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I do not think it is clear. I read it is the opposite. I think Joe was making an absolute statement, not one that infers from a prior thought.
I think Obama will lose.
President Romney.
I'd be fine with that too. I'm just thinking that the election favors the incumbent, and Romney has a lot of things that he's going to have to backpedal and try and explain away.
All true, but one of the best predictors of electoral success (supposedly) is the right/track wrong track poll, i.e. is America on on the right track or the wrong track? This poll has been "wrong track" by 40%-50% for the past two years now. This is enormous. I think he is very vulnerable. Romney is the best of a bad lot.
I'd be fine with that too. I'm just thinking that the election favors the incumbent, and Romney has a lot of things that he's going to have to backpedal and try and explain away.
All true, but one of the best predictors of electoral success (supposedly) is the right/track wrong track poll, i.e. is America on on the right track or the wrong track? This poll has been "wrong track" by 40%-50% for the past two years now. This is enormous. I think he is very vulnerable. Romney is the best of a bad lot.
I'm just not convinced that during these times past historical indicators are any sort of predictor of what may happen. Sure, the wrong track is polling between 40-50%, but what if they think Romney would be an even worse track?
I don't know, and I never make any "hard" predictions. I just think that it's an uphill battle for whomever the nominee will be. Too bad we can't combine Romney's morals and easy-going personality with Newt's intelligence.
All true, but one of the best predictors of electoral success (supposedly) is the right/track wrong track poll, i.e. is America on on the right track or the wrong track? This poll has been "wrong track" by 40%-50% for the past two years now. This is enormous. I think he is very vulnerable. Romney is the best of a bad lot.
I'm just not convinced that during these times past historical indicators are any sort of predictor of what may happen. Sure, the wrong track is polling between 40-50%, but what if they think Romney would be an even worse track?
I don't know, and I never make any "hard" predictions. I just think that it's an uphill battle for whomever the nominee will be. Too bad we can't combine Romney's morals and easy-going personality with Newt's intelligence.
I think its difficult to make predictions, so I have zero confidence in my predictions.
And my predictions are that the Republicans sweep everything next year.
Take it FWIW.
I disagree. He said no one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low. He did not say "no one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low 11 months before the general election. His statement about polling numbers does not include a time frame.
The context is in the previous sentence where he says "right now". In reading the post, it is clear that Joe was referring to a president being elected with an approval rating this low "right now"....11 months prior to the election.
I do not think it is clear. I read it is the opposite. I think Joe was making an absolute statement, not one that infers from a prior thought.
Keep in mind that historical factors don't really mean jack or squat anymore.
Personally, I think Obama will be reelected.
I think Obama will lose.
President Romney.
The context is in the previous sentence where he says "right now". In reading the post, it is clear that Joe was referring to a president being elected with an approval rating this low "right now"....11 months prior to the election.
I do not think it is clear. I read it is the opposite. I think Joe was making an absolute statement, not one that infers from a prior thought.
Keep in mind that historical factors don't really mean jack or squat anymore.
Personally, I think Obama will be reelected.
I think Obama will lose.
President Romney.
Well, if Obama is doomed, then seeing the nuts in the Tea Party and the rest of the crackpot right have to watch their foolish fantasies go up in the smoke of Romney victory would be a helluva consolation prize.
Wow, can't believe you guys spent a whole page speculating on what I meant.
Why didn't you just ask me what I meant?
Reagan's approval rating in Oct. 1983 was 45%.Oooookay, Corky, I know you are a little slow... that was his lowest point, nearly two years before the election. By the time the election rolled around, he was up above 50%.
What scenario do you see where Obama's approval rating gets higher than it is now. I see a lot of them where they get lower, most of them involving the imminent collapse of the Euro...
Move the goalpost all you want. I disproved your assertion.
No you didn't. January of '83 was 23 months before the election. Right now is around 11 months before the election.
He saidCarter, Ford, Bush-41, all had approval ratings of where Obama is right now. No one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low.
You'll have to post that Reagan's numbers were 35% 11 months prior to the election in order to disprove his assertion.
Good point - thanks for the vigilance.Move the goalpost all you want. I disproved your assertion.
No you didn't. January of '83 was 23 months before the election. Right now is around 11 months before the election.
He saidCarter, Ford, Bush-41, all had approval ratings of where Obama is right now. No one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low.
You'll have to post that Reagan's numbers were 35% 11 months prior to the election in order to disprove his assertion.
I disagree. He said no one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low. He did not say "no one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low 11 months before the general election. His statement about polling numbers does not include a time frame.
The Rude PunditThe New Hampshire Union Leader is just a Conservative NEWSPAPER, right...?
Reagan's approval rating in Oct. 1983 was 45%.Move the goalpost all you want. I disproved your assertion.
No you didn't. January of '83 was 23 months before the election. Right now is around 11 months before the election.
He saidCarter, Ford, Bush-41, all had approval ratings of where Obama is right now. No one has ever gotten re-elected with an approval rating this low.
You'll have to post that Reagan's numbers were 35% 11 months prior to the election in order to disprove his assertion.
Obama's is 44%, Reagan's was 45%. But keep parsing!Reagan's approval rating in Oct. 1983 was 45%.No you didn't. January of '83 was 23 months before the election. Right now is around 11 months before the election.
He said
You'll have to post that Reagan's numbers were 35% 11 months prior to the election in order to disprove his assertion.
Not 35%
Obama's is 44%, Reagan's was 45%. But keep parsing!
Good for them.
Reagan's approval rating in Oct. 1983 was 45%.You'll have to post that Reagan's numbers were 35% 11 months prior to the election in order to disprove his assertion.
The paper didn't endorse Mr. Romney when he ran for president in 2008 and has criticized him over the years. The Romney campaign had no comment Sunday about the newspaper's endorsement.
While the Union Leader's nod is a prized catch for any Republican candidate, the newspaper has a spotty record for picking winners, even in New Hampshire. Among its losing candidates were Pete DuPont in 1988, Pat Buchanan in 1992 and Steve Forbes in 2000.
"While it helps Gingrich plant a foothold in the state, this is not the miracle drug the campaign needs to beat Romney's support and organization," said Ron Bonjean, a Republican political strategist.
"The paper does not have a solid track record of endorsing the actual Republican nominee," Mr. Bonjean said.
Incidently...
Presidential Approval for President Reagan
Date Organization * Approve Disapprove No Opinion Sample
12/9-12/83 Gallup 54 38 8 1510
11/18-21/83 Gallup 53 37 10 1504
10/21-24/83 Gallup 49 41 10 1549
10/7-10/83 Gallup 45 44 11 1503
Now you weren't trying to pull a fast one on us, where you Pee-Wee. By taking a number before the Grenada invastion gave Reagan a boost that lasted throughout the rest of his administation..
Incidently...
Presidential Approval for President Reagan
Date Organization * Approve Disapprove No Opinion Sample
12/9-12/83 Gallup 54 38 8 1510
11/18-21/83 Gallup 53 37 10 1504
10/21-24/83 Gallup 49 41 10 1549
10/7-10/83 Gallup 45 44 11 1503
Now you weren't trying to pull a fast one on us, where you Pee-Wee. By taking a number before the Grenada invastion gave Reagan a boost that lasted throughout the rest of his administation..
I took the one I bolded. October 1983.
So are you saying that Obama should invade another country to get his approval ratings up?
