ODDS stacked heavily against GOP Presidential run in 2012... If we look historically for a guide: 2004, Bush is reelected 1996, Clinton is reelected 1992, Bush Sr. loses, but with a split vote (Perot) and against a much more charismatic candidate (Clinton) 1984, Reagan is reelected 1980, Carter loses, but with a split party (Kennedy) and against a much more charismatic candidate (Reagan) 1972, Nixon is reelected 1956, Eisenhower is reelected 1948, Truman is reeelcted 1936,'40,'44, Roosevelt is reelected ...11 campaigns for reelection since the Great Depression and radio addresses. 9 of 11 were successful. The two that weren't required a unique set of circumstances. #1, the candidate running against the incumbent was far superior. It would be hard to argue that Clinton and Reagan were not juggernauts. And #2, a split party. Bush certainly lost more to Perot than Clinton did. Carter lost a big chunk to Teddy. Those circumstances won't fall into place in 2012. There are no potential candidates that Obama will pale in comparison to and the party will not split. The only chance I see of a split would be Bloomberg or Feingold I suppose, but I don't think that's likely. Thoughts?