Oil/Gas Question

[Cain]

I am asking the forum members to help me out in a question I have.

What happens when gas/oil becomes too expensive for people to use? I mean, I live 20+ miles from the closest city [closest town is about 10-12] and we live on a farm in the middle of nowhere, we can't exactly bike/walk too town, even though I know I could probably bike 20 miles, I do not believe it would be a option for school lol, although who knows. Thank the lord I am getting out of here in 3 months.

I have already closed the idea of getting a truck, seeing as how the Jeep I like just as much gets 23-29mpg average, a lot better then 14-20; now I am wondering, are vehicles really all that important? I have no problem riding a horse to work, although I'd prefer a mule or donkey, less issues and have more sense. (Have raised members of all the families, horse/donkey/mule/cow/emu/llama)

I am just wondering cause I personally have no idea, I mean, the only thing I can think is riots/mobs in the streets trying to figure out how their going to survive.

 

[Two Thumbs]

During the fuel shortage under Carter I don't recall any riots.

You live on a farm, so if riots did happen, you can watch the cities burn. B/c that's the only place that will have problems b/c people will lack the space to grow enough food to feed themselves, even fewer will have the knowledge and fewer still the skill/talent.

for me, if it gets to high, I'll take the bus, if the bus jacks the price up, I'll either walk or put in to work from home.

I had a garden in paint buckets last year with poor to fair results, so when food prices go up, more, I'm going to be pressed to feed my kids.

 

[Foxfyre]

I don't believe it has ever happened that an essential product became cost prohibitive for more than a very few. High gasoline prices will almost certainly force many people to plan better--set out routes to maximize efficiency in shopping etc. when we do drive our cars/trucks. There will probably be more carpooling. More working from home. Fewer or closer in vacations. Trips to Grandma's spaced out longer. Etc. Those of you out on the farm might invest in a larger freezer, canning supplies, and schedule fewer shopping trips to town. Higher school costs to run busses could likely result in cutting non essential classes, sports, etc. In other words, people will generally find ways to manage. This is not the first time American ingenuity went into high gear to deal with high prices and shortages.

The more serious problem are shortages making Petroleum unavailable for some or for some purposes. At least spring is coming on so folks are less likely to freeze, but if some processes and products that require petroleum are not able to get all they need, that will show up in higher costs for those products and services and will likely result in more unemployment. Already trucking companies are cutting back to save on fuel so it may take longer to get products to market and some smaller markets may be cut off entirely.

Look on the bright side. Maybe this oil crisis will prompt our fearless leaders to pull their heads out of the sand, relax non essential regulations and restrictions so we can start revving up domestic production again.

I'm not holding my breath however.

 

[Toronado3800]

First step is to ditch my MarkVIII and buy something that uses its technology to get 50mpg. Driving my 280hp 24mpg car around is a pure luxury. 100hp will get a family of four down the road just fine.

 

[Care4all]

cain

higher oil/gas prices will hurt us all around...because food and the cost of producing it, will rise....so, 2 necessities....transportation to and fro work will be higher AND food and clothes will be higher in price as well...

if wages continue to stay stagnant, this will be a major burden on MOST of middle America....the middle class.

although i am not necessarily against drilling more in some of the nationally restricted areas of the usa, i disagree with Foxfyre....increased drilling in the US will NOT lower the prices of oil and the oil drilled here, is sold on the global market and not held here in the usa....for only our use.

i do agree with Foxfyre that we will use our ingenuity, to get by.

And we will eventually find another energy source, to fuel our needs....it won't be easy....a lot of hardships to come....for certain!

 

[KissMy]

Rather than go overboard with drastic measures it makes more energy sense to stop shopping as much at stores & have goods delivered to your home. Live close to work, carpool & combine trips as much as possible. Stock-up to reduce trips to stores.

A Chinese worker lives in a dorm at their work place. The average China worker consumes less than 2 barrels of oil per year to live & make products for Americans. The average American consumes over 20 barrels of oil per year to live & make products. It is much, much, much more fuel efficient to make products in China & ship them to American homes than it is for Americans to go to work to make & buy their own goods.

