Oil discoveries dispel "Peak Oil" as myth

Discussion in 'Energy' started by mdn2000, Nov 17, 2010.

  1. KissMy
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    Peak Tight Oil By 2022? EIA Thinks It's Possible
    The US unconventional oil will peak between 2022 & 2050. Global unconventional oil peak won't be far behind. Better be dead by then, or will die of scarcity & resource wars. US conventional oil production peaked in 1970 & Global conventional oil production peaked in 2004.
     
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  2. KissMy
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    Gasoline price was $0.25/gal before US 1970 peak. It was $1.20 after the US 1970 peak. Gasoline price remained around that $1.20/gal level until the Global peak in 2004 exploded when it exploded to about $4.00. Gasoline price will explode to about $12.00/gal when US peak unconventional oil hits & $40.00+/gal when Global peak unconventional oil hits.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018
  3. Sunsettommy
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    Bwahahahahahahaha, your typical ignorance of "peal oil" thinking exposed once again. There is a LOT of untapped oil and gas yet to be drilled in large areas of the world as shown here:

    The End of Oil and Gas

    Selected excerpt:

    "Technology, Price and Oil Supply

    I’ve previously written that technically recoverable oil and gas reserves (or resources, if you prefer that term) are much larger than assumed by peak oil enthusiasts. But, even that conservative estimate of over eight trillion barrels of technically recoverable oil equivalent (at prices seen recently) is probably too low. Advancing deep-water drilling and production technology has opened huge new prospective areas, as seen in Figure 5.

    [​IMG]

    Figure 5. The new areas opened with recent advances in technology are shown in purple."

    Scraping the bottom of the barrel you say...….

    :auiqs.jpg::auiqs.jpg::auiqs.jpg:

    A partial list of FAILED Peak oil predictions:

    "1941: US Dept. of the Interior: “American oil supplies will last only another 13 years.”

    1943, Oil and Gas Journal: “There is a growing opinion that the United States has reached its peak oil production, the Oil and Gas Journal pointed out in its current issue. Since 1938, discoveries of new oil have not equaled withdrawals, in any single year, although there is a very good chance that 1943 will see enough new Ellenburger oil in West Texas to provide an excess.”

    1956, Hubbert: “M. King Hubbert of the Shell Development Co. predicted [one year ago] that peak oil production would be reached in the next 10 to 15 years and after that would gradually decline.”

    1957: The residents of Tulsa, Oklahoma buried a car as part of a large time capsule. They buried containers of gasoline with it because they feared there would be no gasoline in 2007 when the capsule was to be opened. Link.

    May, 1972, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Richard Wilson: “At any rate, U.S. oil supplies will last only 20 years. Foreign supplies will last 40 or 50 years but are increasingly dependent upon world politics.”

    1977, US Department of Energy Organization Act: “As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.” Link.

    1978: Glenn Seaborg, chairman AEC: “We are living in the twilight of the petroleum age.”

    1980, Dr. Hans Bethe: The world will reach peak oil production before the year 2000.

    1996, Dr. Richard Smalley: “…oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. “

    2002, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden: “Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval — or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.” Link.

    2005, Chris Skrebowski, editor of the Energy Institute in London Petroleum Review: “We should be worried. Time is short, and we are not even at the point where we admit we have a problem … Governments are always excessively optimistic. The problem is that the peak, which I think is 2008, is tomorrow in planning terms.”

    Stop fighting reality.
     
  4. Sunsettommy
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    You forgot to factor in inflation. From InflationData.com

    Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices

    selected excerpt:

    "If we look at the chart below we see that in inflation adjusted terms, the first low occurred in 1931 as nominal prices fell from 30 cents a gallon in 1920 to 17 cents in 1931. Thus in 11 years prices fell 43%. But we have to remember that 1931 was the beginning of the “Great Depression” and overall prices fell 24% during the same period. As we can see gasoline prices fell much more than prices in general in the early portion. It is interesting to note that in January 2016 prices for gasoline on an inflation adjusted basis are actually much lower than they were during the depression."

    You have no idea what is going on as your ignorance is clear.
     
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  5. Sunsettommy
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    You keep ignoring post 385 where it shows that year 2004 peak is illusory because, this below is written by a 35 year Petroleum Geologist expert who is at the forefront of the industry.

