre-dates that. And yes he did violate that agreement, but given the "axis of evil" statements and other things done by the Bush administration, what else would you expect but a resumption of NK's WMD program. Without WMD's the current NK regime is doomed.

Yes, since 1994 I think, but I was diverging about basketball now proundly on display in the shrine of Kim.... you can have fun with that link to that comment and start from the beginning... a great read.

So we know the oil deal continued from 1994 to 2003 then, agreed?

It's not about being right, I just want want you to take more care with these claims.

You are definately wrong that Bush never consummated that agreement, and wrong again when he was to have cut it off prior to the admission from N.K. I want you to be making claims that you can prove when challenged, because I think credibility is key. I don't think it's usefull for me to do the work anymore, you should first be sure what you claim is accurate. It's just contructive criticism and not like I am harping on you.


And yes he did violate that agreement, but given the "axis of evil" statements and other things done by the Bush administration, what else would you expect but a resumption of NK's WMD program.

The cause and effect you describe is reversed. Intelligence from this brief here is instructive.

http://www.fas.org/irp/nic/nk_conference.html

August 1998: The Beginning of the End of the Framework?

August 1998 was a pivotal month for North Korea policy, particularly from the US perspective. That month, The New York Times first reported on the “suspect site” at Kumchang-ri. Then, in late August, North Korea shocked the world by successfully testing a long-range missile. That missile was fired over Japanese territory, sending an unmistakable military warning to Japan and its closest military ally, the US. Within the space of a few weeks, US attitudes toward North Korea were shaken to their core. First, there was dramatic new evidence that the North not only posed a missile threat to the South and Japan but also to US territory. Second, the Kumchang-ri incident, coming four years after the North had pledged to keep its nuclear program “frozen”, solidified the opinion of many that P’yongyang never had any such intention.



Bush called out Kim Il's regime as the liar and cheater the intelligence already pointed out, among a long list of direct violations Clinton chose to ignore in his term.

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron.asp

And the details from the above same brief were confirmed by direct admission from North Korea in 2001 as I earlier linked.

The cummulative effect of these violations caused Bush to proclaim them as what they were all along. Clinton was just too gutless to cut them off when it would have made a difference. So we owe a nuclear armed North Korea to him, not Bush. I can't be more clear than that.

Without WMD's the current NK regime is doomed.

We could have accepted the loss of Seoul (artillery) and large casualties in the early 90's instead of what we face today, a much larger problem. But even then, such action was beyond reason. It's only going to be worse as the arsenal grows.

He will pay like Marcos did? Lots of despots have been deposed and lived out their lives in exile. I agree it would be best if Kim and many of his regime were made to pay for their crimes, but it would be worth it to resolve things now rather than later, even if they didn't pay.

Wade.

I imagine Kim wouldn't trust any such promise for those same reasons, too. So we're probably stuck with him and unless we can knock the missiles from the sky via ABM, which is promising, we're stuck with the bastard for now.
 
Comrade:

As a Korea watcher myself, I have a question for you (sorry to stray the thread, we can start a new one if we need to). Who do you see as the "up and comers" in NK? I have been looking, and I don't see much. Other than Kim himself, most of the leadership of NK is getting really, really, really old. Kim can't be bought, but I wonder if targeted assassinations of the hierarchy followed by bribes to senior level military officials would be a possible solution?
 
freeandfun1 said:
Comrade:

As a Korea watcher myself, I have a question for you (sorry to stray the thread, we can start a new one if we need to). Who do you see as the "up and comers" in NK? I have been looking, and I don't see much. Other than Kim himself, most of the leadership of NK is getting really, really, really old. Kim can't be bought, but I wonder if targeted assassinations of the hierarchy followed by bribes to senior level military officials would be a possible solution?


It's definately a family business, running the country. As of this year, he's been grooming his second born son (via father's now current concubine), Kim Jong Chul, for succession.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-chul_(political_figure)

Chul is backed by the army and educated in France like all commies like, among Ho Chi Minh and Pol Pot. He's da man.

