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NAIROBI, Kenya — Once again, the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia has been handed a golden opportunity.
Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, Al Qaeda’s top operative in Somalia and one of the most wanted men in Africa, drove into a government checkpoint by mistake last week and was killed in a blaze of gunfire. At the same time, the Islamist militant group he helped lead — the Shabab — has been steadily losing ground as African Union peacekeepers and government troops go on the offensive.
It seems the conditions are finally ripe for the transitional government, which for years has been boxed into a tiny corner of Mogadishu, the capital, to assert itself. But many analysts are doubtful that Somalia’s political leadership has the capacity or the will to seize the moment. In their view, the prognosis for the country, despite the recent military successes, remains grim.
Mr. Mohammed, a native of the Comoros Islands, off East Africa between Madagascar and Mozambique, was a master of disguises, a computer wizard and fluent in five languages, and was considered one of the most dangerous fugitives.
He plotted the bombings of the American Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and devised a plan in 2002 that nearly brought down an Israeli airliner in Kenya. More recently, fomenting Somalia’s chaos had been his focus.
As a top commander for the Shabab, he was instrumental in bringing roadside bombs, suicide bombs and other Qaeda tactics to Somalia’s battlefields. Though the Shabab have vowed to take their jihad global, and demonstrated last summer in a pair of suicide bombs in Uganda that they were capable of killing many people outside Somalia, under Mr. Mohammed’s influence they seemed to have made a strategic decision not to attack Western targets.
So the impact of Mr. Mohammed’s death, analysts say, will not mean as much for Al Qaeda as it will for the Shabab.
“Fazul’s death will affect the movement in many ways, morale being the most important,” said Afyare Elmi, who teaches politics at Qatar University and writes frequently on Somalia.
Bronwyn E. Bruton, a consultant on democracy who wrote a provocative essay urging the West to withdraw from Somalia, said Mr. Mohammed’s death was a serious setback for the Shabab, which was “already visibly starved for funds and in retreat.”
In the past several weeks, African Union troops have routed the Shabab in several strategic neighborhoods. In southern Somalia, local militias allied to the government have likewise driven the Shabab back. Not so long ago, Shabab snipers were in rifle range of the president’s bedroom and the Somali government was pleading for outside help.
The government now seems to be puffed up with confidence, even though it was apparently by luck that Mr. Mohammed fell into government hands last week. Late Tuesday night, by Somalia government accounts, he got lost on the outskirts of Mogadishu and drove into a government checkpoint when he had thought he was heading to a Shabab area. Somali troops opened fire on his truck, and Mr. Mohammed and an associate were killed instantly. It was a surprise end for a man for whom the American government had been searching for years.
“We have overpowered Al Qaeda and Al Shabab in Somalia; they are weak and now melting away,” proclaimed President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed on Sunday.
And you are correct, Sunni Man! The problem in Somalia stems, to a greater degree, from discontent with US propped government!
High_Gravity, your picture is very colorful. I hope troop shown are veterans, seeing most are grey-headed.
And you are correct, Sunni Man! The problem in Somalia stems, to a greater degree, from discontent with US propped government!
High_Gravity, your picture is very colorful. I hope troop shown are veterans, seeing most are grey-headed.
And you are correct, Sunni Man! The problem in Somalia stems, to a greater degree, from discontent with US propped government!
High_Gravity, your picture is very colorful. I hope troop shown are veterans, seeing most are grey-headed.
The killing of this guy ain't going to make an ounce of difference.
The western backed puppet President is full of hot air.
Somalia is an enigma inside of a riddle that even Somali's can't figure out.
The mosque I attend is about 50% somali
So I know what I am talking about.
To Somali's the tribe/clan/sub clan is everything.
Every tribe/clan has age old friends and enemies.
So tribes/clans that are aligned with Al Shabab are doing so to align against their enemy tribes.
Ideology has little influence in their alliances.
Plus, all tribes dislike/hate the government.
Except the tribe/clan to which the current President is a member.
They will support him and the government.
Somalia is now divided into 3 distinct territories.
Puntland is the northern 3rd that wants to form their own country and has a very robust economy.
Somali Land which is the southern 3rd and also want's to break away and form their own country is doing well also.
And in the center is Somali and the city of Mogudishu. Where the western backed government is located. This is the poverty and war racked area that is always shown on the Western media.
Each of these 3 areas have distinct tribal/clan loyalties that no government will ever be able to subdue.
Now add the centuries old xenophobia that is the essence of Somali culture.
And the various warlords who run the tribes/clans/sub clans
Even King Soloman couldn't navigate thru the maze known as Somalia
The U.S. government has a hard on for Somalia since the Black Hawk Down days.
The somali people could work out their differences if the West would leave them alone.
Like I said; Puntland in the north and Somali land in the south are economically doing very well.
And are not having fighting and conflicts like the center section called Somalia.
The center section is where the Western backed puppet government is located.
And this is were all of the fighting is taking place.
Because the somali people hate outside influences and foreign soldiers on their land.
We support African Union and Etiopion soldiers who keep invading Somali on our behalf.
And I assume that you are aware that we still bomb parts of Somalia on a regular basis?
The U.S. government has a hard on for Somalia since the Black Hawk Down days.
The somali people could work out their differences if the West would leave them alone.
Like I said; Puntland in the north and Somali land in the south are economically doing very well.
And are not having fighting and conflicts like the center section called Somalia.
The center section is where the Western backed puppet government is located.
And this is were all of the fighting is taking place.
Because the somali people hate outside influences and foreign soldiers on their land.
We support African Union and Etiopion soldiers who keep invading Somali on our behalf.
And I assume that you are aware that we still bomb parts of Somalia on a regular basis?
I know there are drone strikes in Somalia like we do in Yemen and Pakistan however I don't know when the last one was, so you think if the US and the West just cut Somalia off, everything would improve? the US Military hasn't been in Somalia since 1993 and they are still struggling. You think it would be better to let Puntland and Somaliland separate?
The U.S. government has a hard on for Somalia since the Black Hawk Down days.
The somali people could work out their differences if the West would leave them alone.
Like I said; Puntland in the north and Somali land in the south are economically doing very well.
And are not having fighting and conflicts like the center section called Somalia.
The center section is where the Western backed puppet government is located.
And this is were all of the fighting is taking place.
Because the somali people hate outside influences and foreign soldiers on their land.
We support African Union and Etiopion soldiers who keep invading Somali on our behalf.
And I assume that you are aware that we still bomb parts of Somalia on a regular basis?
I know there are drone strikes in Somalia like we do in Yemen and Pakistan however I don't know when the last one was, so you think if the US and the West just cut Somalia off, everything would improve? the US Military hasn't been in Somalia since 1993 and they are still struggling. You think it would be better to let Puntland and Somaliland separate?
That is BULLShIT!
U.S. Air Strike In Somalia - CBS News VideoThat is BULLShIT!
