Now even CBS doubts a blue wave is coming; can we stop making believe one is coming?

[Muhammed]

Stock market is creeping up, trumps tariffs are working, low minority unemployment.....I just don't see any reason democrats will do well at all.

But Trump ate pizza with a fork!

 

[Cellblock2429]

Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.

A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.

CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.

What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.

To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”

Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.

There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.

There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.

In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.

This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.

In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.

It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.

But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.

Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.

They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”

That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.

The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.

In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.

After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.

The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.

So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?

Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.

On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.

There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.

They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.

Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.

They will support the candidates Trump endorses.

............................

The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.

The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.

/----/ "Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of..." That makes no sense. It's libtards who are always afraid of things from the climate, Suvs, Coal fired plants, lower taxes, to guns, to freedom of speech and the Pro Life movement.

 

[Silhouette]

Well, we'll know a lot more in about 10 weeks.

This is all just noise.

The point is now though that the blue wave is a mirage put forward by the far left operatives (gay Robby Mook's Mafia) to try to spur actual momentum.

I maintain that one story about trannies (deranged males) dominating women's rights to privacy in their intimate hygiene reserves & "the blue wave " will flatline. Just like 2016.

Or maybe just a prosecution of some parade participants with photo proof of indecent exposure to kids they invited to watch.? Mix it up a little.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of will not be able to read this all the way through.

A report CBS probably wishes it never let see the light of day, says its polling “expert” doesn’t see a blue wave; in fact, a careful reading of the CBS report says a red wave may very well be on its way.

CBS has adopted the LA Times/USC Dornsife method of polling by compiling a large sample of respondents who are willing to be polled periodically on a continuous basis.

What CBS found is that there is no groundswell of voters itching to vote Democrat in the 25 “Battleground” Congressional districts it has focused on.

To give the left every chance to prevail, CBS has been polling only in Republican held seats identified by the left leaning Charlie Cook as “toss ups.”

Of the 25 seats, Cook assigns a partisan edge of +5 for Democrats in one and +1 for Democrats in another.

There are four seats rated EVEN by Cook.

There are 19 districts Cook gives a partisan edge of between one point and 3 points to Republicans.

In 6 districts Cook assigns a partisan edge of 4 or more to Republicans.

This means these districts already vote Republican and already have a Republican incumbent so naming only them as “toss ups” is based on wishful thinking.

In a recently posted article the New York Times wrote about the likelihood of two Minnesota Congressional districts flipping from Democrat to Republican.

It also added there are two Nevada seats, one Pennsylvania seat, one Florida seat, and one Arizona seat that could flip from Democrat to Republican as well.

But the bad news for those looking for something to be afraid of doesn’t stop there.

Last week the Politico posted a story that breathlessly described how the Democrats were “cutting into the GOP’s longstanding turnout advantage in midterm elections.

They called this “another encouraging sign for the minority party’s hopes of winning the House in November.”

That’s where the good news for Democrats ended.

The next paragraphs told of a “big jump” in Democrat enthusiasm.

In effect, it said Democrats were now ONLY down 9 points to Republicans in enthusiasm at 75/66 in the “very motivated to vote” category.

After that the “report” reverted to the type of murky semi-sensical language the Democrat controlled media uses to hide the truth.

The writer immediately contradicted himself by saying Democrats are just 3 points behind at 75/72 in enthusiasm.

So, the question becomes why talk about being behind 75/66 first when the real numbers are 75/72?

Answer: Because the 75/66 number is the true one.

On top of this the Democrat generic lead is gone (yes, they are up by 2.25% but that is way off what they need to win back the House); and Black support for Donald Trump is at 36% in the Rasmussen survey.

There is no question that this will translate into an advantage for Republicans. African Americans want the same of life that everyone else does.

They want a job and a growing economy to raise a family in.

Clearly Blacks are beginning to recognize it is Trump’s policies that are bringing them closer to their goals.

They will support the candidates Trump endorses.

............................