    "This doesn’t mean that the production rate literally peaked in 2004. It means that a hundred years from now, if you fit a logistic function to the data, the peak would be around 2004. However, proved reserves are a moving target because they only represent a fraction of the oil that is likely to be produced from existing fields. “Reserves” has a very specific legal definition. In the US, “reserves” generally means proved reserves (1P). In less regulated nations, “reserves” often includes probable (2P) and/or possible (3P) reserves. Most of the “off limits” areas would fall under “prospective resources”…"

    red bolding mine

    Your ignorance continues because you are so taken in by peak oil ideology.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2018
  6. Sunsettommy
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    Here is a cogent comment from ANDY MAY that shows it is PRICE not supply that will determine when oil is no longer competitively viable even when there are still a lot left.

    Andy May
    Kristi Silber, I don’t think you read all of my post. I actually agree with what you have written about how “peak consumption” will occur and my agreement is in the post. Simply stated, peak consumption is reached when oil and gas are too expensive. I quote my post:

    “In short, just because 95% of the oil is from historical “conventional” field types, does not mean that will continue. Other sources of oil will be found and developed if there is demand at the price required to make the fields profitable. The limit on the supply of oil has nothing to do with whether it is conventional or unconventional. It has everything to do with demand at the price required to make a profit. Once the price reaches a level where people find another energy source preferable, oil and gas will decline. As long as the price can go up, additional resources will always be found. We agree with Peter Jackson and Leta Smith:
    “We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price? As the plateau approaches, oil prices are likely to increase strongly, with some very severe spikes along the way.” (Jackson and Smith 2013)”

    On BP. BP, like me, does not predict peak oil consumption at all. They only say we have 55 years of oil and gas left. We both believe that peak oil has nothing to do with supply, for all practical purposes supply is infinite. It has everything to do with cost and the cost of competitors. Right now, oil and gas have a huge cost advantage over all the competition, except for coal and nuclear. Both coal and nuclear have political problems, but if those go away, one of them could replace a lot (but not all) of the oil and gas consumption. Oil and gas are too useful, in too many areas. They are hard to replace completely."

    red bolding mine
     
  7. watchingfromafar
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    The last four (4) posts were yours.
    I do believe you are talking to yourself again.
    And I can see that it all amounts to a lot of wishful thinking on your part.

    Don't worry, the world is unfolding as it should
     
  8. Sunsettommy
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    Meanwhile you come back with nothing to counter as it should, but piling it on to show what a bunch of KNUCKLEHEADS peak oil morons are, yes you guys are indeed IGNORANT as hell!

    David Middleton

    Oil doesn’t have to be infinite, forever or renewable for there to be a helluva lot of it in the Earth’s crust.

    [​IMG]

    How Much Oil Does the World Have Left?

    2015 Global Crude Oil Production, Reserves, Resources
    Cumulative production 1,200 billion bbl – The total volume consumed.
    Proved reserves 1,680 – The volume of oil in the ground producible by existing wells.
    Conventional Resources 1,435 – The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in conventional reservoirs.
    Unconventional Resources 2,815 – The volume of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in unconventional reservoirs.

    Total oil consumed: 1,200 billion bbl (17%)
    Total oil remaining to be consumed 5,930 billion bbl (83%)
    Total recoverable oil: 7,130 billion bbl (100%)

    Assuming the a the estimated resource potential doesn’t increase, the world has 211 years worth of crude oil remaining at current consumption rates.


    [​IMG]

    red bolding mine

    LINK

    Peak Oil fans wrong again!!!
     
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  9. Sunsettommy
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    I see that when I started posting the hard evidence straight from actual experts working in the field in the thread, it quickly died out. It is clear "peak oil" believers KNOW they have no case for their claims.

    Several points of evidence completely ignored such as this one:

    "Assuming the a the estimated resource potential doesn’t increase, the world has 211 years worth of crude oil remaining at current consumption rates."

    Give it up.
     
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  10. watchingfromafar
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    watchingfromafar VIP Member

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    That statement is based on the assumption that future technologies will develop a way get the oil we cannot get; as of yet.

    My father once asked me to spell out loud, "assume" one letter at a time and now I must ask you to do the same.
     

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