A ocean cargo ship gets over 1,100 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A barge gets 575 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A train gets 425 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A semi truck gets 170 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A UPS delivery truck gets 15 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A Jet plane gets 7 net freight ton miles per gallon.
A 1/2 ton pick-up truck completly filled both ways gets 9 net freight ton miles per gallon. One way 4.5 net freight ton miles per gallon.
An average 20-lbs of goods per car trip to the store empty one way gets 0.125 net freight ton miles per gallon.

FYI - CNBC just did a story (Supermarkets Inc.) on grocery stores. The average American spends $35 per trip to the supermarket & goes shopping 3.5 times per week. You can't even buy 20-lbs worth of groceries for $35. So the average net freight ton miles per gallon for grocery shopping is likely lower than the 0.125 I quoted above. If we would just combine trips, buy more per trip, carpool, take a neighbor shopping with us or do their shopping for them or order online & have things delivered we could more than double our mileage & cut our transportation fuel consumption by more than 50%.

 

[boedicca]

We are already seeing what will happen:

- Energy and food prices are not counted by the government in core inflation, so they will ignore the issue and actually claim economic growth as consumers pay more for less goods.

- The economy will meander at a moribund pace, causing more people to drop out of the labor force. The government will use this shrinkage to claim improvements in unemployment.

- The moribund economy will cause tax receipts to be lower than projected while the permanent Big Government Establishment refuses to cut 2% of spending. The deficts will be bigger than expected.

- The larger deficits will increase the governments need for borrowing; foreign buyers of debt will demand higher interest payments. Higher interest payments will increase the deficit. Return to the above point and repeat.

- The disconnect between the official Administration Spin and the reality of stagflation for the vast majority of Americans will be The Issue in 2012.

- Obama will lose; and if we are smart and lucky, we will elect someone who will quickly undo the Obamanation of his ignorant fiscal and economic policies before we reach the point of no return.

 

[editec]

In the 50s and 60s gas was cheap and people with jobs moved to the burbs and the poor remained behind.

As gas gets dear, people are moving back into the cities, and the poor are getting displaced.

People will adapt to changing condition if the changes aren't so rapid that they cannot change in time.

 

[Mr. H.]

Cain, aren't you more worried about the high cost of oil/gas affecting your farm's input costs?

 

[Two Thumbs]

In the 50s and 60s gas was cheap and people with jobs moved to the burbs and the poor remained behind.

As gas gets dear, people are moving back into the cities, and the poor are getting displaced.

People will adapt to changing condition if the changes aren't so rapid that they cannot change in time.

You got a link that shows more poor people are getting displaced? Or one that shows people to moving into cities? Where it is far more expensive to live.

 

[Midnight Marauder]

What happens when gas/oil becomes too expensive for people to use?

That's.... LONG been the goal of the watermelons. Read Al Gore's 1992 book, "Earth in the Balance," the "Mein Kampf" of the EnviroNazi movement.

 

[RGR]

I am just wondering cause I personally have no idea, I mean, the only thing I can think is riots/mobs in the streets trying to figure out how their going to survive.

Crude oil is such a wonderful chemical feedstock that burning it to move ourselves from here to there for cigarettes, beer and fast food is perhaps one of the most ignorant misallocation of resources since the dawn of man.

But there is just so much of the stuff around..."Why not use it!" seems more like the operative attitude.

Modify your behavior, and your expectations, and you won't notice rising gas prices in the least.

My personal example. When gas was $1.50/gal I drove a V8 powered pickup at 13 mpg. At $3/gal I'll drive an Escape Hybrid at 26 mpg. At $4/gal I'll switch to a Camry hybrid at 39mpg. At $5/gal I buy a Prius.

Under all these scenario's I spend the exact same amount for fuel, even though the price has gone up by 300%+.

Correspondingly, you can drive less. Drive half as much for each doubling in price and you'll still pay the same money for fuel. And can keep your Jeep, if that is really want to drive.

So pick your price point, and make your capital investment accordingly.

 

[KissMy]

In the 50s and 60s gas was cheap and people with jobs moved to the burbs and the poor remained behind.

As gas gets dear, people are moving back into the cities, and the poor are getting displaced.

People will adapt to changing condition if the changes aren't so rapid that they cannot change in time.

You got a link that shows more poor people are getting displaced? Or one that shows people to moving into cities? Where it is far more expensive to live.

