Hello, i give you this information that i translate French /English North Korea has been seeking access to nuclear weapons for more than 20 years - in order to be part of the very closed circle of nuclear powers, as well as Russia, the United States, Great Britain or Still France. After many more or less fruitful trials, the country led by a steel hand by Kim Jong-un seems to be poised to launch a nuclear device at any time. The government no longer hesitates to threaten its South Korean neighbor - and its ally, the United States. Today, according to some experts, North Korea is able to launch missiles capable of transporting a nuclear warhead, like the Kwangmyongsong intercontinental ballistic missile - capable of reaching Los Angeles, according to a study dated last February . Other recent analyzes suggest that by 2020, North Korea will have a "reliable" nuclear warhead likely to affect the United States. Yet, according to Rodger Baker, a North Korean case specialist with Stratfor, a company specializing in country risk analysis, it is not important to know when the North Korean nuclear bombs will be operational. "I'm pretty sure they can hit the United States today," he said. In other words, North Korea is ready to fuck a damn brothel, even though its ability to emerge winner of a nuclear conflict seems as likely as the victory of Jeremy Irons at the Oscars 2017 for his role in Assassin's Creed -on ever, on a misunderstanding ... Several months ago, as part of a study conducted for Stratfor, Rodger Baker and his team were interested in the possibility of a preemptive attack by the United States to remove the arsenal North Korean nuclear power plant. With this in mind, Rodger helped me imagine what might happen if North Korea decided to go on the attack one day. If you imagine American generals pressing multiple buttons to make the Kim country completely disappear from the face of the world, well, you are a very poor strategist. Step 1: The US understands what is going on well before the launch We can already say without too much wetting that a nuclear missile will not appear all at once on a North Korean launch base. If the country has several launch methods, the safest - and most obvious - would be to use a fixed launch tower. Salon Baker, such a choice would allow all intelligence services to prepare to counter the attack. North Korea has successfully launched missiles from a submarine recently, but such a strategy seems risky, as it would force a North Korean submarine to approach the coasts of the targeted country - Knowing that the North Korean submarines are in very bad condition. It would probably be preferable for Pyongyang to use a tractor-erector-launcher, or TEL, as a mobile vehicle to fire one or more missiles. "You see them often in movies," says Rodger Baker. If you use a TEL, you can launch a missile within one hour from the moment you take the missile out of its storage location. "North Korea has TEL - especially those bought from China in 2012 - and does not hesitate to highlight them during its military parades. Rodger Baker believes that an hour is ample time to be noticed by the US intelligence services - knowing that the country is being scrutinized by many sophisticated tools, including satellites. "Shortly after each test, the Americans and the Japanese asserted whether or not it was conclusive," Rodger recalls. If they are as fast, they are watching the launches live, when they are supposed to be secret. " According to Rodger Baker, it is hard to imagine that a North Korean nuclear attack could surprise the United States and its allies. "If an attack were to take place, all defense systems would be activated," says the specialist. Japanese ships carrying defensive missiles would immediately enter into action. " Place to Step 2. Stage 2: The United States and Japan launch a pre-emptive strike It is often said that the best defense is the attack. According to geopolitical specialists at George Washington University, if spies had evidence of the imminence of a North Korean nuclear attack, US officials would not hesitate to strike Pyongyang for a second before justifying the decision The United Nations through the argument of the "imminent threat to the security of the country". Such a decision would not even imply a decision of Donald Trump, according to Rodger Baker. "I am sure that a preemptive strike would be validated by the military, without necessarily going through the political power," he said. The problem would be to justify such a strike with certain international players, such as China, Russia and even South Korea. "If we approach the problem from a political perspective," says Rodger Baker, "it would be better to destroy the missile once in the air rather than on the ground. " It is unlikely, however, that the United States accepts that a North Korean missile will fly through the air for even a few seconds. Step 3: A missile is in the air Well, let's admit that the United States wants to avoid at all costs to hit North Korea directly on the ground. If, unfortunately, they fail to intercept the missile after its launch, and the missile leaves the atmosphere, it