Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

[RDD_1210]

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

 

[uscitizen]

I'm going to buy a powerball ticket!

 

[RDD_1210]

Obviously these numbers are "biased", "faked" and "have an agenda".

 

[bripat9643]

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

Since NCDC doctors their data, we know the record isn't a random event. It was generated with a magic marker.

 

[Dr.House]

Odds that record temps are due to that big yellow ball in the sky:

1:1

Whodathunk?

 

[asterism]

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

Why limit the figures to mainland United States?

 

[whitehall]

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

Now a religious bigot thinks the world was created yesterday in geological terms. How far does climate "history" go? A hundred years? There are grooves in rock outcroppings in Central Park in NYC indicating that a glacier covered half of the East Coast. Those Neanderthals must have been pretty smart to cause an Ice Age.

 

[SFC Ollie]

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

Now a religious bigot thinks the world was created yesterday in geological terms. How far does climate "history" go? A hundred years? There are grooves in rock outcroppings in Central Park in NYC indicating that a glacier covered half of the East Coast. Those Neanderthals must have been pretty smart to cause an Ice Age.

Yeah, but dinosaur farts melted the ice.........

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

Something else Ezra Klein doesn't understand, statistical analysis. At least he admits it.

My colleague at Capital Weather, Jason Samenow, has a smart post passing on some criticisms of NCDC’s 1 in 1.6 million figure, with one analyst suggesting that the true probability is likely closer to “less than 1 in 100,000,” since the months aren’t uncorrelated with each other. Fair point. The record heat was unlikely, but not 1 in 1.6 million unlikely. Samenow also has a longer breakdown of how improbable the recent heat wave in D.C. was from a statistical point of view.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Obviously these numbers are "biased", "faked" and "have an agenda".

Your attempt at sarcasm fell way short considering the fact that the numbers actually have been proven to be biased in the very article you linked to, thanks for playing though.

 

[RDD_1210]

Obviously these numbers are "biased", "faked" and "have an agenda".

Your attempt at sarcasm fell way short considering the fact that the numbers actually have been proven to be biased in the very article you linked to, thanks for playing though.

You could have selected a better image.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Obviously these numbers are "biased", "faked" and "have an agenda".

Your attempt at sarcasm fell way short considering the fact that the numbers actually have been proven to be biased in the very article you linked to, thanks for playing though.

You could have selected a better image.

I will work on it next time.

 

[skookerasbil]

The k00ks find cracker jack shit from every nether-region of the internet.


So genius...........what are the odds of my balls falling off tonight?


In other words? Nobody cares.

 

[IanC]

as always climate science gets their math wrong. why dont they ever ask statisticians for help before they make these proclaimations? oh right! because people only remember the first story, never the refutation that comes afterwards.

most people totally underestimate the odds of certain things happening. like how many people do you need to have in a room before it is likely that 2 have the same birthday. I dont remember the number but I think it is between 25-35.

I also think the chance of having a 13 month period of temps in the top third is more likely closer to 50-50 than 1 in a million.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

as always climate science gets their math wrong. why dont they ever ask statisticians for help before they make these proclaimations? oh right! because people only remember the first story, never the refutation that comes afterwards.

most people totally underestimate the odds of certain things happening. like how many people do you need to have in a room before it is likely that 2 have the same birthday. I dont remember the number but I think it is between 25-35.

I also think the chance of having a 13 month period of temps in the top third is more likely closer to 50-50 than 1 in a million.

23 people gives you a 50% probability that two will have the same birthday, it approaches certainty at 50.

 

[bobgnote]

Odds that record temps are due to that big yellow ball in the sky: 1:1

Whodathunk?

Hugh Laurie has a BRAIN, guy. Dr. Gregory House is apparently a bright physician.

So what the fuck is your sorry excuse, for complete failure, to observe and think?

The sun emits the energy, which lights and heats the Earth. But without an atmosphere, most of the energy would reflect, back into space. Without atmospheric molecules, with three or more atoms, the greenhouse effect would not intervene, to keep surface temperatures in the area of habitability.

