OBL Video Points Out Al Queda Problems

[Annie]

Great analysis:

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=24194

Al-Qaeda faces an ideological crisis

By Amr Hamzawy
Commentary by
Saturday, May 06, 2006

Three remarkable aspects of Osama bin Laden's latest videotape suggested that its strident tone masked an ideological crisis for Al-Qaeda. First, in his speech, broadcast on the Arab satellite network Al-Jazeera on April 24, bin Laden betrayed a need to justify his organization's terrorist mission not just to extremists, but to broader Muslim publics. In the tape, the Al-Qaeda leader spoke extensively of what he labeled the "Western and Zionist Crusade" against the Muslim community of believers, or umma. He displayed a distorted reading of events as different as the crisis in Darfur, the situation in Iraq and the Danish cartoon controversy, and attributed these events to a Western hatred of Islam. He called on Muslims to accept this as the "structuring reality" of their contemporary world. Only continuous jihad, he said, could help the umma defeat the "Crusaders."

Bin Laden's panorama of recent events and his prescription of jihad were not addressed to members or supporters of militant Islamist groups, but rather to the wider Arab and Muslim publics, in a desperate attempt to remind them of Al-Qaeda's "just" cause. It is not lost on bin Laden that a clear majority of Arabs has grown less sympathetic to his group's terrorist agenda in the last few years.

The second remarkable aspect of bin Laden's videotape was his addressing, albeit by assailing them, Arab liberals. In previous videotapes, he accused pro-Western Arab governments and official religious institutions of seducing their populations away from the path of jihad. But this time he blamed Arab liberal intellectuals and writers for betraying the true spirit of Islam. For bin Laden, the liberals disseminate "blasphemous ideas" of democracy, human rights, and moderation, and in so doing diminish the degree of popular support for Al-Qaeda's jihad. The Al-Qaeda leader's decision to open a front against Arab liberals may threaten them, but it is also a testimony to their moral and political influence in the Arab world of today.

Since 2001, Arab liberals have become more assertive in pushing for gradual democratic reform and respect for human rights as the only viable strategies to master the severe crises of Arab societies. Over the past years, their message has caught the attention of growing segments of Arab populations. There appears to be an emerging public consensus that democracy is the only viable way ahead. Bin Laden is right in fearing this development, since it undermines the logic of his terrorist agenda. Indeed, liberals in Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, and even Saudi Arabia have proven as effective in combating terrorism as various "hard" security measures. Al-Qaeda is on the defensive not only because of the geographical but also the political isolation of its leaders: Its radical, militant blueprints have lost a great deal of their appeal as Arabs have had a change of heart.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb

Finally, bin Laden tried to seize on Hamas' victory in the Palestinian elections. His Egyptian deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, had taken the exact opposite position. While Zawahiri claimed that Hamas' participation in elections would only serve as an act of submission to Western conspiracies by detracting Palestinians from jihad, bin Laden endorsed the Hamas government and called on Muslims to support it. However, it would be misleading to interpret this new position as an attempt to give sustenance to Hamas. Rather, it was much more a bid to ride the movement's coattails.

Taking note of the changing mood of the Arab public, bin Laden sought to return Al-Qaeda to its roots. The group was founded thanks to the support of sister militant movements. Previously, bin Laden's cadres emerged from the once-powerful Egyptian Jihad and Al-Jamaa al-Islamiyya. Today, Hamas is the front-runner among militant Islamist movements. But even at this level, bin Laden is destined to earn only minimal success, if any. A day after Al-Jazeera broadcast his videotape, Hamas' spokesman in Gaza, Sami Abu Zahri, told reporters that bin Laden's comments on Hamas reflected his own views and that Hamas was interested in good relations with the West.

Arab politics have transcended the legacy of Al-Qaeda. Today gradualism, participation, and democratic reform, rather than radical violence and jihad, set the agenda. Although it's uncertain whether Arab liberals will see their dream realized, Al-Qaeda's project no longer represents an alternative.

 

[Diuretic]

And I sincerely hope it's a correct analysis. I would like to think that bin Laden's fundamentalist view of Islam is being overrun by a more enlightened view, one that looks to improving the temporal lot of the average person. Moderate and liberal voices in Islam need to be supported in their opposition to the fundamentalist Islamists of bin Laden's ilk.

 

[Gunny]

And I sincerely hope it's a correct analysis. I would like to think that bin Laden's fundamentalist view of Islam is being overrun by a more enlightened view, one that looks to improving the temporal lot of the average person. Moderate and liberal voices in Islam need to be supported in their opposition to the fundamentalist Islamists of bin Laden's ilk.

Islamists of bin Laden's ilk will ALWAYS come out on top when fighting intellectuals and liberals simply because the former places no bounds on the use of force while the latter in most cases think they can win with thought and word.

 

[Diuretic]

Morocco is a good example of where a liberal regime in an Islamic country is defeating radical Islamists. The King of Morocco has stopped the Islamists in their tracks by denying them the chance to spread the doctrine of hate. The King is a moderate who has ensured progressive social policies has stopped the Islamists in their tracks. So it can be done.

 

[Annie]

Morocco is a good example of where a liberal regime in an Islamic country is defeating radical Islamists. The King of Morocco has stopped the Islamists in their tracks by denying them the chance to spread the doctrine of hate. The King is a moderate who has ensured progressive social policies has stopped the Islamists in their tracks. So it can be done.

They try, but the religion gets ahead of them, time and time again. http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/05/07/a_clear_message_on_iraq/

blackmail.

There are others, but I'm going out and haven't time to read throught them all.

 

[Gunny]

Morocco is a good example of where a liberal regime in an Islamic country is defeating radical Islamists. The King of Morocco has stopped the Islamists in their tracks by denying them the chance to spread the doctrine of hate. The King is a moderate who has ensured progressive social policies has stopped the Islamists in their tracks. So it can be done.

And he is enforcing this law how? (Emphasis on enforcing)

 

[Diuretic]

I didn't mention the King enforcing a particular law. He's not relying on strong-arm tactics which would prove to be self-defeating in the end. He has used social policy to ensure that the conditions which foment radical Islam are not present. Prevention is always better than cure.

 

[Diuretic]

They try, but the religion gets ahead of them, time and time again. http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/05/07/a_clear_message_on_iraq/

blackmail.

There are others, but I'm going out and haven't time to read throught them all.

Blackmail? How? instead of denigrating his efforts there should instead be support for what he's doing. That they reckon that Iraq is a foreign policy disaster is neither her not there, it is, but it has to be resolved. This is about more than Iraq though and the King is making progress in halting the spread of radical Islam.

 

[Gunny]

I didn't mention the King enforcing a particular law. He's not relying on strong-arm tactics which would prove to be self-defeating in the end. He has used social policy to ensure that the conditions which foment radical Islam are not present. Prevention is always better than cure.

So the government of Iraq using social policies is going to stop the Sunni, Shia, Ba'ath, and/or Kurds, not to mention those pouring in from Syrai and Iran from fomenting hate and discontent?

I don't think so, Tim.