Odds for Obama's 2012 Re-election Rises

[Zoomie1980]

Incumbents don't lose. Think about it. Bush Sr. lost because Perot took votes away from him. Carter was WAY ahead in October, then the Iran crisis screwed him up. Incumbents are favorites to begin with.

Incumbants are always favorites for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is better the devil you know than the devil you don't know. But there are times people screw up so badly that they can't be re-elected. I think we can all agree that the economy is the leading factor. BushI would have won again but for the economy. (and his failure to even know what a supermarket scanner was didn't help). But there are so many problems right now, that a major misstep as to any of them could be problematic.

for example, how should north korea be handled so as not to create another war and at the same time not to embolden Iran?

How to handle Iran so that the middle east doesn't go boom?

Bush Sr lost because of Ross Perot. period. Clinton won only 42% of the popular vote. Over 90% of Perot's voters would have voted Bush if Perot had not run.

 

[Indiana Oracle]

Believe the economy will be out of trouble by 12 but a shadow of what it was before this deleveraging. But taxes will be higher, inflation will likely be a problem, interest rates will be quite a bit higher, and there is a real danger the dollar will be almost worthless and that our indebtedness either will have been curtailed by lack of funding or will be on its way. So I do not see a straight line to an Obama success in 12.

Regarding the 2-party system, personally I have had it with the whole lot of them and agree the Reps are at sea right now, although that is unlikely to last.