MaggieMae
Reality bits
- Apr 3, 2009
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If Obama had not won the nomination, I would agree with you that he had only one vote, but he was the leader of the Democratic Party and the Dems held a clear majority in the House, so when the leader of the party put his credibility as a leader on the line in the middle of a presidential campaign by supporting TARP, the House Dems were not going to oppose him. On the other hand, had Obama opposed it, it unlikely enough Dems in the House would have passed it. At that time Obama's support for TARP held much more weight in Congress and with the public than Bush's support for it did, so to say Obama's responsibility for TARP's passage was only his one vote is just nonsense. The Bush administration's TARP proposal was dramatically rewritten by the Dems in Congress and even that Dem bill would not have passed if Obama had opposed it.
The policies that caused the financial meltdown, the deregulation of derivatives passed in 1999 when the Dems controlled the House and the WH and the Fed and FDIC policy of allowing banks to keep these derivatives as capital reserves were inherited by Bush from the Clinton administration, but I agree Bush can be blamed for not fixing this mess he inherited, but so can the Dems and Republicans in Congress for never addressing these policies everyone knew about.
The reason no one, Dem or Republican, tried to change these policies was that everyone understood that without all the credit these policies created our economy would not have been able to grow out the economic slowdown that followed the tech bubble bust and 9/11. The danger now is that Obama's policies that have not sufficiently recapitalized the banks to finance a recovery from the recession and that his financial regulations aimed at preventing another financial crisis might further prevent the financial system from creating enough capital for future growth. In fact, Obama has inherited the same problems Bush did, and it is not clear that he has any better ideas of what to do about it than Bush or Clinton did.
Good post.
A couple of things though. First, it was McCain who suspended his campaign to work on the TARP legislation but yes, Obama supported TARP but he wasn't driving the car or really giving orders. His support was more pedestrian than anything. Also, had Queen Nan not shot off her mouth TARP was going to be a piece of bipartisan legislation. She just had to talk shit and the republicans in Congress didn't vote for it out of spite towards her.
It sucks that the problem wasn't addressed by anybody until it was too late ... I'm not even sure it's being addressed now. At the time though it seemed like we were in the middle of an economic orgy. We were hearing about record setting closes of the DOW, housing was booming, and everyone's 401k was as sexy as a centerfold. It was too good to be true but all along we were hearing all about how strong the Bush economy was from pundits on the right. Now that it went to hell and times are bad they are desperately trying to sluff it off on Obama. That's just not gonna fly right now.
In your last paragraph you allude to fears that we wont have enough capital to allow for future growth. Are you suggesting that we give banks more money?
We can give the banks enough money to keep them, most of them, from failing, but we can't give them enough money to allow them to adequately finance a recovery from the recession or finance future growth. I believe Geithner said at one point that about 50% of the credit our economy was functioning on was raised by securitized debt, and now that these derivatives are considered "toxic" by so many, there is no longer much of a market for them. Obama-Geithner's efforts to revive those markets have so far failed to produce and significant results, and if we can't revive these markets or find new ways for our financial system to raise a great deal more capital, we are likely to have a very slow recovery from the recession and very slow future growth.
On the other hand, there is an understandable desire to have regulations to keep things from getting out of hand again, but we don't want these regulations to stifle the creation of new capital in the financial system.
The best idea I've heard for reviving the markets for financial products came from some House Republicans during the TARP debate, but it was shot down by Paulson because he thought it wouldn't work as quickly as his TARP proposal. (Ha!) The proposal was that the government would set up an insurance fund through which holders of these "toxic assets" could insure part or all of what they believed the value at maturity of these derivative would be, and the premiums they would pay would be based on an assessment of risk at that value. In theory, this would allow the banks to sell these insured derivatives to private buyers instead of having to hold them or sell them to the government, never a practical idea, and this mechanism might also serve to help financial institutions to sell new derivatives, thus enabling them to raise new capital.
From what I've read, there seems to be no clear agreement on how much new regulation we need or how much new regulation would be too much regulation.
The problem with the insurance for toxic assets proposed by Republicans is that these banks had no idea, none at all, the extent of the bad assets. So how could they possibly insure their value when they didn't even know what or where they were?
I also can mention here that banks are definitely lending again. I take care of the books and legal records for my condominium's homeowners association, and had to go to our bank (subsidiary of New Hampshire Thrift Bancshares, Inc., a publicly-traded holding company found on NASDAQ) to apply for an emergency $5,000 loan because a 100-foot pine tree fell causing damage to two units. Although they both have private property insurance, by the time the insurance companies figure out which "part" to cover for each resident, in the meantime the tree had to be removed by professionals and the roofs patched temporarily. The Association just didn't have that kind of money. No problem. I applied for the loan last Friday and the loan was approved on Wednesday.