is unlikely that it will reach the United States. "The North Koreans seem capable of launching a missile leaving the atmosphere before returning there without being destroyed," says Baker. The trick is that this spillover is useless if the bomb is damaged in the process. "Roughly speaking, even if North Korea were to thwart the interception of its missile, it could be of no use as an intercontinental strike is unreliable given the technology in its possession. Afterwards, there would be the question of where the missile could end its race. Rodger Baker told me that the most "accessible" places - like Hawaii and Los Angeles - were not necessarily the only ones at risk. "You have to remember the map published a few years ago, with small lines from North Korea to Austin, for example," he recalls. Step 4: The US and Japan are attempting to shoot the missile before it hits the ground "Radars and satellite systems are permanently activated, looking for any thermal signature suggesting that a missile has been fired," explains Rodger Baker. For some time now, the United States has been thinking of installing a defense system called South African soil, called the THAAD, but in view of the current political instability in the Quiet Morning country, it appears unlikely In the very short term. Thus, if the missile is not intercepted by South Korea, everything suggests that it would be intercepted by Japan, which has a substantial and armed fleet for such an operation. But let's admit that the Japanese are missing and the missile is moving away towards the United States. In this case, the interception will have to be carried out by the American missile defense, based in Alaska. Unfortunately, this system is perfectible. "We can never be 100% sure of the effectiveness of our missile defense," says Rodger Baker. It would nevertheless be necessary to have a drastic combination of circumstances in order for North Korea to reach its goal. After that, it must be borne in mind that the military capabilities of the country are only increasing and that it is only a matter of time before Pyongyang is endowed with rather scary weapons, like missiles carrying many nuclear warheads Which would go in several directions. Step 5: China comes into play This is undoubtedly one of the reasons why Trump should go soft with China. According to Rodger Baker, it is quite possible that in the case of a North Korean attack, China will intervene to try to prevent the outbreak of a new Korean war. "China has already implied that in the event of a North Korean attack it would not hesitate to intervene militarily in the country and take control in Pyongyang in order to calm the game," said Rodger Baker. I think the Chinese know perfectly well that a world nuclear conflict would be disastrous for them, especially against the United States. " Other experts reject Baker's analysis and say China will not hesitate to support its North Korean ally. Joel S. Wit, a specialist in Korean-American relations at the John Hopkins School, said in the New York Times that a reversal of the jacket from the Chinese was unlikely. If Xi Jinping pushes his ally to abandon the nuclear weapon, he does not intend to isolate it. "A united and allied Korea in Washington would be very bad news for Beijing given the rivalry between the two superpowers in Asia," he wrote. Step 6: The United States replies, but does not raze North Korea Donald Trump said last April that he did not rule out the possibility of using nuclear weapons to eliminate the Islamic state. It could therefore be assumed that in the case of a successful North Korean attack, he would not hesitate to shave the country off the map. And yet, Rodger Baker doubted. "For me, it's unthinkable. North Korea is not a great military power, and the size of the Korean peninsula is reduced. Lifting an atomic bomb on the country would prevent its rapid revival and, above all, endanger South Korea, our ally. Instead of this strategy, Washington could focus on "the launch of a devastating cruise missile and then an air campaign to destroy all of the North Korean artillery on its southern border" The idea being to prevent Pyongyang from using its artillery and mobile missile launch systems. This would allow the United States to kneel the country without intervening directly in the region. Step 7: If there is war, North Korea will lose Now that both sides openly declared war, let's go back to the Stratfor study I mentioned earlier. In fact, "the early hours of the conflict will be critical for North Korea," said Baker. This is where it will have to use all its resources, including chemical weapons, to make any US or South Korean action on the ground impossible and to inflict maximum damage on the northern part of South Korea . Such a move would push the US to intensify its strikes - which would leave little hope in Pyongyang. "One can go forward without difficulty and say that in the event of a conflict between North Korea and the United States, or even a conflict between the two Koreas, the Kim dynasty would know its last hours, Concludes Rodger Baker Que se passerait-il si la Corée du Nord bombardait les États-Unis ?