Without CO2 getting driven way up, to 400 ppm, past the usual Pleistocene-Holocene maximum, of 280 ppm, CH4 wouldn't be out-gassing, from warming lands and waters, so we are headed past the PETM extinction, toward the ultimate killer, the P-T Extinction Event, the leading killer, of all geologic time.

Without CHAINSAWS, people couldn't fuck things up, but with fossil fuels, humans are polluting up a shit-storm, on Earth. And the sun has been relatively cool, for the last several decades. We are on a local minimum. Our current solar cycle is mild.

But that won't last, forever. When the sun does get back, to radiating, we will burn.

Borrow Mr.Fry's brain, if you would. See if his is as fried, as yours obviously is.

 

[Dr.House]

Odds that record temps are due to that big yellow ball in the sky: 1:1

Whodathunk?

Hugh Laurie has a BRAIN, guy. Dr. Gregory House is apparently a bright physician.

So what the fuck is your sorry excuse, for complete failure, to observe and think?

The sun emits the energy, which lights and heats the Earth. But without an atmosphere, most of the energy would reflect, back into space. Without atmospheric molecules, with three or more atoms, the greenhouse effect would not intervene, to keep surface temperatures in the area of habitability.

Without CO2 getting driven way up, to 400 ppm, past the usual Pleistocene-Holocene maximum, of 280 ppm, CH4 wouldn't be out-gassing, from warming lands and waters, so we are headed past the PETM extinction, toward the ultimate killer, the P-T Extinction Event, the leading killer, of all geologic time.

Without CHAINSAWS, people couldn't fuck things up, but with fossil fuels, humans are polluting up a shit-storm, on Earth. And the sun has been relatively cool, for the last several decades. We are on a local minimum. Our current solar cycle is mild.

But that won't last, forever. When the sun does get back, to radiating, we will burn.

Borrow Mr.Fry's brain, if you would. See if his is as fried, as yours obviously is.

Hey fuckstain...

Read what I posted...

If you want to pretend the sun isn't involved in recent temps, then may I suggest you stand out in the nearest desert for a few hours to prove me wrong....

Hey, look - solar activity...

Sun storms: solar activity at fiery high - CBS News

Meanwhile, over in England they are having the coldest and wettest summer in history...

Now, let us know how you make out with above suggested experiment...

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Democrats hate science....
Tree-ring study proves that climate was WARMER in Roman and Medieval times than it is in the modern industrial age | Mail Online

 

[bobgnote]

Democrats hate science....
Tree-ring study proves that climate was WARMER in Roman and Medieval times than it is in the modern industrial age | Mail Online

Look, fucktard, you asshole-fucktards keep posting this shit, when we know, already, for a fact, how the Medieval Warming, the Roman Warming, the Minoan Warming, and the Holocene Epoch prior maximum were ALL warmer, than today.

The climate has been due, to cool off, but noooo. Humans put CO2 past the usual Pleistocene-Holocene maximum, of 280 ppm, all the way to 400 ppm, so CH4 started out-gassing. Now that this has happened, we are going to get really HOT. It looks like the current solar cycle just picked up, with a lot of fresh solar storms:

Sun storms: solar activity at fiery high - CBS News

Solar flares are divided into A, B, C, M, and X classes. According to NASA, only C, M and X-class solar flares can have direct impacts on Earth. Like the Richter scale, each letter represents an exponential increase over the lower classes.

More solar flares are expected in the future, as the sun is in the midst of an active phase. The sun has weather patterns, just like Earth, that cycle every 11 years. The current cycle is called Solar Cycle 24 and is expected to peak in 2013.

----------------

The current solar cycle WAS cool. But it is due to peak, in 2013, and now, the planet will get even hotter, since it was heating up, without benefit, of solar intensity.

There's plenty of shit, for you to eat, don't worry.

 

[bobgnote]

Odds that record temps are due to that big yellow ball in the sky: 1:1

Whodathunk?

Hugh Laurie has a BRAIN, guy. Dr. Gregory House is apparently a bright physician.

So what the fuck is your sorry excuse, for complete failure, to observe and think?

