Official 10% Unemployment Rate is Really Almost 22%

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Foxfyre, Jan 11, 2010.

  1. Foxfyre
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    Foxfyre Eternal optimist Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    I was watching an interview with an economist this morning. He was stating that the actual unemployment rate is now over 20%; but the government is keeping the official rate at about 10%. Further, they have changed the definition of a job. Now a job is counted if it has been authorized even though there is no funding for it. Or, if there is an intention to create new positions or somebody might be hiring, it is counted as a job the administration has created or saved. New jobs no longer mean that somebody who wasn't working before is now working or somebody started up a new business or expanded an existing one and actually hired more people.

    So, I went looking for more information about that and found this:

     
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    Last edited: Jan 11, 2010
  2. bodecea
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    bodecea Diamond Member

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    Wow! That's Great Depression numbers. Who knew we had that many people out of work and on the streets....even more since the population is greater today.
     
  3. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    It is not Great Depression numbers.

    The closest estimate of unemployment during the Great Depression most closely approximates the U-3 numbers, which is 10%. During the 1930s, it was 25%.

    Michael Darda of MKM Partners estimates that using the U-6 numbers, which is 17% today, unemployment was 44%. And during the Depression, the participation was much lower than today since most women didn't work. Thus, if you were to adjust it for the participation rate, the 1930s would be even worse.

    As for the U-6 reading, if someone is an engineer, has been laid off and is now working at Wal-Mart, he is included in the U-6 figure. It may be an accurate estimates of labor capacity but it is misleading for an estimate of unemployment. If you are employed, you are employed regardless of what your education and qualifications are. Working at Wal-Mart means you are not unemployed, even if you are an engineer.
     
  4. Bill O'Olberman
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    Bill O'Olberman Active Member

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    I work between fifty to sixty hours a week at two part time jobs and am not really actively looking for a full time job right now since I am trying to get some school stuff straight for this fall or next. More than likely I would fall into that 21.9 percent of people who are unemployed though really I should just be considered "underemployed." But im 23 and get by and atleast I can say I get by, unlike a couple people who I know and graduated with in the spring 09 who dont even have a part time work.
     
  5. saveliberty
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    saveliberty Diamond Member

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    I respectfully disagree Toro. U6 counts those looking for work and those who had jobs, but have now stopped looking. In other words it is a full count of those who used to work and those looking. That is a more accurate number in relation to the Great Depression. Also, the Depression had a rate between 20 and 25% at its height.
     
  6. Conspiracist
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    Conspiracist Snuggle weather rocks!

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    Thanks a lot for this post. I was unemployed for just over a year and it was fuckin scary. I repair industrial equipment for a living, all phases, electrical, hydraulics, mechanical etc... I never had trouble finding work until that point when I was laid off in July of 2008. Interviewing was intense. You would be up aginst at least 30 applicants for every job you interviewed for. When employers have this much choice in potential employees with high skill levels it then becomes a game of lottery imho. But my gut feeling was that unemployment HAD to be higher than what was being put across the TV screens.

    I know too many that are unemployed or have taken reduced hours and loss of health benefits etc... just to keep working. I feel very lucky and blessed to have a job now and I have taken over 35% in pay cuts landing this job.
     
  7. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    U6 also includes those who are employed part-time.

    U6 definition

    Unemployment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    What's next? | The Economist
     
  8. Foxfyre
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    Foxfyre Eternal optimist Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    I hear you. When I advertised a part time position not long ago, it was a little job, didn't pay all that well for the amount of skill required, and came with minimal benefits and glamour. I expected the usual two or three nibbles and hoped one would be at least trainable and would take the job to get the flexible hours. I got more than 300 resumes! It's tough out there.

    The disheartening thing is that our current fearless leaders may think they're doing all they can, but they are such socialists at heart that they can't bring themselves to do what really would jump start the economy and get the ball rolling in a positive directon again. So I don't know when we'll see a light at the end of this tunnel. Good for you for doing what you have to do though. Been there and done that. And that which does not kill us only makes us stronger and all that.
     
  9. Cold Fusion38
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    Cold Fusion38 SUPER GENIUS

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    Wow Fox and from such an UNbiased source. You REALLY believe that MORE than 1 in 5 Americans are unemployed? I think you need to research your SOURCE more than the unemployment rate.
     
  10. Cold Fusion38
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    Cold Fusion38 SUPER GENIUS

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    Wow July of '08 is that BEFORE or after Obama got elected?
     

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