The Cook Political Index (CPI)is an historical index. It’s a good metric because voters tend to vote the same way that they voted last time. Except when they don’t. Additionally, turnout is always less in midterm elections compared with Presidential elections. Turnout in midterm elections tend to favor the Republicans, historically Democrats stay at home for the midterms. These polls are showing that it looks like this year will probably be a typical midterm election and people will vote the way that they voted in 2016. That means another Red Wave, not a Blue Wave.

The media have been telling us that there will be a Blue Wave because that’s what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen. More likely, the reports of Democrat enthusiasm are exaggerated and Democrats will behave in line with historic midterms.

/----/ "Warning! “Conservatives” who constantly search for things to be afraid of..." That makes no sense. It's libtards who are always afraid of things from the climate, Suvs, Coal fired plants, lower taxes, to guns, to freedom of speech and the Pro Life movement.

Liberals, in my experience, are fearful folks who need the bodyguard of big government because they are vulnerable, battered emotional hypochondriacs....they need to insure themselves against every societal misadventure that could occur.
They call that 'empathy,' but it's actually neurosis.

They have some sort of metaphorical bullet lodged near their heart, just waiting for a slight move which will end it all! Thus, the overwhelming feeling olaf incipient failure, and apprehension. And, recognizing their own weakness, they lash out at those willing to depend on themselves.

 

[EverCurious]

We'll see. So far I haven't seen anything that puts Trump in a bad light on this Russia collusion thing. And on the "obstruction" thing Comey was basically a twat, everyone in the country on all sides of the aisle thought so at some point or another - right up until the MSM suggested it could be obstruction anyway, then he was "wrongfully terminated"

As far as Manafort cheating on his taxes years ago, I doubt too many are going to care really. I bet every single one of us has probably fucked up our taxes somehow in the past 30 years. There's a reason that H&R Block offers "tax fuck up insurance" the laws are damn near impossible to keep on top of heh

Have you seen the evidence Mueller has collected?

Unlike Comey who never saw a camera he didn’t like, Mueller keeps his mouth shut as he methodically builds a case

No I haven't, and neither have you son. I did however watch the Manafort thing - you know the shoe in victory ya'll were spouting about? I watched Mueller prance around in a ridiculous attempt to somehow argue that none should be able to afford an ostrich jacket over their lifetime... I'd call it a dog and pony show, but clearly it was for the birds - a la folks with their heads in the sand...

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

Most people between the ages of 18-29 vote blue. They have seen Capitalism fail and now feel as though it doesn't work. Thank you, Bush. Bail outs are not good optics. Usually by the time they reach 40 they understand that capitalism does work and vote the other way but not always. I voted Blue a lot until the most recent elections. Now I will never vote Blue again.

 

[busybee01]

Some interesting statistics

• The Dems need to win 24 seats to regain control of the House
  
• The average swing in seats when a new President takes power two years later is 33 seats towards the party out of power.
• 44 Republican Congressmen are retiring, by far and away the most this century. 20 Democrats are retiring
  
• According to the Cook Report, 37 Republican-held seats are toss-ups, leaning or likely Democrat. There are 3 Democrat seats that are toss-ups, leaning or likely Republican.
• The average swing in all the House special elections since Trump was elected has been 15 points to the Democrats. In 2016, 38 Republicans won by 15 points or less.

/----/ And if you can just pick out the 6 correct numbers you can win the Powerball for $100 million. What's so tough about that?

Congressional elections are decided by who gets the most votes not a electoral college.

/——-/ Thank you Captain Obvious

Trump supporters don't seem to understand that. I guess they are too dumb.

 

[busybee01]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.
View attachment 212022

The trouble is that the economy was growing under Obama was well. You also forgot about healthcare which voters trust Democrats more than Republicans and even on taxes, Republicans and Democrats are about equal.

 

[busybee01]

Well, we'll know a lot more in about 10 weeks.

This is all just noise.

The point is now though that the blue wave is a mirage put forward by the far left operatives (gay Robby Mook's Mafia) to try to spur actual momentum.

I maintain that one story about trannies (deranged males) dominating women's rights to privacy in their intimate hygiene reserves & "the blue wave " will flatline. Just like 2016.

