Obama Wins Guam by Only 7 Votes

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, May 3, 2008.

  1. Jon
    Offline

    Jon The CPA

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2008
    Messages:
    8,101
    Thanks Received:
    1,276
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Fayetteville, AR
    Ratings:
    +1,281
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24441932/

    Sadly enough, this actually shows the momentum Obama has lost. First of all, Guam votes by caucus, and Obama has been killing in the caucuses. Secondly, Guam is very much the same demographic as Hawaii, Obama's native land.

    If he can't even win that by a bigger margin, he's in for tough roads ahead.
     
  2. Ravi
    Offline

    Ravi Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2008
    Messages:
    81,328
    Thanks Received:
    12,693
    Trophy Points:
    2,205
    Location:
    Hating Hatters
    Ratings:
    +29,769
    I've never understood this...if they can't vote in the election, why do they have a say in the primary?
     
  3. Dogger
    Offline

    Dogger Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2008
    Messages:
    979
    Thanks Received:
    58
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Location:
    Dixie
    Ratings:
    +58
    The most important factor is that neither candidate campaigned there. Former First Lady Clinton has universal name recognition. That is a serious structural advantage that Obama must overcome in each state.

    Part of Obama's advantage in caucus states is that the process filters out more from Clinton's base (such as working women), and that is unfair. But another advantage he derives is that the smaller voting population and more personal style of caucus campaigning has allowed him to overcome Clinton's name recognition and win. Since they didn't campaign in Guam, you can't really count that as lost momentum.

    In each primary state, Clinton started with the same advantage. Tracking polls showed that Obama narrowed her lead in each primary state and in a few instances overcame it and won. That momentum has not been lost yet, although Tuesday's results may force me to revise that conclusion.
     
  4. Jon
    Offline

    Jon The CPA

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2008
    Messages:
    8,101
    Thanks Received:
    1,276
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Fayetteville, AR
    Ratings:
    +1,281
    Dogger, are you kidding? A year ago, you could play the name recognition card. Now, it doesn't even apply. Obama's popularity has reached the world, not just the US. EVERYONE knows this guy's name, unfortunately, they know nothing about him. In fact, Clinton's recognizable name hurts her more than it helps her.
     
  5. Swamp Fox
    Offline

    Swamp Fox Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2008
    Messages:
    807
    Thanks Received:
    59
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Ratings:
    +59
    Universal name recognition? Is that a fancy way of saying everyone knows what a bitch she is?
     

Share This Page