Obama's Checklist? Predictions?

[PoliticalChic]

I've identified the following Deadly Dozen as motivators for many of those who voted against Obama. How many will be part of his agenda?

1. Universal Health Care
2. Global Warming Taxes, Cap and Trade
3. Raising a Multitude of Taxes
4. Left Wing Supreme Court Justices
5. Restrict Right Wing Radio, Fairness Doctrine
6. Restrict Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas
7. Change Policy in the Middle East and Abandon Israel
8. Impose Card Check to Prevent Secret Ballot in Union Elections
9. Myriad of Hearings Aimed at Former Bush Officials
10. Reparations in Some Form
11. Ban or Restrict Guns
12. Form a "Civilian National Security Force that's just as powerful, just as well-funded" as the military

 

[DiamondDave]

Personally I have not seen much about him trying to ban or restrict guns

 

[Annie]

Personally I have not seen much about him trying to ban or restrict guns

So far, then again with the last SCOTUS ruling, he may just hold off on that. The others? Well it depends upon what he really wants. None of us know. Not on the right or left.

From news reports my glimmers:

Gitmo
avoiding confrontations with Russia (if so, he handled very badly)
stem cell research

That's it.

 

[glockmail]

Today's paper reported orgasmically that Obama's first executive orders will be to fund fetal stem cell research and then ban oil and gas drilling.

Both appease his far left base and are technologically without merit. The drilling thing will increase fuel costs, weaken the US and embolden our enemies. So far he's right on track to Carter II.

 

[Turboswede]

I've identified the following Deadly Dozen as motivators for many of those who voted against Obama. How many will be part of his agenda?

Universal Health Care
Will not happen in his 1st term, may change the tax code to allow individuals to deduct insurance premiums and may remove the limit on AGI for taking healthcare deductions on federal taxes. Could more for curtailing ERISA and allowing states more authority to regulate insurance backed employee health plans within the states (i.e. limit federal preemption).

2nd term may develop some form of voluntary federal insurance plan which allows employers the option of going with private insurers or buying into a federal insurance plan. Federal plan could then help in regulating insurance premiums by raising or lowering the federal insurance premium. Kind of ho the Fed regulates interest rates by adjusting the overnight lending rate.

We will not see a massive mandatory social insurance plan because this is a big vote loser, subsidized health insurance is the goal, but it’s not going to be implimented in a way that will drive private insurers out of business.

If GM or Ford declare cpt. 11 and can renegotiate union contracts, I predict the federal insurance will pick up the worker & retiree medical because I doubt if anyone else in the market will.

Global Warming Taxes, Cap and Trade
Maybe a carbon emissions tax in his 2nd term, expect to see lots of talk and very little action as gas prices continue to tumble.

Raising a Multitude of Taxes
Buzzword from the Obama financial team is “Broadening the Base” so expect to see substantial changes in the tax code regarding corporate deductions for executive compensation and net operating loss carry forwards. Corporate rate may go as high as 39% (under Regan it was 50%).

The Estate tax will be renewed (it is set to expire in 2009) at current levels.

Expect the SSI wage base to increase to $250,000 for 2009.

The federal itemized deduction phase-out will return to its 2004 level of 6%.

The IRS audit focus will shift from EITC recipients to individuals paying the Alternate Minimum Tax in order to capture more revenue from non compliance.

Capital gains treatment for qualified dividends will be eliminated and the top marginal rate may go as high as 39%.

Left Wing Supreme Court Justices
Probably not a significant issue as the conservatives on the bench are (relatively) young and vital. Any conservative retirements will probably wait until 2010 and see how the congressional elections pan out. The only one I could realistically see leaving is Stevens and he is considered (by most conservatives) as a liberal already.

Restrict Right Wing Radio, Fairness Doctrine
As a democrat and an Obama voter, I would have a very hard time on this issue. I doubt Obama will make any move here as it would alienate a large portion of his base (think ACLU members)

Restrict Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas
He will do this in his 1st term and become more aggressive as oil prices fall. Falling oil prices mean less backing for drilling by oil companies and more support from the American public.

Change Policy in the Middle East and Abandon Israel
Policy will change in Iraq, there is no way he will abandon Israel given the support (and funding) provided by various Jewish groups to his campaign.

Impose Card Check to Prevent Secret Ballot in Union Elections
He may do this, although if GM or Ford go into cpt 11 they can renegotiate collectively bargained agreements so Organized Labor and the UAW may not have a pot to piss in by 2012 either way.

Myriad of Hearings Aimed at Former Bush Officials
Doubt it but it is possible, it depends on how easy it is to prove the links to possible illegal actions and how much the democratic base is out for blood. Personally I think it’s a waste of time given the challenges America is currently facing. This may become a bigger focus in Obama’s 2nd term if the economy and the war settle down.