Or maybe just a prosecution of some parade participants with photo proof of indecent exposure to kids they invited to watch.? Mix it up a little.

It is not a mirage. The only question is how big it will be. Republicans are prepared to abandon at least a dozen Republican held seats to try to hold onto a narrow majority.

 

[The Purge]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.
View attachment 212022

The trouble is that the economy was growing under Obama was well. You also forgot about healthcare which voters trust Democrats more than Republicans and even on taxes, Republicans and Democrats are about equal.

Well with thevFed having "0" interest rates for most of the kenyans terms, you would have thought our GDP would have been a consistent 4-6% a year.....nowhere near that!

 

[Silhouette]

Most people between the ages of 18-29 vote blue. They have seen Capitalism fail and now feel as though it doesn't work. Thank you, Bush. Bail outs are not good optics. Usually by the time they reach 40 they understand that capitalism does work and vote the other way but not always. I voted Blue a lot until the most recent elections. Now I will never vote Blue again.

You know I have a handful of young people who I'm in regular contact with. I've noticed something funny since the GOP took the momentum away from the crazy train on the far left.

These young people who used to exhibit something close to rabies with their blind liberal worship are now showing signs of sobering up. Why? Well, the same mechanism that lured them in is what is chilling their enthusiasm. Young people are the most prone to group-think of any demographic. And they get bored easily. Maybe it's just me talking to them and getting them to see the light, but I doubt it. Youth aren't big listeners to a lone voice. More likely that they've seen how absurd the far left can go and it's pissed some of them off irreparably.

This is why I keep bringing up the men in women's bathroom thing. I know y'all are sick of hearing about it. But it is important as to this topic of youth and trends in thinking/voting. The LGBT patriarchy misjudged the loyalty of the females in its ranks by essentially violating their rights to control of their bodies. Yes, that's what I said. And how this happens is, before a young liberal woman in order to escape male observations and just sheer presence could escape to the ladies room. Young women are notoriously vain and self-conscious. Some are even shy; the wallflower liberal women are for sure. Being forced to never have a private area just for themselves away from males is INTOLERABLE even to the most dripping, brainwashed liberal gal. In private she's thinking..."what if?..."

The fact that many of these deranged males (trannies) remain sexually attracted to females is just another chunk of rock salt in the wounds. The gay patriarchy of the LGBT cult simply showed its true colors to its female membership. ie: "we are just like conservatives in that we believe women should lay down and take whatever we say goes!" So, women having the same shake on either side of the extreme aisle locations, are in a sort of limbo now as to loyalties. This is particularly true in the middle demographic, but also privately sliding left. Perhaps even far left where many uber-feminists lurk. "Do we let males call the shots to THIS extreme?" I mean comparatively, if you really think about it, women being told "there is nowhere safe for you to retreat away from prying male eyes" is almost the same as being told "you don't have a right to do with your body as you please because males will always be watching, lording over you". These things are sort of a 2nd cousin by marriage to "you don't have the right to an abortion because men say you can't do with your body as you want without male oversight".

 

[Cellblock2429]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.
View attachment 212022

The trouble is that the economy was growing under Obama was well. You also forgot about healthcare which voters trust Democrats more than Republicans and even on taxes, Republicans and Democrats are about equal.

Well with thevFed having "0" interest rates for most of the kenyans terms, you would have thought our GDP would have been a consistent 4-6% a year.....nowhere near that!

/——/ Libs think it was Obozo’s investment brilliance and not QE that led to the market run up.

 

[Cellblock2429]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.
View attachment 212022

The trouble is that the economy was growing under Obama was well. You also forgot about healthcare which voters trust Democrats more than Republicans and even on taxes, Republicans and Democrats are about equal.