The sun emits the energy, which lights and heats the Earth. But without an atmosphere, most of the energy would reflect, back into space. Without atmospheric molecules, with three or more atoms, the greenhouse effect would not intervene, to keep surface temperatures in the area of habitability.

Without CO2 getting driven way up, to 400 ppm, past the usual Pleistocene-Holocene maximum, of 280 ppm, CH4 wouldn't be out-gassing, from warming lands and waters, so we are headed past the PETM extinction, toward the ultimate killer, the P-T Extinction Event, the leading killer, of all geologic time.

Without CHAINSAWS, people couldn't fuck things up, but with fossil fuels, humans are polluting up a shit-storm, on Earth. And the sun has been relatively cool, for the last several decades. We are on a local minimum. Our current solar cycle is mild.

But that won't last, forever. When the sun does get back, to radiating, we will burn.

Borrow Mr.Fry's brain, if you would. See if his is as fried, as yours obviously is.

Hey fuckstain...

Read what I posted...

If you want to pretend the sun isn't involved in recent temps, then may I suggest you stand out in the nearest desert for a few hours to prove me wrong....

Hey, look - solar activity...

Sun storms: solar activity at fiery high - CBS News

Meanwhile, over in England they are having the coldest and wettest summer in history...

Now, let us know how you make out with above suggested experiment...

Solar cycle 24 has heated up, good for you. This will heat up the planet, no doubt.

But until the recent storms, cycle 24 was mild. Whatever the Sun does, you can go out in your car, at mid-day, roll up the windows, and see if the IR doesn't build up heat. Then take a shit in your pants and roast, asshole! Read what I wrote, shitstain!

"When the sun does get back, to radiating, we will burn."

The greenhouse effect will just make things worse, Dr.DDDose! Now that cycle 24 is on, we will likely see two years in a row, of record global temperatures, complete with radical climate change features, dependent on the jet stream behavior, such as record snow and cold, in Europe, this last Winter, with whatever is happening, in Texas or UK or wherever:

Texas drought, British heat linked to climate change - Reuters -

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Climate change increased the odds for the kind of extreme weather that prevailed in 2011, a year that saw severe drought in Texas, unusual heat in England and was one of the 15 warmest years on record, scientists reported on Tuesday.

Overall, 2011 was a year of extreme events - from historic droughts in East Africa, northern Mexico and the southern United States to an above-average cyclone season in the North Atlantic and the end of Australia's wettest two-year period ever, scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the United Kingdom's Met Office said.

In the 22nd annual "State of the Climate" report, experts also found the Arctic was warming about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, on average, with Arctic sea ice shrinking to its second-smallest recorded size.

Heat-trapping greenhouse gas concentrations - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide among others - continued to rise last year, and the global average atmospheric concentration for carbon dioxide went over 390 parts per million for the first time, an increase of 2.1 ppm in 2010.

----------------------

England flood risk to rise fourfold by 2035: Report - The Times of India

LONDON: The risk of flooding for many English homes and businesses could increase fourfold by 2035 if more action to deal with the impact of climate change is not taken, government advisers said on Wednesday.

As severe floods continue to batter parts of Britain after the wettest June since records began, around one in seven homes and businesses face some kind of flood risk, the climate advisers said.

Around 160,000 properties would be at risk by 2035 if better planning and more investment were made in flood defences, compared with 610,000 at risk if no action was taken, they said.

The cost of protecting more than half a million homes at risk of flooding will double to 1 billion pounds a year by 2035, according to estimates by the UK's Environment Agency in 2010.

The devastating floods of 2007 caused damage to homes and businesses, infrastructure and services, and resulted in lost work and school days, which cost the UK economy 3.2 billion pounds.

----------------------------

What do you think will happen, Dr.DDDose? Will England cool off and freeze? I don't think so. I think if the trend goes wet, England will get flooded, since the heat is on, and jolly olde wine is being made, given warming, since the 1980s.

Certainly, a lot of events were affected, including the recent mens' final, at Wimby. The trend will be for the UK to get wet, but also hot. The warming is happening, but the climate changes will all be radical.