On the road to elections.

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by ekrem, Jul 22, 2010.

  1. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    In Septermber will be a citizen's referendum in Turkey regarding consitutional amandments in the judiciary. Then, somewhere between September 2010 and July 2011 will be general elections.
    The date is dependent on outcome of referendum.
    This thread will cover the road to election.
     
  2. ekrem
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    Erdogan Losing Support as Turkish Opposition Pulls Ahead in Opinion Poll
    - Bloomberg


    CHP: 33.5 %
    AKP: 31.1 %
    MHP: 15.49 %
    SONAR Temmuz anketinde 1. parti hangisi? - Foto Galeri
    CNNTurk.com


    Polling company (SONAR) is very serious and predicted the outcome of 2007 elections:

    July 2007 -->
    Sonar'ýn seçim anketinde de AKP birinci parti / Siyaset / Milliyet Ýnternet


    July 2010 -->
    [​IMG]

    Every party below 10% will fail on the threshhold. That means a party must get at least 10% of total votes to get into parliament.
     
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  3. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Political spectrum:

    AKP
    Centre-right
    Economic Liberalism
    Conservatism
    Justice and Development Party (Turkey) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    CHP
    Centre-left
    Social Democracy
    Kemalist Ideology
    Republican People's Party (Turkey) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    MHP
    Far right
    Turkish nationalism
    Nationalist Movement Party - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    No political party will reach absolute majority in next elections. So a coalitions has to be formed. It seems not possible that a coalition with participation of AKP therein will be formed.

    CHP wants to remove immunity of AKP and take them to court because of corruption.
    Leader of MHP, Mr. Bahceli, was accused by Mr. Erdogan as being a fascist in a speech in Mr. Bahceli's hometown in Osmaniye.
    Also, there were some physical fights between AKP and MHP parliamentarians in Parliament. The MHP leader issued a warning to AKP not to near any MHP parliamentarian within 1 meters in Parliament.

    Time: 1:45
    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ba0jfSthZs4]YouTube - Meclis'te Yumruk Yumru?a Kavga...[/ame]



    The youth organization of the MHP is the so-called Idealist Youth.
    Grey Wolves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
  4. ekrem
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    In 2007, the AKP passed a bill in Parliament to legalize women to wear head-scarf in University.
    The bill was nullified by Constitutional Court. The Court of Cassation started an investigation into AKP, and it charged the AKP on grounds of "being a focal point of anti-secular activities" at the Constitutional Court.
    Constitutional Court rejected the charge by the Court of Cassation.

    In Turkey it is common-sense, that head-scarf ban on University has to be lifted as it not only is a source of brain-drain of skilled women, but also religious discrimination.But they won't let the AKP lift the ban.

    K. Kilicdaroglu, leader of CHP and very likely to be next Prime Minister, has promised to lift the ban.
    In an interview with newspaper RADIKAL (don't look at the name, it is the newspaper of the Liberals), he was asked these questions:

    Question: Will women with head-scarf be able to enter Universities, once you become elected?
    K. Kilicdaroglu: We will establish equality in higher education, no one should have a doubt about this. We are determined to solve the head-scarf issue.
    Türban ve Kürt sorununu biz çözeriz / Politika / Radikal Ýnternet


    BBC Turkish interview (Video) on subject of Foreign Policy:
    Question: Since EU membership talks have started, the talks have cooled and dynamism lost...
    K. Kilicdaroglu:
    Turkey is not a country that can easily be incorporated into EU due to its Population size, Economic size and Culutural Charackteristics. What matters to us in this process is the different standards applied on our membership talks in contrast to previous membership talks. We are disturbed by these additional standards. If today there is talk of a re-orientation of Turkey, then our friends within EU also have to question their role in this.
    BBC Turkce - Haberler - K?l?çdaro?lu BBC'ye konu?tu: AB ile yeni ba?lang?ç hedefliyoruz

    The first foreign visit of Kilicdaroglu since becoming party leader of CHP has been to North Cyprus. There he said, Turkey will not become an EU member and there is no reason to give concessions on Cyprus issue to the EU. Turkey would stop re-unification talks between North and South Cyprus. The area of Famagusta, which the South Cypriots claim as theirs, which is subject of re-unification talks and therefore had not been developed infrastructurally, will be instrumentalized economically for the benefit of North Cyprus.
    Kýlýçdaroðlu: "Ben olsam Maraþ'ý açarým" - KIBRIS POSTASI - KIBRIS HABERLERÝ

    On Iraq issue and the presence of PKK he said, that Turkey will establish a military buffer zone in flat-lands of Iraq:
    Kilicdaroglu: "Buffer zone needed" - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