/——-/ Well if that’s the case Hildabeast should have won in a landslide because Trump promised to end Obozocare

 

[Cellblock2429]

Some interesting statistics

• The Dems need to win 24 seats to regain control of the House
  
• The average swing in seats when a new President takes power two years later is 33 seats towards the party out of power.
• 44 Republican Congressmen are retiring, by far and away the most this century. 20 Democrats are retiring
  
• According to the Cook Report, 37 Republican-held seats are toss-ups, leaning or likely Democrat. There are 3 Democrat seats that are toss-ups, leaning or likely Republican.
• The average swing in all the House special elections since Trump was elected has been 15 points to the Democrats. In 2016, 38 Republicans won by 15 points or less.

/----/ And if you can just pick out the 6 correct numbers you can win the Powerball for $100 million. What's so tough about that?

Congressional elections are decided by who gets the most votes not a electoral college.

/——-/ Thank you Captain Obvious

Trump supporters don't seem to understand that. I guess they are too dumb.

/——/ Yeah that’s why we have to explain the EC to sore loser democrats 24/7 because we don’t understand the difference in presidential and all other Elections Bwhahahaha Bwhahahaha

 

[Cellblock2429]

Well, we'll know a lot more in about 10 weeks.

This is all just noise.

The point is now though that the blue wave is a mirage put forward by the far left operatives (gay Robby Mook's Mafia) to try to spur actual momentum.

I maintain that one story about trannies (deranged males) dominating women's rights to privacy in their intimate hygiene reserves & "the blue wave " will flatline. Just like 2016.

Or maybe just a prosecution of some parade participants with photo proof of indecent exposure to kids they invited to watch.? Mix it up a little.

It is not a mirage. The only question is how big it will be. Republicans are prepared to abandon at least a dozen Republican held seats to try to hold onto a narrow majority.

/——/ No one is abandoning anything Spanky. Grow up

 

[PoliticalChic]

The Democrats will gain seats in the House. That’s not even debatable. The Senate is up in the air at this point

/----/ "That’s not even debatable. " Well if Taz says we can't debate it, I guess we can't.
View attachment 212022

The trouble is that the economy was growing under Obama was well. You also forgot about healthcare which voters trust Democrats more than Republicans and even on taxes, Republicans and Democrats are about equal.

"...the economy was growing under Obama...,"

Exactly what level of moron are you????


The Obama Economy:


1... in today’s recovery — the slowest in the modern era going back to 1947 — private capital investment has lagged badly. ... so has the jobs situation, with 92 million dropping out of the workforce altogether. A labor-participation rate of 62.8% and an employment-to-population rate of 58% are historic lows indicative of the anemic jobs recovery. Big Business Swings Behind a Mantra of Growth - The New York Sun


2. Tavis Smiley: 'Black People Will Have Lost Ground in Every Single Economic Indicator' Under Obama
Tavis Smiley: 'Black People Will Have Lost Ground in Every Single Economic Indicator' Under Obama

["BET Founder: Trump’s economy bringing black workers back into the workforce"

BET Founder: Trump's economy bringing black workers back into the workforce]




3. . "Incomes Have Dropped Twice as Much During the 'Recovery' as During the Recession
. ...the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey ....indicate that the real (inflation-adjusted) median annual household income in America has fallen by 4.4 percent during the "recovery," after having fallen by 1.8 during the recession.
Incomes Have Dropped Twice as Much During the 'Recovery' as During the Recession


4. . In a stunning Tuesday report, Gallup CEO and Chairman Jim Clifton revealed that “for the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births.”Clifton says for the past six years since 2008, employer business startups have fallen below the business failure rate, spurring what he calls “an underground earthquake” that only stands to worsen as lagging U.S. Census data becomes available.
“Let’s get one thing clear: This economy is never truly coming back unless we reverse the birth and death trends of American businesses,” writes Clifton."Economic Death Spiral: More American Businesses Dying Than Starting - Breitbart


5. "Surprise: U.S. Economic Data Have Been the World's Most Disappointing
It's not only the just-released University of Michigan consumer confidence report and February retail sales on Thursday that surprised economists and investors with another dose of underwhelming news. Overall, U.S. economic data have been falling short of prognosticators' expectations by the most in six years." Surprise: U.S. Economic Data Have Been the World's Most Disappointing