If we can get rid of the government union pensions, the cost of living in the city would come way down & compete with rural living. Rural government is tons cheaper than cities. The per citizen & per household cost in cities should cheaper due to efficiency in the city vs rural but currently it is way more expensive due to politicians & union benefits.

 

[Mini 14]

On behalf of the Pawnbrokers and Gun Dealers of America, I say

BRING IT!!!!

 

[JiggsCasey]

I am just wondering cause I personally have no idea, I mean, the only thing I can think is riots/mobs in the streets trying to figure out how their going to survive.

Crude oil is such a wonderful chemical feedstock that burning it to move ourselves from here to there for cigarettes, beer and fast food is perhaps one of the most ignorant misallocation of resources since the dawn of man.

But there is just so much of the stuff around..."Why not use it!" seems more like the operative attitude.

Modify your behavior, and your expectations, and you won't notice rising gas prices in the least.

My personal example. When gas was $1.50/gal I drove a V8 powered pickup at 13 mpg. At $3/gal I'll drive an Escape Hybrid at 26 mpg. At $4/gal I'll switch to a Camry hybrid at 39mpg. At $5/gal I buy a Prius.

Under all these scenario's I spend the exact same amount for fuel, even though the price has gone up by 300%+.

Correspondingly, you can drive less. Drive half as much for each doubling in price and you'll still pay the same money for fuel. And can keep your Jeep, if that is really want to drive.

So pick your price point, and make your capital investment accordingly.

Unfortunately, rising fuel prices effects every aspect of the global economy, not just our Sunday driving habits.

*The price of corn has doubled over the last six months.
*The price of wheat has more than doubled over the past year.
*The price of soybeans is up about 50% since last June.
*The price of cotton has more than doubled over the past year.
*The commodity price of orange juice has doubled since 2009.
*The price of sugar is the highest it has been in 30 years.

Then of course, there's the small business, and it's capacity to hire/maintain employees.

 

[Care4all]

In the 50s and 60s gas was cheap and people with jobs moved to the burbs and the poor remained behind.

As gas gets dear, people are moving back into the cities, and the poor are getting displaced.

People will adapt to changing condition if the changes aren't so rapid that they cannot change in time.

You got a link that shows more poor people are getting displaced? Or one that shows people to moving into cities? Where it is far more expensive to live.

he's saying that IF more people from the suburbs move back in to the city, then the poor will be displaced...

HOW?

Because land is limited and housing with it....and due to the limited product...housing....and the higher demand for housing, the price of housing and rent in the city will rise rise and rise....this will eventually displace the poor, who can not afford the higher rents that those from the suburbs moving in to the city can pay.

 

[Foxfyre]

I am just wondering cause I personally have no idea, I mean, the only thing I can think is riots/mobs in the streets trying to figure out how their going to survive.

Crude oil is such a wonderful chemical feedstock that burning it to move ourselves from here to there for cigarettes, beer and fast food is perhaps one of the most ignorant misallocation of resources since the dawn of man.

But there is just so much of the stuff around..."Why not use it!" seems more like the operative attitude.

Modify your behavior, and your expectations, and you won't notice rising gas prices in the least.

My personal example. When gas was $1.50/gal I drove a V8 powered pickup at 13 mpg. At $3/gal I'll drive an Escape Hybrid at 26 mpg. At $4/gal I'll switch to a Camry hybrid at 39mpg. At $5/gal I buy a Prius.

Under all these scenario's I spend the exact same amount for fuel, even though the price has gone up by 300%+.

Correspondingly, you can drive less. Drive half as much for each doubling in price and you'll still pay the same money for fuel. And can keep your Jeep, if that is really want to drive.

So pick your price point, and make your capital investment accordingly.

Yup. (On another board) the last time gas prices skyrocketed, we had this same disussion and there were those who saw the practical side of it as you do. When prices rise, those of us with finite resources make do with less, conserve more, become more careful, plan better. When things are cheap they are far more expendable and we are far more careless in using them.

And then there is the factor of difference in need. If you live near a bus stop, you need private transportation less. But if you are only a half mile to a mile from work, you can drive your beloved Hummer to and from work and consume far less fuel than will the guy driving the Prius 20 miles to and from work.

This thread started with the concern of one who lives far outside the city. But where we live is a choice for most and there will always be tradeoffs when we decide what is more important.