    In Foreign Policy, the CHP accuses the AKP of playing a double-faced game regarding Israel. In the basis of the "One minute" incident in World Economic Forum in Davos, Kilicdaroglu says, that AKP says in public "One Minute" but behind closed doors "Yes please". Turkey agreed and did not veto Israel's OECD membership on May 20th 2010 allthough the Palestinian government protested against this move.
    K?l?çdaro?lu: Kap?lar arkas?nda 'Yes please' - Siyaset - ntvmsnbc.com

    According to Kilicdaroglu, all agreements with Israel, including social and cultural need to be cancelled. The killings of the flottila were an insult to Turkey and Israel needs definately to pay for this.
    http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/1...nts-with-israel-should-be-canceled-quot-.html
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
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    The MHP party is the most developed party in terms of grassroots organizations.
    During Cold War it was funded by CIA in anti-communist activities. Its supporters were heavily involved in Turkish branche of Gladio and Counter-Guerilla:
    Counter-Guerrilla - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Grey Wolves - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    In modern times, the MHP left its duties of the Cold War and transformed into a full democratic party, albeit standing on the far right. MHP has an electoral base of about 12-18 % of population. Currently it has 15.49 % support:
    http://www.usmessageboard.com/the-m...883-on-the-road-to-elections.html#post2534921
    The links to USA are not anymore cultivated.

    In Foreign policy the party programe of the MHP calls for:
    - a deterrent, eurasian-centrist foreign policy with Russia the preferential trade partner
    - political integration with Central Asia
    - removing the perception of EU being a "life or death"-issue for Turkey
    Page 125-129 of party programe
    http://www.mhp.org.tr/kitaplar/mhp_parti_programi_2009_opt.pdf
    - to redefine US-Turkish relations based on equal interests (Page 132)


    The ideology of MHP overlaps with those of the influential movement of Russia's Alexander Dugin
    Aleksandr Dugin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
     
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    On 12th September will be referendum.
    12th September is also anniversary of the 12th September 1980 military coup.

    If referendum is approved, the judiciary in Turkey will be redefined:
    - limit the jurisdiction of military courts and allow civilian courts to try soldiers in peace time for coup attempts and offences related to national security and organised crime.
    - the army chief and his top four aides to be tried at the Supreme Court.
    - trial of the leaders of the 1980 coup
    - give civil servants the right to collective bargaining but not the right to strike
    - expand women's and children's rights.
    AFP: Turkey's government faces referendum test

    AKP urges to vote YES. CHP and MHP urge NO.

    EU supports the constitutional changes, as accountability of Army in front of civil courts is a key demand of EU from Turkey in the membership process.
     
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    K?l?çdaro?lu sending the wrong message to Europe - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

    The thing is, that neither of the 3 big political parties will be able to rule Turkey after next elections. AKP and CHP are the parties with broadest support, both will have to court the smaller MHP into a coalition.

    Allthough the CHP is considered Social Democrat, Nationalism is also a key part of CHP.
    Turkey Analyst,
    vol. 3 no. 11 - Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program
     
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    National Intelligence Council, which brings together all 16 US intelligence agencies, argues in its recent report titled Global Trends 2025 that Turkey’s most likely course in the next 15 years involves a blending of Islamic and nationalist strains.
    (...)
    The NIC said it expected secularism in the Middle East to decline in line with the Turkish example. "In the Middle East, secularism, which also has been considered an integral part of the Western model, increasingly may be seen as out of place as Islamic parties come into prominence and possibly begin to run governments," it said. "As in today’s Turkey, we could see both increased Islamization and greater emphasis on economic growth and modernization." But a more Middle Eastern and Islamic Turkey is a candidate for more important roles, the NIC said.
    US spies see stronger, Islamic Turkey in 2025


    Full report:
    http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
    It also says Indonesia, Iran and Turkey to shape the patterns of the Muslim world. In case of Iran, when it is run post-clerically.
    In case of Turkey, Turkey must come to peace with Islamic identity.
    Indonesia is a side-player in terms of geography and proximity to Muslim core lands.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2010
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    Turkey: the record-breaker
    The Istanbul stock market today hit a new record high
    (...)
    12 per cent increase in gross domestic product in the first quarter, the world’s highest among larger economies except for China.
    (...)
    Turkish bank profits rose 14 per cent in the first five months of 2010
    (...)
    Turkey (...) has not been lionised like China, Brazil and India, but it is not far behind .
    By European standards its prospects look stellar.

    Financial Times
    Turkey: the record-breaker | beyondbrics | FT.com
     

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