Obama is Reasonably Clear Favorite Entering the Stretch Run

[courseofhistory]

Giving Romney some states he isn't likely to win and that Obama is ahead in and giving Obama some states he's already ahead in, the map turns out like this.

You can do one yourself here.

You can see the Five Thirty Eight Forecast at the link below.

Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position

By NATE SILVER

On Friday, we began to see reasonably clear signs that President Obama would receive some kind of bounce in the polls from the Democratic convention.

Mr. Obama had another strong day in the polls on Saturday, making further gains in each of four national tracking polls. The question now is not whether Mr. Obama will get a bounce in the polls, but how substantial it will be.

Some of the data, in fact, suggests that the conventions may have changed the composition of the race, making Mr. Obama a reasonably clear favorite as we enter the stretch run of the campaign.

 

[Listening]

It's all about the people who won't tell you how they will vote.

Nobody is going to slow down.

It's a toss up.

 

[Greenbeard]

You can see the Five Thirty Eight Forecast at the link below.

Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position

Holy shit.

 

[courseofhistory]

You can see the Five Thirty Eight Forecast at the link below.

Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position

Holy shit.

Pretty impressive!

 

[ginscpy]

So was Carter over Reagan at the same time in 1980 after the conventions.............................................

 

[Greenbeard]

So was Carter over Reagan at the same time in 1980 after the conventions.............................................

From the article:

Conservatives sometimes cite Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 as a favorable precedent for Mr. Romney, because the polls showed him in a tight race with Jimmy Carter in October and early November, 1980. Nevertheless, Mr. Reagan had shown much clearer signs of upside potential earlier in the race — most conspicuously, in leading Mr. Carter by nearly 30 points after the Republican convention in Detroit.

Because of demographic changes, the Republican base is probably just a bit too narrow to win the election for Mr. Romney on its own, even with a strong Republican turnout.

 

[ginscpy]

You can throw out all of that demographic stuff.

People vote on their gut instints who is the better candidate.

 

[The Rabbi]

Indiana is not going for Obama. They did so by a slim margin last time. This time they have a strong GOP governor.
That's the map right there. But it wont be that close. PA will go for Romney as well. so will OH, so will MI.
The economy is getting worse, not better.
The Democrats are sorry they aren't running Bill Clinton instead.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Liberal hacks are talking big b/c they want to discourage non-Obama supporters to not rock the vote. Well the Romney bus is rockin' bitches. Ya'll heard us honking and ya'll can't stop this bus bitches.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

So was Carter over Reagan at the same time in 1980 after the conventions.............................................

From the article:

Conservatives sometimes cite Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 as a favorable precedent for Mr. Romney, because the polls showed him in a tight race with Jimmy Carter in October and early November, 1980. Nevertheless, Mr. Reagan had shown much clearer signs of upside potential earlier in the race — most conspicuously, in leading Mr. Carter by nearly 30 points after the Republican convention in Detroit.

Because of demographic changes, the Republican base is probably just a bit too narrow to win the election for Mr. Romney on its own, even with a strong Republican turnout.

Correct, 1980 is a meaningless comparison.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Ohio and Florida dems. Writing is on the wall. Obama has to win one of those two states to win this election and he probably won't.

And if Romney wins a Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania or Michigan then it becomes almost impossible for Obama. It's sort of ironic that the media preached that Romney had to win "virtually all of the swing states." - Just another lie designed to disenfranchise real hope.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

So was Carter over Reagan at the same time in 1980 after the conventions.............................................

From the article:

Conservatives sometimes cite Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 as a favorable precedent for Mr. Romney, because the polls showed him in a tight race with Jimmy Carter in October and early November, 1980. Nevertheless, Mr. Reagan had shown much clearer signs of upside potential earlier in the race — most conspicuously, in leading Mr. Carter by nearly 30 points after the Republican convention in Detroit.

Because of demographic changes, the Republican base is probably just a bit too narrow to win the election for Mr. Romney on its own, even with a strong Republican turnout.

Correct, 1980 is a meaningless comparison.

You'd love to think that. Real Americans learn from history.

 

[Chris]

Karl Rove's superpac just pulled their ads from Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

To quote Joseph Conrad.........Mistah Romney, he dead.

 

[Saigon]

I wonder how Romney will debate foreign policy with Obama?

I know foreign policy might not be the #1 issue for many voters, but clearly the gulf between the 2 candidates is vast in this area.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I wonder how Romney will debate foreign policy with Obama?

I know foreign policy might not be the #1 issue for many voters, but clearly the gulf between the 2 candidates is vast in this area.

Yea, Romney never helped to prop up Islamo Facists. He's never left Israel high and dry. He's certainly ready to take leadership on Iran. He's certainly never pussy footed around when it came to Russia and China. He isn't wanting to gut our military and disarm our nuclear capabilities. And he certainly is ready to get some actual trade agreements in place. That should be a slam dunk for Romney. Good call Saigon.

 

[Saigon]

Gatsby -

Are you serious?

I'd have thought most conservatives would have worried he was a liability after insulting Engand one week, and labeling Russia your worst enemy the next.

 

[Stephanie]

They had Carter ahead of Reagan at this time and we all saw how that turned out

and Obama is WORSE than Carter..

tsk tsk

 

[LoneLaugher]

And we all know that Romney is a FAR more effective candidate than Reagan was. He's more likeable, connects better with voters and has demonstrated courage by sticking to his guns on every issue.

Romney is a lock!

 

[editec]

I have, per usual, absolutely no idea who is going to take this race.

I have no confidence in anybody's polls on the subject, either.

 

[The Rabbi]

Gatsby -

Are you serious?

I'd have thought most conservatives would have worried he was a liability after insulting Engand one week, and labeling Russia your worst enemy the next.

Do we need to play the video of Obama at the Queen's table running his mouth yet again? Or Michelle touching the Queen?
Compared to what Obama has done in foreign policy Romney could shit on the Queen and still be ahead.
Obama's foreign policies are total failures. Every one of them.