Obama Bump of 2.7% in Polls Since 3rd Debate

[Interpol]

rush limbaugh told his listeners to lie to pollsters

Well, that's nice, but there's no empirical data to show that that strategy is ever reflected anywhere in the real world.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

rush limbaugh told his listeners to lie to pollsters

Well, that's nice, but there's no empirical data to show that that strategy is ever reflected anywhere in the real world.

yawn ... Republicans keep getting arrested for voter fraud

 

[BluePhantom]

rush limbaugh told his listeners to lie to pollsters

Well, that's nice, but there's no empirical data to show that that strategy is ever reflected anywhere in the real world.

yawn ... Republicans keep getting arrested for voter fraud

Despite all your big talk all over these boards, Dante do you actually have a point to make that you can back up with any substance, statistical analysis...hell...at least a reasonable argument...or can i safely put you in the category of Hazelnut, TM, and Zoom? You flap your lips a lot but you don't say a fucking thing.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Well, that's nice, but there's no empirical data to show that that strategy is ever reflected anywhere in the real world.

yawn ... Republicans keep getting arrested for voter fraud

Despite all your big talk all over these boards, Dante do you actually have a point to make that you can back up with any substance, statistical analysis...hell...at least a reasonable argument...or can i safely put you in the category of Hazelnut, TM, and Zoom? You flap your lips a lot but you don't say a fucking thing.

linked to analysis in other threads. gave own opinion on long term trends and examples of past races. more.. it gets buried.

now fuck off you light weight blowhard

 

[BluePhantom]

yawn ... Republicans keep getting arrested for voter fraud

Despite all your big talk all over these boards, Dante do you actually have a point to make that you can back up with any substance, statistical analysis...hell...at least a reasonable argument...or can i safely put you in the category of Hazelnut, TM, and Zoom? You flap your lips a lot but you don't say a fucking thing.

linked to analysis in other threads. gave own opinion on long term trends and examples of past races. more.. it gets buried.

now fuck off you light weight blowhard

I have sparred with you on a couple threads. I haven't seen you post a single link to anything. I have seen you make personal attacks when your argument is destroyed. I have seen you act like a smart ass hoping that...what I assume you think passes for wit, will save your ass in absence of anything valuable...I have seen a lot of shit. One thing I haven't seen is anything of substance. Here let me educate you.

I will try this again since I posted this on one of those "other threads you have so powerful dominated" and I am still waiting for you to refute.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/256704-5-point-obama-lead-in-ohio-ohio-ohio-4.html#post6211202

Still waiting for a response. Still haven't gotten one. Got a lot of shit talk from you, but not a single word about actual analysis.

 

[BluePhantom]

Despite all your big talk all over these boards, Dante do you actually have a point to make that you can back up with any substance, statistical analysis...hell...at least a reasonable argument...or can i safely put you in the category of Hazelnut, TM, and Zoom? You flap your lips a lot but you don't say a fucking thing.

linked to analysis in other threads. gave own opinion on long term trends and examples of past races. more.. it gets buried.

now fuck off you light weight blowhard

I have sparred with you on a couple threads. I haven't seen you post a single link to anything. I have seen you make personal attacks when your argument is destroyed. I have seen you act like a smart ass hoping that...what I assume you think passes for wit, will save your ass in absence of anything valuable...I have seen a lot of shit. One thing I haven't seen is anything of substance. Here let me educate you.

I will try this again since I posted this on one of those "other threads you have so powerful dominated" and I am still waiting for you to refute.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/256704-5-point-obama-lead-in-ohio-ohio-ohio-4.html#post6211202

Still waiting for a response. Still haven't gotten one. Got a lot of shit talk from you, but not a single word about actual analysis.

I am a-waiting

 

[Ravi]

Romney made a smart decision when he decided to give no more interviews between now and the election. This way, he can't make any more buffoonish remarks.

It is too late though. Polls are swinging back to Obama as is Intrade.

I'll be interested in seeing if he manages to squire away from the rapist supporting senate candidate.

 

[BluePhantom]

Romney made a smart decision when he decided to give no more interviews between now and the election. This way, he can't make any more buffoonish remarks.

It is too late though. Polls are swinging back to Obama as is Intrade.

I'll be interested in seeing if he manages to squire away from the rapist supporting senate candidate.

he already did. He condemned the remark fully. Intrade...come on Ravi...I give you far more credit than that. Don't prove me to be mistaken about your intellect. As far as the polls swinging back to Obama....hard to tell. the national polls are fluctuating back and forth because the most siginificant ones are tracking polls...Rasmussen uses a three day rolling average, Gallup a seven, TIPP a six (I will call TIPP significant for the sake of argument)...the only polls right now that are not outdated are those that were started and completeled after the third debate and there are precious few of those because there just hasn't been enough time.

Prior to debate III the polls were in Romney's favor although the trend had slowed. We don't know yet how or if the momentum has changed.

 

[JoeB131]

Actually it will be the guy who wins the EC, where the president has the clear advantage.

I don't know how you figure that.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Romney 206, Obama 201

Colorado is trending Romney, Florida is almost a lock for Romney, New Hampshire is trending Romney, Virginia is trending Romney...that's 55 EV for a total of 261. If he takes Wisconsin or Ohio it's game, set, match, and checkmate on top of it and while Obama is currently leading in both it aint by very much and the trends still favor Romney.

Phantom, you are still a hack.

Colorado and VA are tossups, and Obama has a better ground game than Romney does. That will probably make all the difference.

But the fact is, Romney is trailing in Ohio and Wisconsin and if Obama wins those along with PA, MI (which RCP is still insisting are toss ups for some reason) he just needs Iowa or Nevada to get him over 270.