6. . "That basic math is why middle class incomes have been in decline under Obama. The Census Bureau reports that since Obama became President 7 years ago, real median household income has fallen by $1,300 a year. Heritage Foundation Chief Economist Steve Moore explained in testimony before the Ways and Means Committee, “At 2 percent growth the economy doesn’t spin off enough jobs to increase wages, and tax revenues grow much too slowly to balance the budget.”
The recession officially ended more than 6 years ago. Wages and incomes have always grown in recoveries, not declined. Moreover, the American historical record is the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery. The economy is supposed to boom in a recovery to catch up with its long term economic growth trendline. But over 6 years after the recession ended, that still has not happened. Instead, what we have gotten under President Obama is the worst recovery from a recession since the Great Depression." http://limittaxes.org/2016/02/realizing-the-super-bowl-of-american-economic-growth/



7. "Even if you leave out the first quarter of 2009—when the recession that started in December 2007 was still ongoing--President Barack Obama has presided over the lowest average first-quarter GDP growth of any president who has served since 1947, which is the earliest year for which the Bureau of Economic Analysis has calculated quarterly GDP growth. " http://www.cnsnews.com/blog/terence...-obama-has-lowest-average-1stq-gdp-growth-any


8. The Obama Administration is aggressively exploiting regulation to achieve its policy agenda, issuing 157 new major rules at a cost to Americans approaching $73 billion annually....twice the annual average of his predecessor George W. Bush. And much more regulation is on the way, with another 125 major rules on the Administration’s to-do list, including dozens linked to the Dodd–Frank financial regulation law and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare. Red Tape Rising: Five Years of Regulatory Expansion


9. . "...take-home pay for many American workers has effectively fallen since the economic recovery began in 2009, according to a new study by an advocacy group that is to be released on Thursday.

The declines were greatest for the lowest-paid workers in sectors where hiring has been strong — home health care, food preparation and retailing — even though wages were already below average to begin with in those service industries.

“Stagnant wages are a problem for everyone at this point, but the imbalance in the economy has become more pronounced since the recession,”..." http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/03/b...rkers-see-biggest-drop-in-paychecks.html?_r=0


10. . "Obamacare health insurance co-ops surged past the $1 billion mark in losses this week, making history of sorts.The insolvencies, totaling $1.36 billion, mean that the co-ops have burned through more than half of the original $2 billion appropriatedin 2010 for the program under the Affordable Care Act. The funds were loaned to the start-up co-ops in 2012 and were to be repaid in 15 years, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which manages Obamacare.


...13 of the 23 federally-financed Obamacare co-ops have officially failed in only two years. Most are in the process of default as insurance regulators attempt to pay customer’s medical bills, cover medical providers and pay other creditors.
Obamacare Co-Op Mess Causes $1.3 Billion In Losses


11. Obama is the first President never to have had a year of 3% or better economic growth: "... annual growth during Obama’s “recovery” has never topped 3%. By comparison, it never fell below 3% during the Reagan recovery. And in the nine years following the 1990-91 recession, GDP grew faster than 3% in all but two. Heck, even Jimmy Carter had some strong growth years." President Obama's Growth Gap Hits $1.31 Trillion | Investor's Business Daily

a. "The years since 2007 have been a macroeconomic disaster for the United States of a magnitude unprecedented since the Great Depression." Obama: Always Wrong, Never In Doubt

b. ".... first president since Hoover to never have a single year above 3% GDP growth."Hedge fund billionaire calls Obama economy 'amazing'



12. ".... calculating how much the debt increased during Obama's two terms. On January 20, 2009, when he was sworn in, the debt was $10.626 trillion. On January 20, 2017, it was $19.947 trillion. That's why most people say Obama added $9 trillion to the debt, more than any other president."
How Much Did Obama Add to the Nation's Debt?

 

[Aba Incieni]

The trouble is that the economy was growing under Obama was well. You also forgot about healthcare which voters trust Democrats more than Republicans and even on taxes, Republicans and Democrats are about equal.

This is the way to think. It makes the day after so much more enjoyable.