Nov 2010 Congressional Blowout Prediction Thead

[CrusaderFrank]

Maryland undetermined Barbara Milkulski - inc Democrat Solid DEM Hold
Missouri Roy Blunt Robin Carnahan Republican - OPEN Weak GOP Hold
Nevada Sharron Angle Harry Reid - inc Democrat Weak GOP Gain
New Hampshire undetermined Paul Hodes Republican - OPEN Weak GOP Hold
New York undetermined Charles Schumer - inc Democrat Solid DEM Hold
New York undetermined Kirsten Gillibrand - inc Democrat Strong DEM Hold

Dems squeak by in MD and NY Reid is sent to pasture by a crazy Tea Party Candidate and when he fails to come out for his concession speech a search turns him up at a Gay Bar dressed like Carmen Miranda.

GOP +9

 

[CrusaderFrank]

North Carolina Richard Burr - inc Elaine Marshall Republican Mod GOP Hold
North Dakota John Hoeven Tracy Potter Democrat - OPEN Solid GOP Gain
Ohio Rob Portman Lee Fisher Republican - OPEN Weak GOP Hold
Oklahoma Tom Coburn - inc Jim Rogers Republican Solid GOP Hold
Oregon James Huffman Ron Wyden - inc Democrat Solid DEM Hold
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey Joe Sestak Democrat - OPEN Weak GOP Gain

GOP +11

After his loss, Joe Sestak begs Gunny to return to USMB

 

[CrusaderFrank]

South Carolina Jim DeMint - inc Alvin Greene Republican Solid GOP Hold
South Dakota John Thune - inc unopposed Republican Solid GOP Hold
Utah Mike Lee Sam Granato Republican - OPEN Solid GOP Hold
Vermont undetermined Patrick Leahy - inc Democrat Solid GOP Gain
Washington Dino Rossi Patty Murray - inc Democrat Weak DEM Hold
West Virginia undetermined undetermined Democrat - OPEN Strong DEM Hold
Wisconsin undetermined Russ Feingold - inc Democrat Weak GOP Gain

GOP +13

Leahy slips up during the debate and says he "wholly supports Joe Stalin's agenda"

 

[DiveCon]

Frank, where the HELL are you getting this from
just give us the link

 

[oreo]

There are a few variables but on the low end the Republicans pick up 75 seats and on the high end 100 in the House. The only really "Safe" Senate seats for the Dems are in NY, maybe Hawaii, low end 10 seat pick up, high end 14-16+

The high end estimated assume that Steele is booted from the RNC and Palin replaces him.

By Dec 2010, two thing happen, Hillary resigns and starts to run against Obama, and Obama loses all interest in US politics and take the UN gig as his full time job, again assuming that Palin is head of the RNC.

I wrote this in annoyingvision so Mr. Shaman can read it

and just what are you basing this on?

for one thing, there are never more than 34 Senate seats in play in any ONE election cycle
and how many of those are currently held by Democrats?
and how many are secure that are held by republicans?
the likelyhood of 14 to 16 seats changing is a near impossibility

Colorado will pick up a republican senate seat replacing our "accidental" democrat senator Michael Bennet. That's for certain.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Frank, where the HELL are you getting this from
just give us the link

They got a lot of it wrong, so I corrected it.

Election Projection: 2010 Elections, Senate Projections

 

[Epsilon Delta]

you really think Crist will pull it out?

He's been doing pretty well in the polls, at least. When it comes down to it, the state Democrats are going to realize (and I think most already have) that it's either him or Rubio, and they'd rather have a guy who may or may not caucus with the Republicans than a real Republican. Along with the disenfranchised Republicans and many independents, he'll have a fairly good shot at it. But if the Democrat somehow surges ahead even slightly, Crist will likely lose and the Republican will win, ironically enough.

the polls i've seen show it dead even between crist and rubio
but there are about 9% undecided
could tip it either way

I dunno, most of the most recent ones have given him solid 5-10% leads.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Florida Senate Race

He also has about double the cash Rubio has, and, you know, that's always important. But yeah, it could go either way. It's quite the toss-up.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

Frank, where the HELL are you getting this from
just give us the link

They got a lot of it wrong, so I corrected it.

Election Projection: 2010 Elections, Senate Projections

Hahaha, oh my god Frank, that's hilarious. Have you thought of starting your own polling company? You'd have a considerable lead over your competitors, cuz you wouldn't have to do any polls or pay any pollsters. You can just *think* of the numbers you like and publish whatever numbers you want.

 

[DiveCon]

Frank, where the HELL are you getting this from
just give us the link

They got a lot of it wrong, so I corrected it.

Election Projection: 2010 Elections, Senate Projections

actually, from the looks of it, they have it pretty darn close
the odds of a Repub winning in CT is almost impossible

 

[Toro]

I dunno, most of the most recent ones have given him solid 5-10% leads.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Florida Senate Race

He also has about double the cash Rubio has, and, you know, that's always important. But yeah, it could go either way. It's quite the toss-up.

Florida's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet on Rubio.

 

[DiveCon]

I dunno, most of the most recent ones have given him solid 5-10% leads.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Florida Senate Race

He also has about double the cash Rubio has, and, you know, that's always important. But yeah, it could go either way. It's quite the toss-up.