Reparations in Some Form
Doubt it, this would cause an even deeper rift in race relations. I would not be surprised if an Obama administration rolls back existing affirmative action policies.

Ban or Restrict Guns
Not unless there is another school shooting or other incident that raises popular support for a restriction on specific firearms.

Form a "Civilian National Security Force that's just as powerful, just as well-funded" as the military
I hope not, where the hell are we going to find another $500,000,000,000 to fund a program the size of the military. I think in the end this is just going to boil down to a reorganization of the Department for Homeland Security and keep its $150,000,000,000 budget but have federal employees rather than independent contractors performing services for the TSA, etc.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Very thoughtful answer.

 

[editec]

Universal Health Care

I sincerely hope not until they do something about capping costs, first

Global Warming Taxes, Cap and Trade

Likely, but compromised into meaninglessness

Raising a Multitude of Taxes

Likely

Left Wing Supreme Court Justices

Left wing? Moderate? Radical? All in the eyes of the beholder

Restrict Right Wing Radio, Fairness Doctrine

Don't think that was a plank of his

Restrict Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas

I don't think that was one of his planks, either

Change Policy in the Middle East and Abandon Israel

Not a chance, not part of his platform

Impose Card Check to Prevent Secret Ballot in Union Elections

Still trying to figure this issue out

Myriad of Hearings Aimed at Former Bush Officials

One can hope they go after corruption. I'm nominating Senator Susan Collins (R) of Maine to head that commission.


Reparations in Some Form

Total blather to suggest he ever considered such a goofy idea.

Ban or Restrict Guns

Not part of his agenda, either.

Form a "Civilian National Security Force that's just as powerful, just as well-funded" as the military

As well funded? Not gonna happen.

He'll pump up VISTA and AMERICORPS budgets perhaps.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Universal Health Care

Restrict Drilling for Oil and Natural Gas

I don't think that was one of his planks, either

He said he would "consider" increased drilling off the continental shelf. This sounds like a "no" to me.

Impose Card Check to Prevent Secret Ballot in Union Elections

Still trying to figure this issue out

Aimed directly at Walmart, it would mean union intimidation of workers. How much does he feel he owes the unions?

Reparations in Some Form

Total blather to suggest he ever considered such a goofy idea.

Senator Barack Obama told a meeting with members of UNITY '08, the U.S. should eview how it can makeamends for "offenses" committed during its history. Does this sound like reparations to you?

Obama suggests reparations to blacks, Native Americans

Ban or Restrict Guns

Not part of his agenda, either.

He originally supported Washinton D.C.'s total ban of guns until the Supreme Court decision, whereupon, he changed his position.

Form a "Civilian National Security Force that's just as powerful, just as well-funded" as the military

As well funded? Not gonna happen.

The real question is not the funding, but what would be the point of a civilian army patroling our streets? And what about Posse Comitatus Act?


It would be interesting how this all falls out.

 

[random3434]

Very thoughtful answer.

I agree, nice job answering PoliticalChic's questions Turboswede!



This is America, innocent until proven guilty, right?

 

[Annie]

This is one post that gives me hope that some on the left are thinking. Good job!

Specific on what an Obama supporter thinks. I truly hope Obama comes close.

 

[random3434]

This is one post that gives me hope that some on the left are thinking. Good job!

Specific on what an Obama supporter thinks. I truly hope Obama comes close.

Now let's get NCLB fixed!

 

[Annie]

Now let's get NCLB fixed!

I'm for trashing it on the fed'l level, the idea is good for states. IMHO. Get rid of 'all children' ignoring the other mandates of providing education for all, regardless of ability. If a child has been tested or testing deferred because of cause, let them be excluded from results.

 

[WillowTree]

Number one will be Expansion of SCHIP!

 

[random3434]

I'm for trashing it on the fed'l level, the idea is good for states. IMHO. Get rid of 'all children' ignoring the other mandates of providing education for all, regardless of ability. If a child has been tested or testing deferred because of cause, let them be excluded from results.

I agree, it's pointless to test my students with IQ's of 68 and expect them to pass the same Standardized Test as their peers with IQ's over 100.....and then be penalized if they don't pass.

 

[Annie]

I agree, it's pointless to test my students with IQ's of 68 and expect them to pass the same Standardized Test as their peers with IQ's over 100.....and then be penalized if they don't pass.

*high five*

 

[PoliticalChic]

I agree, it's pointless to test my students with IQ's of 68 and expect them to pass the same Standardized Test as their peers with IQ's over 100.....and then be penalized if they don't pass.

As a general response, efforts such as NCLB are well directed. The rule should be that data informs policy. We must know where we are before we can decide how to get where we wish to go.

