Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million

Discussion in 'Environment' started by RDD_1210, Jul 10, 2012.

  1. RDD_1210
    Offline

    RDD_1210 Forms his own opinions

    Joined:
    May 13, 2010
    Messages:
    14,638
    Thanks Received:
    1,295
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +2,001
    Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

    “The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”


    Odds of record U.S. heat being a random event: 1 in 1.6 million
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  2. uscitizen
    Offline

    uscitizen Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    45,941
    Thanks Received:
    4,791
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    My Shack
    Ratings:
    +4,807
    I'm going to buy a powerball ticket!
     
  3. RDD_1210
    Offline

    RDD_1210 Forms his own opinions

    Joined:
    May 13, 2010
    Messages:
    14,638
    Thanks Received:
    1,295
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Ratings:
    +2,001
    Obviously these numbers are "biased", "faked" and "have an agenda".
     
  4. bripat9643
    Offline

    bripat9643 Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    67,809
    Thanks Received:
    8,074
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Ratings:
    +27,325
    Since NCDC doctors their data, we know the record isn't a random event. It was generated with a magic marker.
     
  5. Dr.House
    Offline

    Dr.House Lives on in syndication!

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2009
    Messages:
    14,800
    Thanks Received:
    3,482
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Princeton/Plainsboro
    Ratings:
    +3,488
    Odds that record temps are due to that big yellow ball in the sky:

    1:1

    Whodathunk?
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  6. asterism
    Offline

    asterism Congress != Progress

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2010
    Messages:
    8,592
    Thanks Received:
    906
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Location:
    Central Florida
    Ratings:
    +1,073
    Why limit the figures to mainland United States?
     
  7. whitehall
    Offline

    whitehall Gold Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2010
    Messages:
    27,769
    Thanks Received:
    4,332
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    Western Va.
    Ratings:
    +10,726
    Now a religious bigot thinks the world was created yesterday in geological terms. How far does climate "history" go? A hundred years? There are grooves in rock outcroppings in Central Park in NYC indicating that a glacier covered half of the East Coast. Those Neanderthals must have been pretty smart to cause an Ice Age.
     
  8. SFC Ollie
    Offline

    SFC Ollie Still Marching

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2009
    Messages:
    28,742
    Thanks Received:
    4,418
    Trophy Points:
    183
    Location:
    Extreme East Ohio
    Ratings:
    +4,457
    Yeah, but dinosaur farts melted the ice.........
     
  9. Quantum Windbag
    Offline

    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    58,308
    Thanks Received:
    5,014
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +5,221
    Something else Ezra Klein doesn't understand, statistical analysis. At least he admits it.

     
  10. Quantum Windbag
    Offline

    Quantum Windbag Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2010
    Messages:
    58,308
    Thanks Received:
    5,014
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +5,221
    Your attempt at sarcasm fell way short considering the fact that the numbers actually have been proven to be biased in the very article you linked to, thanks for playing though.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2012

Share This Page