Obama Bump of 2.7% in Polls Since 3rd Debate

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Interpol, Oct 24, 2012.

  1. Interpol
    Offline

    Interpol Radical Centrist

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2012
    Messages:
    1,465
    Thanks Received:
    479
    Trophy Points:
    210
    Location:
    U.S.
    Ratings:
    +730
    In polls in the last 2 days, President Obama has decidedly ended Gov. Romney's two weeks of momentum, and has grabbed the ball back.

    Talking Points Memo

    CVOTER (+5 Obama) from 10/7-10/13 it was Romney 49-46

    from 10/17-10/23 it's Obama 49-47

    Gallup (LV) (+4 Obama) 10/14-20 Romney 52-45 10/17-23 Romney 50-47

    Gallup (RV) (+4 O) 10/14-20 Romney 49-46 10/17-23 Obama 48-47

    PPP (+4 O) 10/12-14 Romney 50-46 10/19-23 Romney 48 Obama 48

    Rasmussen (+2 Romney) 10/18-20 Romney 49-47 10/21-23 Romney 50-46

    RAND (+2 O) 10/20 Obama 48-46 10/23 Obama 49-45

    Reuters/Ipsos (+2 O) 10/8-12 Romney 46-45 10/19-23 Obama 47-46

    IBD/TIPP (+3 O) 10/12-17 tied at 46 10/18-23 Obama 47-44



    That's a 2.75% shift in just 2 days of polling, while three quarters of those polls also include days leading up to the debate, which were favorable for Romney.

    Gone is the 7-point lead from Gallup.

    It won't be until well into the weekend that we have a clearer view of the effect of this bump for Obama after his third debate, but it is clear now that the 2nd debate slowed the Romney momentum marginally, while the 3rd debate appears to show the beginning of a momentum swing back towards the President.

    My prediction? I think the national polls, which come out to a tie at the moment, all of which are within the margin of error, will pretty much stay that way now, with one poll after another showing a tie, or Obama up by 2, or Romney up by 2. From here on in, the winner will be the guy with the best ground game.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
  2. LordBrownTrout
    Offline

    LordBrownTrout Gold Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2007
    Messages:
    15,490
    Thanks Received:
    2,961
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Location:
    South Texas
    Ratings:
    +6,351
    Momentum continuing to shift to Romney as the tide shifts away from O.
     
  3. mikegriffith1
    Offline

    mikegriffith1 Mike Griffith

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2012
    Messages:
    1,750
    Thanks Received:
    621
    Trophy Points:
    285
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +1,878
    What a relief, because I was afraid we might actually elect a guy who has balanced every budget he's ever managed, who brought his state's unemployment rate down to below the national average (to below 5%), who held state spending to nearly zero net growth, who increased his state's bond rating, who increased his state's reserve fund, etc., etc.

    I was afraid we would not want to reelect a president who has piled up as much debt in 4 years as Bush did in 8 years, who has given us a trillion-plus deficit for each of his 3 budget years, who has given us more than 3 years of 8%-plus unemployment, who has given us the weakest 3 years of economic growth since the Great Depression, who has presided over a doubling of the price of a gallon of gas, etc., etc. Gosh, why would we not want to give him 4 more years?
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 2
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2012
  4. skookerasbil
    Offline

    skookerasbil Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2009
    Messages:
    24,138
    Thanks Received:
    2,909
    Trophy Points:
    290
    Location:
    Not the middle of nowhere
    Ratings:
    +6,168
    [​IMG]



    No worries here............not for months.
     
  5. hazlnut
    Offline

    hazlnut Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2012
    Messages:
    10,202
    Thanks Received:
    1,603
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Location:
    Chicago
    Ratings:
    +4,195
    Reading is not your strong suit.

    If this trend keeps up, Romney is going to lose in a landslide.
     
  6. iamwhatiseem
    Offline

    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2010
    Messages:
    14,817
    Thanks Received:
    3,114
    Trophy Points:
    260
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +6,097
    You guys realize how many times the polls are wrong - in particular, the closer to the election the farther off they tend to be?
     
  7. AmyNation
    Offline

    AmyNation Road Warrior Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2012
    Messages:
    9,021
    Thanks Received:
    1,013
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Currently stationed at the kitchen table
    Ratings:
    +1,016
    There will be no landslide wins.
     
  8. auditor0007
    Offline

    auditor0007 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    12,566
    Thanks Received:
    2,255
    Trophy Points:
    255
    Location:
    Toledo, OH
    Ratings:
    +3,218
    Amazing that he could do all those things during the biggest boom years this country had seen in a very long time. Just friggin amazing. More amazing is the fact that he was able to balance the budget since no other governor ever had. Oh, that's right, all of Massachusetts' governors have had balanced budgets because the state had a balanced budget amendment. They have to have a balanced budget.

    If you really want to know how much the people of Massachusetts love their ex-governor, you ought to figure out why it is that he trails Obama by twenty points in his own state.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  9. Old Rocks
    Online

    Old Rocks Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    46,377
    Thanks Received:
    5,397
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Portland, Ore.
    Ratings:
    +10,253
  10. Zoom
    Offline

    Zoom BANNED

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2011
    Messages:
    2,215
    Thanks Received:
    276
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +276
    Congrats on your second term Mr. President.
     

Share This Page