oceans still hot

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Old Rocks, Dec 17, 2009.

  1. Old Rocks
    Online

    Old Rocks Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    46,448
    Thanks Received:
    5,409
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Portland, Ore.
    Ratings:
    +10,295
    Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

    CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE EQUATOR THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS NOW EXCEED 2 DEGREES C FROM THE DATE LINE TO ABOUT 130 W AND ARE MORE THAN 1 DEG. C ABOVE NORMAL FROM 160 E TO ABOUT 90 W. THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN RECENT WEEKS AND CURRENTLY AVERAGE 1.8 DEGREES C ABOVE NORMAL. THE AREA OF MAXIMUM SST ANOMALIES HAS BEEN EXPANDING EASTWARD DURING THE LAST MONTH AS HAVE THE POSITIVE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. EQUATORIAL OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION ANOMALIES REFLECT EL NINO CONDITIONS, WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA AND ENHANCED CONVECTION NEAR THE DATE LINE. THE SUBSURFACE HEAT CONTENT IS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 200 METERS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN WITH WATER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING +6 CELSIUS AT THERMOCLINE DEPTH NEAR 105W. HISTORICALLY, POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE UPPER OCEAN PRECEDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO EVENTS. THUS TROPICAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
     
  2. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TDqvD34hEA[/ame]
     
  3. concept
    Offline

    concept Evil Mongering

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2009
    Messages:
    2,040
    Thanks Received:
    340
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    West Mi
    Ratings:
    +340
    Yeah that must be the reason that iceberg has been floating around Australia for 10+ years... :lol:
     
  4. concept
    Offline

    concept Evil Mongering

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2009
    Messages:
    2,040
    Thanks Received:
    340
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    West Mi
    Ratings:
    +340
    Wow ALL CAPS too. Must be true then!! :lol:
     
  5. Sinatra
    Offline

    Sinatra Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2009
    Messages:
    8,013
    Thanks Received:
    1,005
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +1,005
    ALL CAPS now for Old Rocks???

    Almost feel sorry for the guy.

    Almost.

    Denial.
    Anger.
    Acceptance.

    He'll get there...
     
  6. concept
    Offline

    concept Evil Mongering

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2009
    Messages:
    2,040
    Thanks Received:
    340
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    West Mi
    Ratings:
    +340
    Too bad the oceans are cooling too.

    Poor old guy. :lol:
     
  7. Old Rocks
    Online

    Old Rocks Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    46,448
    Thanks Received:
    5,409
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Portland, Ore.
    Ratings:
    +10,295
    From the American Meteorlogical Society. Of coures, you silly jerkoffs know more than the scientists trained in this field, correct?

    AMS Online Journals - Anthropogenic Warming of the Oceans: Observations and Model Results

    ABSTRACT
    Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr, with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean–atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM’s heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m−2 by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases by 3.7 W m−2, which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m−2. Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m−2. The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components, changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time, but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, by the 1980s.
     

Share This Page