No sign of race tightening

[DavidS]

regardless, they average the "leads" of each poll, which makes them no more or less reliable than any other poll. I didn't know if when you said "poll" you meant the number of points, of if they took the sample space of each poll.

You asked me about my core argument. I explained that I don't think polls are ALWAYS accurate. David S has stated in previous posts that the trends cannot be bucked. I said the race was tightening based on the numbers David S provided from polls he trusts. If you were to look at polls he posted three or four days ago, you would understand where I am coming from..

I posted state polls that have shown Obama actually INCREASE his lead from a week ago. State polls are what matters because it's the electoral college that matters.

 

[DavidS]

I know who you are. I was trying to explain where my original argument was coming from. It was coming from David S.'s beligerence. I guess I shouldn't have explained where it was coming from.

If you go to FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right and you actually look around and research it, you'll see how John McCain only has a 3.3% chance of winning. Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.

 

[elvis]

I posted state polls that have shown Obama actually INCREASE his lead from a week ago. State polls are what matters because it's the electoral college that matters.

the rasmussen numbers you quoted at the beginning of this thread indicate each of those states are very close to being within the margin of error.