Tragically for Kim Sr. and his elder son, Kim Jong-chul (via another concubine), his arrest in Tokyo in 2001 left him out of favour and without the support from the army. He's been rumoured to live in China since 2003.

And all because he was out for a little Jap nookie, the horny slimeball.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-nam

According to the Japanese newspaper Shukan Shincho Kim had made three previous clandestine visits to Japan, and had spent most of his time consorting with prostitutes in expensive bath-houses in Tokyo's Yoshiwara district.

Ha ha ha! All his kingdom lost for the sake of getting laid by a geisha girl. I mean how pathetic is that?

I'm sure the whole family is similarly pathetic but he really got screwed out of the whole throne. Haha!

Still, Kim Sr is getting more nutty and bizzare about things as he loses his mind in old age.

http://www.rotten.com/library/bio/dictators/kim-jong-il/

Kim also adores children's cartoons, especially Daffy Duck. (Evidently, the Dear Leader has amassed the world's largest collection of Daffy cartoons.) And he's a giant Michael Jackson fan.

BWaaahaha!

He also loves pornography. In addition, according to rumor, Kim also keeps a harem of beautiful women for the purpose of fucking. The dictator is regularly serviced by a nubile "Pleasure Squad," a stable of babes composed primarily of young Asians and Europeans.

Well sure. No King would do otherwise.

In his free time Kim wrote six operas, over a span of only two years. This he could accomplish because he's a goddamned genius. As one North Korean diplomat expressed his nation's gratitude during Kim's 61st birthday celebration: "We're able to face the U.S. superpower and the hostile U.S. policies because of our brilliant commander, Chairman Kim Jong Il. He is a thinker on a par with Marx and Lenin."

So he's a dumbass.

But of course, none of this is why he gets paid the big bucks. His job security is based on convincing the world that his regime is extremely dangerous and unpredictable. In playing chicken with the global superpowers, Kim's primary objectives are twofold:

Make North Korea a credible nuclear power.
Most analysts believe the DPRK is pretty close to having nuclear-tipped ICBMs, unless they already do. The fact is, nobody knows for sure. They've intentionally kept things under wraps to keep us guessing. Are they working on their fifth warhead? Their fiftieth? Their first? Fuck if we know.

LOL!


Pretend to be completely, utterly, bugfuck crazy.
Nuclear weapons are useless as a deterrent unless your enemy believes you're crazy enough to actually use them. And if you're a small country, you can make up for a small stockpile by pretending to have a hair trigger.

Unfortunately, despite Kim's best efforts, nobody really believes he's nuts these days. He screwed his carefully-cultivated image by inviting Secretary of State Madeline Albright to Pyongyang in October 2000. Afterwards, she said:

I don't think he's delusional... we had very peculiar information about Kim Jong Il -- that he was a recluse. I think "delusional" actually was a word that was used. But [South Korean President] Kim Dae Jung had reported that it was possible to have perfectly decent, rational conversations with him... he's not delusional, and he's not someone who only is interested in watching bad movies.

Medeline gave him a basketball signed by Jordan, too. It sits along with the mugs from CNN in the temple of Kim.

Of course, even if he does everything right, nothing lasts forever. It will eventually end for Kim Jong Il, just as it ended for his father before him. Kim Il Sung died in July 1994. Incidentally, rumor has it that he suffered a massive heart attack during an animated argument with his son.

I bet he was screwing instead.

Kim is probably doomed to the same eventual fate as billionaire Howard Hughes, ultimately succumbing to crippling paranoid delusions. But for the time being, he's only about halfway there -- utterly obsessed with secrecy and his physical security, but not afraid to touch doorknobs yet. In planning for this eventuality, Kim is grooming one of his sons, Kim Jong Chul, to take over the family business. He will have quite a legacy to live up to.

And will also have to put out millions of portraits for every room in N.K. too. Plus thousands of statues. Tough work!

