Obama is Reasonably Clear Favorite Entering the Stretch Run

[Nova78]

receive some kind of bounce


Yea ,bounce his ass down the street....

 

[Amazed]

Bama is only up by .07 in Ohio....don't get too excited kidlets.

 

[Amazed]

Oh yes...and as of right now his "bounce" 1.7...but interestingly NOT in the critical states.

 

[Nova78]

I point out to him that no president from either party since FDR’s second campaign in 1936 has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate even approaching the numbers we are seeing today. I tell him that any incumbent president who cannot get his poll numbers above 50 percent cannot and will not win.

Now comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, working at CU’s Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.

Since 1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996). Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.

So what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).

 

[Amazed]

Yup but thats why we play the games....because one never really knows.

 

[Katzndogz]

Democrats had a campaign against Reagan too. He was the affable idiot. The befuddled old man that no one would take seriously. He was disliked among moderate republicans. At least that's why democrats said, very loudly and very often. Because democrats lie so much, and the media repeats those lies as if they were the truth, it's almost impossible to get underneath the mountain of untruths to whatever kernel of truth there is.

 

[Chris]

Obama is Reagan, not Carter.

 

[The Rabbi]

Obama is Reagan, not Carter.

Wrong.
Obama is Lincoln. And FDR. Just ask him.

 

[Chris]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, three months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

 

[Stephanie]

Obama is Reagan, not Carter.

but you on the left HATED Reagan
man oh man is that a good one, Obama is now Reagan

 

[Chris]

Obama is Reagan, not Carter.

Wrong.
Obama is Lincoln. And FDR. Just ask him.

Obama is Lincoln.

First he freed the gays, and then he freed the children of immigrants.

And Obama is FDR.

He saved us from another Republican caused Great Depression.

 

[The Rabbi]

No incumbent president dating to 1956 has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to his re-election contest.

And none has won when the rate rose.

Unemployment was 9.8 percent in November 2010.

Last month, three months before Election Day, the rate was 8.1 percent.

Actually no president has won with UE above 8%. Obama's UE rate has been above 8% every month of his term.

 

[Stephanie]

Obama is such a fraud, he's been every other President, BUT Obama

 

[The Rabbi]

Obama is Reagan, not Carter.

Wrong.
Obama is Lincoln. And FDR. Just ask him.

Obama is Lincoln.

First he freed the gays, and then he freed the children of immigrants.

And Obama is FDR.

He saved us from another Republican caused Great Depression.

Obama is Lincoln. He trashed the Constitution and waged war on the states.
Obama is FDR. He trashed the federal budget and prolonged a recession into a Depression.

 

[Katzndogz]

Four points immediately following a convention is not reasonably clear. Especially in view of the fact that so few people even bothered to watch the convention coverage.

 

[Chris]

Obama wins New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.

He doesn't need Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina.

Game over.

 

[Chris]

Four points immediately following a convention is not reasonably clear. Especially in view of the fact that so few people even bothered to watch the convention coverage.

35 million watched.

5 million more than watched the Republican snooze fest.

 

[Katzndogz]

Four points immediately following a convention is not reasonably clear. Especially in view of the fact that so few people even bothered to watch the convention coverage.

35 million watched.

5 million more than watched the Republican snooze fest.

That might be because republicans will watch the democratic convention to see what kind of lies the dems come up with, but democrats won't watch the republican convention. The truth makes them cringe.

 

[Greenbeard]

Obama wins New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa.

He doesn't need Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina.

Game over.

Obama will take Ohio.

 

[Katzndogz]

Ohio has a lot of coal miners. The coal miner union isn't even supporting obama. He's closed too many mines.