Nuclear Israel

[waltky]

Uncle Ferd says dey prob'ly got dem neutron bombs Jimmy Carter took a pass on...

Powell discusses secret Israeli nukes in leaked 2015 email
September 16, 2016 WASHINGTON (AP) — In a private email exchange last year leaked this week by hackers, former Secretary of State Colin Powell discussed Israel's nuclear weapons capability with a friend, saying the country has 200 warheads.

Though Israel is widely believed to have developed nukes decades ago, it has never declared itself to be a nuclear state. The existence of its weapons program is considered classified information by both the Israeli and U.S. governments. Powell, a retired Army general who has served as White House national security adviser and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Associated Press on Friday through a spokeswoman he was referring to public estimates of Israel's nukes. "Gen. Powell has not been briefed or had any knowledge from U.S. sources on the existence and or size of an Israeli nuclear capability," the statement said. "He like many people believe that there may be a capability and the number 200 has been speculated upon in open sources." It added: "This email was written 10 years after he left government and has not received briefings on classified matters." Powell, 79, would not say whether he still retains a security clearance.

In the March 2015 exchange from his personal Gmail account, Powell was discussing a speech that day to a joint session of Congress by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conservative Israeli leader staunchly opposed the deal then proposed by President Barack Obama to curb Iran's nuclear weapons program. "Iranians can't use one if they finally make one," Powell wrote to Democratic donor Jeffrey Leeds, a hedge-fund founder who serves on the board of the Colin L. Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership at the City College of New York. "The boys in Tehran know Israel has 200, all targeted on Tehran, and we have thousands." Itai Bardov, spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, declined to discuss Powell's email or his nation's policy of not commenting on whether it has nuclear weapons.

Asked about the issue at a briefing Friday, State Department spokesman John Kirby also declined to comment. "I'm not going to discuss matters of intelligence," Kirby said. "We support the nuclear nonproliferation treaty." Powell is not the first top-level U.S. government official to publicly discuss Israel's nukes. Former President Jimmy Carter has said in interviews and speeches that Israel has between 150 and 300 warheads. But the issue is not supposed to be discussed openly by those who work for the U.S. government and hold active security clearances. Even members of Congress are routinely admonished not to even mention the existence of an Israeli nuclear arsenal, said Avner Cohen, a professor at the James Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

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[Daniyel]

That's the winning diplomacy to intercept potential threats, what would you do in this spot?

 

[TheOldSchool]

That's the winning diplomacy to intercept potential threats, what would you do in this spot?

Having WMD's in the most bloodstained, war-torn strip of land in the history of mankind in a country run by and fought over by religious lunatics is a terrible, terrible idea.

 

[Mr. H.]

Don't fuck with Jews. Period.

 

[TheOldSchool]

Don't fuck with Jews. Period.

 

[Daniyel]

That's the winning diplomacy to intercept potential threats, what would you do in this spot?

Having WMD's in the most bloodstained, war-torn strip of land in the history of mankind in a country run by and fought over by religious lunatics is a terrible, terrible idea.

That is a great answer but to a different question.
Is this how you convince me to trust your position?

 

[Phoenall]

That's the winning diplomacy to intercept potential threats, what would you do in this spot?

Having WMD's in the most bloodstained, war-torn strip of land in the history of mankind in a country run by and fought over by religious lunatics is a terrible, terrible idea.

Not being tempted to use them to settle the issue once and for all shows a level of restraint unmatched by any other nation. And so the rest of the world should be saying to the arab muslims time to obey international laws and get out of Israel

 

[Phoenall]

Don't fuck with Jews. Period.

Superceded by first the Christians and then the muslims who both claim to be Gods chosen people

 

[RoccoR]

waltky, et al,

Yes, this information is (and always was) an UNCLASSIFIED estimate based on open-source information from the late 1990's.

Uncle Ferd says dey prob'ly got dem neutron bombs Jimmy Carter took a pass on...

Powell discusses secret Israeli nukes in leaked 2015 email
September 16, 2016 WASHINGTON (AP) — In a private email exchange last year leaked this week by hackers, former Secretary of State Colin Powell discussed Israel's nuclear weapons capability with a friend, saying the country has 200 warheads.

Though Israel is widely believed to have developed nukes decades ago, it has never declared itself to be a nuclear state. The existence of its weapons program is considered classified information by both the Israeli and U.S. governments. Powell, a retired Army general who has served as White House national security adviser and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Associated Press on Friday through a spokeswoman he was referring to public estimates of Israel's nukes. "Gen. Powell has not been briefed or had any knowledge from U.S. sources on the existence and or size of an Israeli nuclear capability," the statement said. "He like many people believe that there may be a capability and the number 200 has been speculated upon in open sources." It added: "This email was written 10 years after he left government and has not received briefings on classified matters." Powell, 79, would not say whether he still retains a security clearance.

(COMMENT)

Don't rest so much credibility on the topic, just because a notable person like GEN Powell purportedly said something. The source of those numbers come from a wide range of numbers dating back before the turn of the century.

The 200 Warhead Number comes form estimates such as:

​

As you can see, and probably intuitively knew, the numbers vary considerably over time and is dependent on whether you accept a high medium or low estimate.

In 1999, the DIA took the low estimate and roughly came up with this chart:

Based on plausible upper and lower bounds of
the operating practices at the reactor, Israel
could have thus produced enough plutonium
for at least 100 nuclear weapons, but probably
not significantly more than 200 weapons.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/
Maintained by Steven Aftergood and Hans M. Kristensen
Updated January 8, 2007
​

(THE POINT)

Atomic and Nuclear Weapons do not have an everlasting shelf-life; they need routine maintenance. The older a weapon is, the less reliable it becomes. Weapons that were constructed in the 1990s were one of three kinds: Fission, Fusion, and Hybrid Weapons. Without the Israeli CNWDI (Critical Nuclear Weapons Design Information), it would be difficult to talk intelligently about any such weapons program (if any) the Israelis may or may not have had (never had or likely to have). It is all speculation at this point. The US Intelligence Community has not been known for its accuracy in such matters. It requires a very good HUMINT Program which the US does not have (especially in the Middle East and Far East).

Many tend to think that because the numbers are so widely variant, and so little data is known about any such program, that there may have been a small program at one time, but has since retired. Or that the number of weapons is actually much small than is commonly believed. There is no information available at this time to substantiate the discovery of weapons research, fuel production, trigger, detonators or the various geometries of the physical package.

Don't use dated and speculative material to discuss this topic and make judgements. It is just not a subject that lends itself to that kind of evaluation.

Most Respectfully,
R