Game. Set. Match.

 

[JoeB131]

Romney made a smart decision when he decided to give no more interviews between now and the election. This way, he can't make any more buffoonish remarks.

It is too late though. Polls are swinging back to Obama as is Intrade.

I'll be interested in seeing if he manages to squire away from the rapist supporting senate candidate.

Well said.

 

[skookerasbil]

Keeping it real...............

 

[JoeB131]

Skooby, the neighbors are starting to complain about all the tissues you leave in the bushes around my house.

 

[skookerasbil]

 

[JoeB131]

12 more days until the Mormon gets crushed?

Yup. Looking forward to it.

 

[BluePhantom]

Actually it will be the guy who wins the EC, where the president has the clear advantage.

I don't know how you figure that.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Romney 206, Obama 201

Colorado is trending Romney, Florida is almost a lock for Romney, New Hampshire is trending Romney, Virginia is trending Romney...that's 55 EV for a total of 261. If he takes Wisconsin or Ohio it's game, set, match, and checkmate on top of it and while Obama is currently leading in both it aint by very much and the trends still favor Romney.

Phantom, you are still a hack.

Colorado and VA are tossups, and Obama has a better ground game than Romney does. That will probably make all the difference.

But the fact is, Romney is trailing in Ohio and Wisconsin and if Obama wins those along with PA, MI (which RCP is still insisting are toss ups for some reason) he just needs Iowa or Nevada to get him over 270.

Game. Set. Match.

I really don't know why you continue to do this to yourself Joe. "If Obama wins this and this and this and this and this he wins....."

You are aware that historically the undecided voters break for the challenger right? That happens at roughly a 60% clip. Now you are aware that right now history is repeating itself in that regard right?

Now if we go just by RCP Romney has 206 and Obama has 201.

Now we can realistically make some reasonable calls here intheir toos up states. Romney will take Florida (29) and at this point almost certainly Virginia (13). That gives Romney 248. That means he needs 22 to win. We can give Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20) to Obama. That gives him 237. He needs 33 to win.

Let's look at Romney's paths to victory in order of likelihood:

1) Ohio and any other state (and he's looking strong and trending well in New Hampshire and Colorado - he will get one of them)

2) Wisconsin and two states from Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada.

3) Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire

Well I would say 3 is one hell of a longshot. 2 is only slightly more realistic because logically it doesn't stand to reason that Romney would take Wisconsin and lose Ohio. But 1 is VERY possible and if trends continue, damn near likely.

Now let's look at Obama's paths to victory...

1) Ohio, Wisconsin, and one state between Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

2) Ohio, Colorado and one state between Iowa and Nevada.

3) Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire

4) Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire

Ok....just forget about 4. Romney will pick off one so that really means he has to win Ohio and the trends are not looking good for him there. Even if he does, he still has to pick up Colorado or New Hampshire and neither of those are looking good for him now either.

Now I agree that things can change....the polls have not yet shown how the third debate will influence things. It's too early yet. We don't know what October surprise is coming from either side. I will say that the Benghazi emails sure aint gonna help Obama's cause.

 

[skookerasbil]

12 more days until the Mormon gets crushed?

Yup. Looking forward to it.

Whatever you say s0n..........but be looking for my PM to you on election night. Dollar to a thousand stale donuts that when I click SEND, I'll be laughing my balls off.

 

[JoeB131]

yawn ... Republicans keep getting arrested for voter fraud

Despite all your big talk all over these boards, Dante do you actually have a point to make that you can back up with any substance, statistical analysis...hell...at least a reasonable argument...or can i safely put you in the category of Hazelnut, TM, and Zoom? You flap your lips a lot but you don't say a fucking thing.

linked to analysis in other threads. gave own opinion on long term trends and examples of past races. more.. it gets buried.

now fuck off you light weight blowhard

Blue Phantom is a legend in his own mind. He really thinks repeating whatever crap they are slinging at RCP trying to get foot-traffic means anything.

Fact is, even if by some miracle, Obama loses the popular vote, he's got a lock on the electoral vote. Nobody's idiot brother is going to lose the ballots this time.

 

[BluePhantom]

Despite all your big talk all over these boards, Dante do you actually have a point to make that you can back up with any substance, statistical analysis...hell...at least a reasonable argument...or can i safely put you in the category of Hazelnut, TM, and Zoom? You flap your lips a lot but you don't say a fucking thing.

linked to analysis in other threads. gave own opinion on long term trends and examples of past races. more.. it gets buried.

now fuck off you light weight blowhard

Blue Phantom is a legend in his own mind. He really thinks repeating whatever crap they are slinging at RCP trying to get foot-traffic means anything.

Fact is, even if by some miracle, Obama loses the popular vote, he's got a lock on the electoral vote. Nobody's idiot brother is going to lose the ballots this time.

Oh Dante and JoeB are of the same mind. Well everything is completely clear to me now. Hey Dante...I am not sure if anything is more damning in the world than a JoeB endorsement. You might be able to get Truthmatters or rDean to sign your "Phantom sucks" petition though. I am going to bed. You guys are fucking crack up.

 

[skookerasbil]

Blue..........undecideds fall more like 80% for the challenger Incumbent Rule

.......... and think about it. This year, with the economy in the shitter, it will be at least that.



The k00ks are fond of dismissing this out of hand........ Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder....... but they also think the economy right now is awesome!!! I'll go with the people with 100% win........when the economy sucks balls, the incumbent goes down hard every time.

 

[BluePhantom]

Oh and Dante.....I am STILL fucking waiting for you to refute my arguments with something more than a JoeB level "you suck", "
I hate Mormons" response. It's been two days...clearly it aint gonna come.