But this plan may all go to shit. For some reason, Kim Jong Il believes he will be replaced by a triplet, and none of his children were triplets. So, like King Herod before him, Kim is covering his bets. He has ordered all triplets born in North Korea be rounded up and raised in state orphanages, where the government can keep an especially close eye on them. We are not making this up. According to a March 2003 story in the Herald Sun:

All triplets in North Korea are being forcibly removed from parents after their birth and dumped in bleak orphanages. The policy is carried out on the orders of Stalinist dictator Kim Jong-il, who has an irrational belief that a triplet could one day topple his regime.

Well that's nutty as hell. I think he misunderstood triplet idea... it's obviously the triad of the US Army, Navy, and Marines who will take him down.
 
Zhukov said:
Has anyone bothered to condemn them in the UN for human right's violations? I know that's basically useless, but it's the proper first step.

Demand better conditions and more politcal freedom for the North Korean people.

Insist on inspections of suspected WMD installations.

Demand they relinquish or dismantle any WMD they have.

Threaten to forcibly cut off all aid.

Get China on our side, or else good-bye 'Favored Nation Status'.

Conduct massive naval exercises around Japan.

Conduct beach invasion exercises in South Korea.

Speed up, if possible, ABM technology development.

Publically deploy our latest ABM efforts in South Korea, Japan, and the western U.S.

Build nuclear bunker busters, and make it public.

Task additional satellites to monitor North Korea to create the most exhaustive list of likely targets possible.



If North Korea is found to be actively conspiring with terrorists, attack them, whatever the consequences.

In addition, develop multiple NK leadership decapitation senarios and, in case of conflict, enact them all simultaneously. Let "Dear Leader" know that if military action against NK is required, our number one priority will be to destroy him, his family, and everyone they have affiliation with. And that we will not rest, ever, until that is accomplished.
 
onedomino said:
In addition, develop multiple NK leadership decapitation senarios and, in case of conflict, enact them all simultaneously. Let "Dear Leader" know that if military action against NK is required, our number one priority will be to destroy him, his family, and everyone they have affiliation with. And that we will not rest, ever, until that is accomplished.

He has to assume this as a fact already, pretty much left unsaid but duly expected.

As for Zhukov's suggestions they are all good, but what can be more pro-active aside from 'insisting', 'demanding', and 'threatening'?
 
Earlier in another thread I posted an essay that was prepared by a friend of mine. Today he sent to me via email a 'draft' dissertation that he has presented to NDU Press for publication. He has not yet heard back from them on if they are going to publish it or not.

For those of you interested in the situation in Korea and possible solutions, I highly recommend reading his dissertation. It is long (135 pages including end-notes, bibliography, etc.) but well worth reading (the body is 111 pages). In it, he covers his thoughts on the re-deployment of US troops in Korea, the mistakes of the past 51 years (including mistakes made by the Bush admin), recommendation on how to handle the NK "problem", etc.

It is a great read, so if you have the time, please read it and let me know what you think.

I am trying to get him to join USMB, but based on his position on active duty, if he does, I am sure he will not expose himself here as who he is. Currently, he is serving as Chief of Staff at the Special Operations Command Korea (SOCKOR).

Since the MS Word document is so large, I had to use a file sharing site to allow you to read it. You can log-in HERE using the USERID "northkoreasolutions" and the password, "USMB1".

Please note that I signed up for a free trial so the link will expire in less than five (5) days.

Happy reading.
 
Free,

I get a "Bad username or password" error.

Why is it posted here? Is it huge? If it's text that should easily fit on a normal webspace.

Wade.
 
wade said:
Free,

I get a "Bad username or password" error.

Why is it posted here? Is it huge? If it's text that should easily fit on a normal webspace.

Wade.

It is 327.5 KB which is too big to post here. Make sure you are using the right username and password. I tried from two different computers and it works okay for me.

Username: northkoreasolutions
Password: USMB1

As I said, it is 135 pages in length.
 
Server won't even open now.

Less than half a meg? Send it to me via Email at [email protected] and I'll put it on my cox webspace and post the link. That way it'll be easy for everyone to access and there will be no time limit (I'll leave it up for at least a month or two, longer if you wish).

Make sure the author is okay with it first though.

Wade.
 
wade said:
Server won't even open now.

