Obama Wins Guam by Only 7 Votes

[Jon]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24441932/

Sadly enough, this actually shows the momentum Obama has lost. First of all, Guam votes by caucus, and Obama has been killing in the caucuses. Secondly, Guam is very much the same demographic as Hawaii, Obama's native land.

If he can't even win that by a bigger margin, he's in for tough roads ahead.

 

[Ravi]

I've never understood this...if they can't vote in the election, why do they have a say in the primary?

 

[Dogger]

The most important factor is that neither candidate campaigned there. Former First Lady Clinton has universal name recognition. That is a serious structural advantage that Obama must overcome in each state.

Part of Obama's advantage in caucus states is that the process filters out more from Clinton's base (such as working women), and that is unfair. But another advantage he derives is that the smaller voting population and more personal style of caucus campaigning has allowed him to overcome Clinton's name recognition and win. Since they didn't campaign in Guam, you can't really count that as lost momentum.

In each primary state, Clinton started with the same advantage. Tracking polls showed that Obama narrowed her lead in each primary state and in a few instances overcame it and won. That momentum has not been lost yet, although Tuesday's results may force me to revise that conclusion.

 

[Jon]

Dogger, are you kidding? A year ago, you could play the name recognition card. Now, it doesn't even apply. Obama's popularity has reached the world, not just the US. EVERYONE knows this guy's name, unfortunately, they know nothing about him. In fact, Clinton's recognizable name hurts her more than it helps her.

 

[Swamp Fox]

The most important factor is that neither candidate campaigned there. Former First Lady Clinton has universal name recognition. That is a serious structural advantage that Obama must overcome in each state.

Part of Obama's advantage in caucus states is that the process filters out more from Clinton's base (such as working women), and that is unfair. But another advantage he derives is that the smaller voting population and more personal style of caucus campaigning has allowed him to overcome Clinton's name recognition and win. Since they didn't campaign in Guam, you can't really count that as lost momentum.

In each primary state, Clinton started with the same advantage. Tracking polls showed that Obama narrowed her lead in each primary state and in a few instances overcame it and won. That momentum has not been lost yet, although Tuesday's results may force me to revise that conclusion.

Universal name recognition? Is that a fancy way of saying everyone knows what a bitch she is?