October 19, 2000: Bush 50% Gore 40%

[The Paperboy]

Just some fodder for conversation.

CNN Link here

 

[Caligirl]

Looks like an outlier to me.

 

[AllieBaba]

It happens every election. The lib media thinks if they report the race is going to their guy, he'll win. They like to pretend the majority isn't liberal, and most of those who participate in their polls are.

 

[The Paperboy]

Looks like an outlier to me.

Huh? Your dates start 10/31 and the spread is about +5 for Bush. That would be about right if McCain begins to close the gap.

 

[rayboyusmc]

Bush cheated more better.

 

[driveby]

Bush cheated more better.

poser .....

 

[Caligirl]

Huh? Your dates start 10/31 and the spread is about +5 for Bush. That would be about right if McCain begins to close the gap.

Sorry I'll get the october data but it'll be the same.

 

[Caligirl]

Your data is an outlier. It is on this set, second from the bottom. There are a few others showing Bush up by that much, but the general average is around 5 points.

Anyway, no one is disputing that the numbers a week from now might not be different. It's just that the trend is favorable for Obama, and there's no real other way to interpret the data.


Link:

WH2000 Trend

 

[random3434]

Hey wingnutnewsboy-

Don't mess with Caligirl and her data!!!!

It's her passion, you WON'T win!









{go get 'em' girl! }

 

[rayboyusmc]

Mummy, mummy, I got something in my tummy.

 

[Caligirl]

It happens every election. The lib media thinks if they report the race is going to their guy, he'll win. They like to pretend the majority isn't liberal, and most of those who participate in their polls are.

Allie, did you read Paperboy's post? It shows Bush up by ten points, it does not show the liberal media reporting Gore ahead.

 

[Caligirl]

Hey wingnutnewsboy-

Don't mess with Caligirl and her data!!!!

It's her passion, you WON'T win!





{go get 'em' girl! }

LOL it's sad isn't it...

 

[random3434]

LOL it's sad isn't it...

No, it's GREAT!

I have no number sense like that.

I just wait for you to explain it to me LOL!


I think the polling numbers on Nov. 4th will be staggering in a landslide for Obama, but that's just my opinion. It will be a GREAT day in history!

 

[The Paperboy]

Your data is an outlier. It is on this set, second from the bottom. There are a few others showing Bush up by that much, but the general average is around 5 points.

Anyway, no one is disputing that the numbers a week from now might not be different. It's just that the trend is favorable for Obama, and there's no real other way to interpret the data.


Link:

WH2000 Trend

WIth all due respect many of the polls you posted show a similar lead for Bush as Obama has now so it pretty much shows that from this point anything is possible. Doesn't mean we'll have a repeat of 2000. But it shows it could happen. Not worth going back and forth on.

One point worth making is the polls closed quite a bit the last weekend of 2000 election when the Bush DUI story came out. So if we're going to see a repeat of 2000 I would think there'd have to be a fairly dramatic "October Surprise". If there is going to be an October surprise my bet would be on something come out of Rezko.

I also think the current poll models may be wrong and of course we don't know what if any "Bradley Effect" we'll see. Just my two cents.

 

[DavidS]

I also think the current poll models may be wrong and of course we don't know what if any "Bradley Effect" we'll see. Just my two cents.

You think EVERY poll is wrong right now? Why?

 

[The Paperboy]

You think EVERY poll is wrong right now? Why?

Not at all. I think Obama is in the lead without question. I think his lead is probably 5 points. I also think that the middle of the pack, the "non die hards" are very mercurial and it wouldn't take much for there to be a shift of 5 points within a 48 hour period.

But it if a shift occurs it will have to be something fairly dramtic at this point.

My bet is on Rezko or something out of left field like the Bush DUI.

And like I've said no one knows what if any "Bradley Effect" there will be.

Could be a landslide for Obama or a squeaker.

Defintely won't be landslide for McCain unless someone produces Obama's KGB card.

 

[DavidS]

Not at all. I think Obama is in the lead without question. I think his lead is probably 5 points. I also think that the middle of the pack, the "non die hards" are very mercurial and it wouldn't take much for there to be a shift of 5 points within a 48 hour period.

But it if a shift occurs it will have to be something fairly dramtic at this point.

My bet is on Rezko or something out of left field like the Bush DUI.

And like I've said no one knows what if any "Bradley Effect" there will be.

Could be a landslide for Obama or a squeaker.

Defintely won't be landslide for McCain unless someone produces Obama's KGB card.

Paperboy, what you're forgetting is that tens of millions of people.....

HAVE ALREADY VOTED.

The only swing states that don't have early voting are Missouri and Virginia. And honestly, if something massive happens and Obama's poll numbers crash, he can potentially still win with all of the votes already casted.

 

[jillian]

Bubbalah... from your link:

a third of the interviews were completed before the final presidential debate in St. Louis, Missouri

now what happened after the Obama/McCain debates?

Oh yeah...

Don't you get tired of distorting reality?

 

[The Paperboy]

Paperboy, what you're forgetting is that tens of millions of people.....

HAVE ALREADY VOTED.

The only swing states that don't have early voting are Missouri and Virginia. And honestly, if something massive happens and Obama's poll numbers crash, he can potentially still win with all of the votes already casted.

And Gallup says the voting is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats something that should give you some pause.

Sweetheart, don't you get tired of distorting reality (not mention magazine covers)?

 

[Toro]

WIth all due respect many of the polls you posted show a similar lead for Bush as Obama has now so it pretty much shows that from this point anything is possible. Doesn't mean we'll have a repeat of 2000. But it shows it could happen. Not worth going back and forth on.

One point worth making is the polls closed quite a bit the last weekend of 2000 election when the Bush DUI story came out. So if we're going to see a repeat of 2000 I would think there'd have to be a fairly dramatic "October Surprise". If there is going to be an October surprise my bet would be on something come out of Rezko.

I also think the current poll models may be wrong and of course we don't know what if any "Bradley Effect" we'll see. Just my two cents.

You have to look at the trend. And the trend was that for most of the last month, Bush was leading Gore.

Its similar if you look at Bush v Kerry.

The difference is that Obama has a much wider lead than Bush did in either election. I don't know if there has even been a national poll that has had McCain in the lead in October.

You are right in that anything can happen. But usually, anything does not happen.