Less than half a meg? Send it to me via Email at [email protected] and I'll put it on my cox webspace and post the link. That way it'll be easy for everyone to access and there will be no time limit (I'll leave it up for at least a month or two, longer if you wish).

Make sure the author is okay with it first though.

Wade.

Done. I have had on again off again problems with accessing the site. Maybe because it is a "free-trial".
 
An exerpt..... don't blast the grammar. It is a "draft" and has not yet been edited for grammar, etc.

Beyond the Nuclear Crisis:
A Strategy for the Korean Peninsula


COL David S. Maxwell, USA

Research Fellowship

Committee 5
Dr. Michael Mazarr
Dr. Marvin Ott

ADVISOR
COL Robert G. Louis​


The opinions expressed in this paper are the author’s and do not represent National Defense University, Department of Defense or U.S. Government positions.​


CHAPTER 5​
A Strategic Framework for Korea
“Either [North Korea] is going to …invade the South…or it will collapse internally, or implode because of the incredible economic problems the country faces; or third, it will over time lead to some peaceful resolution with the South.”
John Deutch
Former Director of Central Intelligence
1996​

It is no wonder that there is no comprehensive strategy for dealing with North Korea with three such diverse scenarios put forth by the Intelligence Community. While on the one hand this statement can certainly be looked at as one covering all the bases, it is really illustrative of the complexities that policy makers and strategists have faced when thinking about the “Korea Question.” On the one hand the military of both the ROK and the US are obligated to plan for the worst case scenario and for the past 51 years this has been the main effort in planning. However, for the ROK Government, particularly with the rise of the liberal, center-left leaders in South Korea, such as Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun, the focus has been on peaceful resolution and even co-existence. Finally the collapse and implosion/explosion scenarios have been deemed as too complex for most planners.

This paper has examined the strategic environment of the Korean Peninsula, the nature of the Kim Family Regime and the state of the ROK-US alliance and the policy differences that exist. The remainder of this paper will chart out a strategy of “Comprehensive Engagement with Strength: Partner and Prosper” that should be considered for adoption as a combined strategy by the ROK and US.

Why a Combined Strategy
The Korean Peninsula has a unique 5000 year history but for the past 150 years it has been intertwined with the US and for the past 51 years the ROK and US have been inextricably linked. Despite the rising tide of anti-Americanism in South Korea and feelings of ambivalence if not resentment toward the ROK by a growing number of Americans due to that anti-American sentiment, the US cannot extricate itself from the ROK for two main reasons. First, as discussed in Chapter 4, the US has a responsibility to help solve the “Korea Question” because, like it or not, it has had a hand in causing the division of the Peninsula.

The second reason is that it is a vital interest of the United States to be fully engaged in Northeast Asia and to ensure security and economic prosperity for the region and for the US. The status quo offers a measure of stability, but the status quo cannot be maintained indefinitely. While crises have occurred in the past 51 years, not even the nuclear crisis will compare to the twin potential disasters of collapse or war and the potential for the devastation of the Peninsula, the huge toll in human suffering, and the damage to the regional, US, and world economies. There is no doubt that war must be as a minimum forestalled and at best deterred but when Kim Jong Il is faced with imminent collapse his only option to guarantee his survival may be to execute his military campaign to reunify the Peninsula. There may be nothing that can deter Kim when he is faced with such an untenable situation as imminent regime collapse and loss of control of the regime and the nation. Therefore, as it has for 51 years the alliance must continue to prepare to defeat an attack from the North. Conversely, if there is regime collapse and the internal situation turns chaotic and violent with attendant humanitarian disaster, the alliance must also be prepared with a military response as well. Deterrence and defense and military preparedness have to be the foundation of any strategy.

This foundation must be made unshakable and that must be done through a strong alliance in which each partner maximizes its strengths to minimize the weaknesses. Once the foundation is firm then the framework of the strategy for solving the “Korea Question” can be erected. This framework must be large and have much room to maneuver. The internal workings of the framework must be flexible enough to deal with multiple crises and forestall and deter war but also to identify opportunities from crises that can be exploited in ways that will contribute to reaching the ultimate end state. Key to making this strategy work is going to be intensive management, coordination and collaboration. The situation on the Peninsula will not remain static therefore the strategy cannot be static.