It was not cheap fuel that drove people to the suburbs but crime and deterioration of other qualify of life factors.

 

[KissMy]

although i am not necessarily against drilling more in some of the nationally restricted areas of the usa, i disagree with Foxfyre....increased drilling in the US will NOT lower the prices of oil and the oil drilled here, is sold on the global market and not held here in the usa....for only our use.

Your political rhetoric has been proven wrong. "Drill Here Drill Now" has & will lower oil prices. Stop regurgitating democrat fact-less lies, spin, & talking points. What drove oil prices up to $145.29? Here is a clue. This coincided with the "Peak Oil" media blitz. Similar to the Enron Power Scam. Oil traders leased most of the oil tankers tying them up to restrict the transportation of oil to markets. They stored their oil in these tankers & parked them offshore so they would not count in inventory creating the illusion of an oil shortage. This is called "Floating Storage"

Oil Stored at Sea Washes Out Rallies
More oil is being produced than recession-stricken economies need, and prices have fallen as the extra crude fills storage terminals world-wide. Crude-futures prices are down 72% from the record hit in July... The oil sitting at sea adds an extra layer of uncertainty about the supply overhang, which traders said must be whittled down for oil prices to rebound. Tankers carrying up to two million barrels each aren't counted in official statistics. Ship trackers estimate that as many as 80 million barrels may be on the water, or more than twice the amount kept in the largest commercial storage center in the U.S., in Cushing, Okla.

What Event Happened on the very day oil stopped climbing past $145.29 & began its decline all the way down to $33.87? That is a $112 drop in oil prices!

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FusqAtX0OJ8"]Oil Drops $112 because of this![/ame]

Amazing I Tell You, Utterly Amazing! If you think I am lying about the cause of the $112 drop, Check the date against the oil price charts. Now you see "Drill Baby Drill" worked. Don't you just hate it when Sarah Palin is smarter than you. This stuck all those Enron type traders with ship loads of oil that they lost their ass on. Now what event happened on the very day Oil Prices started to climb again from the $33 dollar low. Hint (New Administration took office). Check The Charts! Now every time Obama threatens to stop drilling, these Enron type "Floating Storage" scum bags make their money back. How Fucking Stupid is this Obama Idiot?

Bloomberg - Oil Imports Surge as Traders Unwind Floating Storage Bets: Energy Markets

Oil imports into the Gulf of Mexico region surged to a record last week as the profits from floating storage evaporated, pushing traders to unload their cargoes and forcing crude futures lower.

The price advantage for traders who buy oil and store it at sea for a month instead of delivering it immediately has shrunk 90 percent since May. Floating storage in the Gulf dropped 24 percent in the week ended July 23, Bloomberg data show.

“What was going on last week was dumping the crude,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The spread is putting pressure on those holding inventories on tankers to move it ashore.”

Stockpiles unexpectedly rose 7.31 million barrels, or 2.1 percent, to 360.8 million in the week ended July 23, confounding analysts who predicted inventories would fall 1.73 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, to their lowest level in four months. A surge in imports to Gulf states contributed to the glut, Energy Department figures showed July 28.

 

[Dot Com]

Sure we need goods transported but it seems Americans, in their daily private lives, have been groomed to believe that get anywhere farther than 1/2 mile form your house requires pushing @ a ton or more of steel. It stands to reason that the largest profit- maker in the world approves of that mind set too, Exxon. I've ridden/commuted to jobs on bicycles but I live in a suburban/urban area.

 

[Dot Com]

In the 50s and 60s gas was cheap and people with jobs moved to the burbs and the poor remained behind.

As gas gets dear, people are moving back into the cities, and the poor are getting displaced.

People will adapt to changing condition if the changes aren't so rapid that they cannot change in time.

You got a link that shows more poor people are getting displaced? Or one that shows people to moving into cities? Where it is far more expensive to live.

he's saying that IF more people from the suburbs move back in to the city, then the poor will be displaced...

HOW?

Because land is limited and housing with it....and due to the limited product...housing....and the higher demand for housing, the price of housing and rent in the city will rise rise and rise....this will eventually displace the poor, who can not afford the higher rents that those from the suburbs moving in to the city can pay.

Yeah. It's termed- 'gentrification'. The banks buy out low-moderate income housing, demolish it and build condos. low- moderate people are forced out.