Next, let's remember that the schools are for the children, not the teachers. Too many well-intentioned people believe that J.J. Rousseau is still in full effect.

To the point, children with IQ of 68 are not compared to those of normal intelligence, and then the results are blamed on the teacher. Further, not passing is not a penalty if the child cannot pass, and should be given more instuction. The teacher is not under the spotlight unless their students fail year after year -- and that is as it should be.

 

[Turboswede]

As a general response, efforts such as NCLB are well directed. The rule should be that data informs policy. We must know where we are before we can decide how to get where we wish to go.

Next, let's remember that the schools are for the children, not the teachers. Too many well-intentioned people believe that J.J. Rousseau is still in full effect.

To the point, children with IQ of 68 are not compared to those of normal intelligence, and then the results are blamed on the teacher. Further, not passing is not a penalty if the child cannot pass, and should be given more instuction. The teacher is not under the spotlight unless their students fail year after year -- and that is as it should be.

I don’t mean to hijack your post, but since you brought it up, how can we implement some standard that kids need to meet in order to graduate and still make sure the system is fair?

 

[Annie]

As a general response, efforts such as NCLB are well directed. The rule should be that data informs policy. We must know where we are before we can decide how to get where we wish to go.

Next, let's remember that the schools are for the children, not the teachers. Too many well-intentioned people believe that J.J. Rousseau is still in full effect.

To the point, children with IQ of 68 are not compared to those of normal intelligence, and then the results are blamed on the teacher. Further, not passing is not a penalty if the child cannot pass, and should be given more instuction. The teacher is not under the spotlight unless their students fail year after year -- and that is as it should be.

Well directed or well meaning? I think that was the point of EZ to myself. Well meaning brought many bad things to our country and will again. Some are in the offing, some to come shortly.

 

[random3434]

As a general response, efforts such as NCLB are well directed. The rule should be that data informs policy. We must know where we are before we can decide how to get where we wish to go.

Next, let's remember that the schools are for the children, not the teachers. Too many well-intentioned people believe that J.J. Rousseau is still in full effect.

To the point, children with IQ of 68 are not compared to those of normal intelligence, and then the results are blamed on the teacher. Further, not passing is not a penalty if the child cannot pass, and should be given more instuction. The teacher is not under the spotlight unless their students fail year after year -- and that is as it should be.

I wish it were that simple PC, but it's not. I teach special needs students, and they must take the State Standarized Test like the general ed kids. Like I said, I have kids with IQ's ranging from 58 to 88. (I teach Mildly Mentally Handicapped, Learning Disabled Students, and students with Autism)

If those students fail, WE, the teachers and the school are responsible and put on probation. I teach in a school where all the kids have free lunch and breakfast, with over 700 kids. The general ed. kids do well on the tests, as a matter of fact our school is one of the top for test scores in that categoy. (For the inner city schools) We do believe ALL children can learn. But,,,,when a child has a handicap, and aren't on grade level, it's a struggle for them to pass a test geared toward their gen. ed. peers.


And most every teacher I work with believe the schools are for the STUDENT, we have very dedicated, caring teachers on our staff. They wouldn't drive over 50 miles round trip from their suburban homes to teach in the inner city if they didn't care. A lot have been there over 25 years~

 

[Annie]

I wish it were that simple PC, but it's not. I teach special needs students, and they must take the State Standarized Test like the general ed kids. Like I said, I have kids with IQ's ranging from 58 to 88. (I teach Mildly Mentally Handicapped, Learning Disabled Students, and students with Autism)

If those students fail, WE, the teachers and the school are responsible and put on probation. I teach in a school where all the kids have free lunch and breakfast, with over 700 kids. The general ed. kids do well on the tests, as a matter of fact our school is one of the top for test scores in that categoy. (For the inner city schools) We do believe ALL children can learn. But,,,,when a child has a handicap, and aren't on grade level, it's a struggle for them to pass a test geared toward their gen. ed. peers.


And most every teacher I work with believe the schools are for the STUDENT, we have very dedicated, caring teachers on our staff. They wouldn't drive over 50 miles round trip from their suburban homes to teach in the inner city if they didn't care. A lot have been there over 25 years~

Well said. Truth is, I may be blunter, I'm not in a public school. The mandates are insane. The kids Echo is teaching, no matter how well, will NOT perform to grade level, no matter how hard they try. Some normal kids at grade will likely fall short. Enough of those across grades, the school is put on the watch list.

In an area like mine, not many in 'out of class special ed', (meaning the parents choose to place them elsewhere). yet there are enough ESL students proportionately, (meaning so few), that their results may land the school on probation. Guess the students from regular classes referred to ESL. then to alternative schooling? If not for NCLB the kids would be staying in placement and being taught. Now they are shuffled, all in the name of testing.