Strategy Development to Repair the Alliance

The alliance is in a state of disrepair so the first step must be to repair it. While no easy feat to do so, the tensions and distrust that have arisen as well as the policy differences between the two allies since the end of the Cold War must be overcome. It will require intervention and direction at the highest levels to rebuild the ties that have become weak.

There are three basic requirements to repair the alliance. First is that both administrations must believe it is their best interests to do so and will make the commitment to repair it. The second step is to establish a long term vision acceptable to both countries that focuses on achieving an end state that solves the “Korea Question.” Finally, both nations must commit to establishing a structure that is committed to not only developing the combined strategy but also to managing that strategy until the end state is achieved.

Assuming both nations desire to re-commit to and strengthen the alliance the following is the proposed end state introduced in Chapter 1 that seeks to resolves the “Korea Question.”

A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.


Reunification is the only acceptable long term outcome that can ensure stability on the Peninsula. The goal is noble and right but the path to get there is literally and figuratively a minefield and it will take a concerted and coordinated effort by the alliance to get there. Therefore a structure is required for the development and management of the strategy for navigating the minefields. Both nations at the National Security Council level should establish a Korea Strategy Division (KSD) to develop, refine and adjust their country’s strategies as well as manage their respective nations’ actions within the strategic framework.

Together these Divisions will form the Korea Strategy Group (KSG). This will have permanently assigned members from each KSD co-chaired by each nation’s senior member and will meet on a quarterly basis rotating between both capitals. Most important is that the members will have direct communications capability to maintain close coordination in all areas.

The KSG will be chartered to manage and ensure synchronization of all elements of national power in the pursuit of the established end state. Together they will manage strategic level Peninsula crises and seek opportunities for implementing elements of the strategy. Each KSD will serve as the focal point for their respective nation in which to ensure synchronization of all actions by its elements of national power. One of the subtle purposes of the KSG is to bring together ROK and US national security professionals in a disciplined process that will allow transparency and prevent misunderstanding between the allies. The process of developing and managing the strategy will cause issues to be thoroughly staffed and coordinated and the increased contact will create an environment more conducive to cooperation and understanding.

ROK and US individual policies are not intended to be identical. In fact, it is probably better that they are different as the differences may be able to be exploited to create opportunities with the North. At times the combination of hard line and engagement (“good cop, bad cop”) may be the right way to create opportunities.” The most important thing is for the actions to be synchronized.
 
EDITED, REPOSTED, ETC.

Thanks to Wade, I am now able to provide this in a link HERE that does not require a password, etc.

A quick note, this dissertation has not been edited. It is a 'draft' that has been presented to the National Defense University Press for publication, but it has NOT yet been published.

I know the entire document is loooooooong, but if you can find the time and you are interested in the "North Korean problem", I highly suggest you read it as you can. It is an excellent piece of work and has a lot of insight to offer.

Again, thanks Wade.

Earlier in another thread I posted an essay that was prepared by a friend of mine. Today he sent to me via email a 'draft' dissertation that he has presented to NDU Press for publication. He has not yet heard back from them on if they are going to publish it or not.

For those of you interested in the situation in Korea and possible solutions, I highly recommend reading his dissertation. It is long (135 pages including end-notes, bibliography, etc.) but well worth reading (the body is 111 pages). In it, he covers his thoughts on the re-deployment of US troops in Korea, the mistakes of the past 51 years (including mistakes made by the Bush admin), recommendation on how to handle the NK "problem", etc.

It is a great read, so if you have the time, please read it and let me know what you think.

I am trying to get him to join USMB, but based on his position on active duty, if he does, I am sure he will not expose himself here as who he is. Currently, he is serving as Chief of Staff at the Special Operations Command Korea (SOCKOR).

Since the MS Word document is so large, I had to use a file sharing site to allow you to read it. You can log-in HERE using the USERID "northkoreasolutions" and the password, "USMB1".

Please note that I signed up for a free trial so the link will expire in less than five (5) days.

Happy reading.
 

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