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IS Barack Obama approaching the end of his masterly run?
Starting with his win in the Iowa caucuses in January 2008, he has been, if not the one we've been waiting for, the one best suited to tap the wellsprings of public sentiment and capitalize on political circumstances for his own and his party's benefit.
During his golden year and a half, Obama caught a wave of change that propelled him into the White House, a wave that only grew stronger when he took office amid an economic crisis. When challenged, Obama has resorted to his rhetorical prowess to defuse controversies (the Rev. Wright), champion embattled policies (the stimulus) and even aspire to end long-standing civilizational animosities (the Muslim world's hostility to America).
The man and his words met the moment. Obama has been a phenomenon as much as a politician. Less JFK, more the Beatles. Less "Almanac of American Politics," more the Harry Potter series. At least until now.
But the president appears to have arrived at an inflection point -- a level spot from which he could continue rising, or begin to fall.
Several questions have always attended his vertiginous rise: What if the wave of change recedes or shifts direction? What if his finely spun words collide too obviously with reality? What, in short, if the phenomenon ends?
Obama's extreme deficit spending and auto bailouts have for the first time made him responsible for policies people want to change. That's a novel position for him after running so long against all that people disliked about the Bush years.
"Change" might be starting to shift to the other foot. The president's job-approval number remains high, but his ratings have dipped on the economy and his standing has slid among independents.
If the public turns on Obama, it won't be out of animus to him personally. People will always think him smart and charismatic -- for the simple reason that he is. Nor are they ever likely to conclude that's he's a radical or cynic. His affect is too reasonable for the first and too earnest for the second.
No, the danger is that the public will conclude that he's "a nice young man" -- talented and well-meaning, but ineffectual and a little naive.
The fight over health care will be telling. Once again, people are being asked to believe that a trillion dollars in new spending is fiscally prudent. Once again, they're being asked to believe that the government can manage an enormous, complex enterprise -- even more so than the auto companies. Once again, they're being asked by their audaciously ambitious, supremely self-confident president to suspend their disbelief.
If the public doesn't go along this time, the Obama phenomenon will have experienced the end of its heroic period.