Florida's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet on Rubio.

i'd say too close to call
and if the dems have their guys pull out like the GOP did in CT last election, anything could happen

 

[Toro]

I dunno, most of the most recent ones have given him solid 5-10% leads.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Florida Senate Race

He also has about double the cash Rubio has, and, you know, that's always important. But yeah, it could go either way. It's quite the toss-up.

Florida's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet on Rubio.

i'd say too close to call
and if the dems have their guys pull out like the GOP did in CT last election, anything could happen

That won't happen. There are two candidates for the Democrats, one of whom is a very, very rich guy.

 

[DiveCon]

Florida's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet on Rubio.

i'd say too close to call
and if the dems have their guys pull out like the GOP did in CT last election, anything could happen

That won't happen. There are two candidates for the Democrats, one of whom is a very, very rich guy.

is he leading for the dem nod?

 

[Toro]

i'd say too close to call
and if the dems have their guys pull out like the GOP did in CT last election, anything could happen

That won't happen. There are two candidates for the Democrats, one of whom is a very, very rich guy.

is he leading for the dem nod?

I don't know. No one is paying attention. The Democrats are stunningly incompetent here.

The Dems originally threw out a nobody, some guy named Kendrick Meeks whose mother was some sort of bigwig in Miami, because they thought that Crist would cruise. Of course, they never thought that there'd be a challenge on the Right to Crist. So this billionaire guy has thrown his hat in the ring. If the Dems had someone strong, they would have a legitimate shot to win this state.

 

[DiveCon]

That won't happen. There are two candidates for the Democrats, one of whom is a very, very rich guy.

is he leading for the dem nod?

I don't know. No one is paying attention. The Democrats are stunningly incompetent here.

The Dems originally threw out a nobody, some guy named Kendrick Meeks whose mother was some sort of bigwig in Miami, because they thought that Crist would cruise. Of course, they never thought that there'd be a challenge on the Right to Crist. So this billionaire guy has thrown his hat in the ring. If the Dems had someone strong, they would have a legitimate shot to win this state.

the difference between Meeks and Greene is less than a percentage point

 

[Epsilon Delta]

I dunno, most of the most recent ones have given him solid 5-10% leads.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Florida Senate Race

He also has about double the cash Rubio has, and, you know, that's always important. But yeah, it could go either way. It's quite the toss-up.

Florida's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet on Rubio.

Well, of course there's no doubt that it's a toss-up. But at the moment, I'd disagree - Would put the cash on Crist. Though it is true that the Democrats just sort of gave up on the race here... At the moment, though, it's undoubtedly between Crist and Rubio. Whichever Democrat wins is a matter of which one will siphon more voters away from Crist and therefore give Rubio the seat.

Any takers on who Crist would caucus with? How would his choice affect his possibilities of winning as of the moment?

 

[DiveCon]

I dunno, most of the most recent ones have given him solid 5-10% leads.

United States Senate election in Florida, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

RealClearPolitics - 2010 Florida Senate Race

He also has about double the cash Rubio has, and, you know, that's always important. But yeah, it could go either way. It's quite the toss-up.

Florida's a toss-up. If I were a betting man, I'd probably bet on Rubio.

Well, of course there's no doubt that it's a toss-up. But at the moment, I'd disagree - Would put the cash on Crist. Though it is true that the Democrats just sort of gave up on the race here... At the moment, though, it's undoubtedly between Crist and Rubio. Whichever Democrat wins is a matter of which one will siphon more voters away from Crist and therefore give Rubio the seat.

Any takers on who Crist would caucus with? How would his choice affect his possibilities of winning as of the moment?

i would venture a guess he would be more likely to caucus with the Repubs than the dems
just as Joe Lieberman caucuses with the dems even though he had to run as an indy

 

[Sarah G]

The biggest mistake the left made was playing the race card.

You play the race card, and you lose independents and moderates forever. The left made a calculated risk going racial to fight the Tea Party. And even if some independents and moderates didn't like the Tea Party, they absolutely HATE the race card.

The left played it, it failed miserably, and now they'll deal with it. Obama and the modern left have accidentally defined themselves as being very quick to play the race card, and they'll sink for it.

You act like the races have already been run. We've heard this "landslide win for Republicans" since 2005. You've lost all of them.

These posts of yours could come back to haunt you.

 

[HUGGY]

The biggest mistake the left made was playing the race card.

You play the race card, and you lose independents and moderates forever. The left made a calculated risk going racial to fight the Tea Party. And even if some independents and moderates didn't like the Tea Party, they absolutely HATE the race card.

The left played it, it failed miserably, and now they'll deal with it. Obama and the modern left have accidentally defined themselves as being very quick to play the race card, and they'll sink for it.

You act like the races have already been run. We've heard this "landslide win for Republicans" since 2005. You've lost all of them.

These posts of yours could come back to haunt you.

Not likely....A very long time ago the GOP, like most parties, had a few skeletons in the closet. Now the skeletons have taken over the house and they are living in the closet. Their poor judgements have become so overwhelming they just refuse to accept responsiblity for any of them.