Next Tea Party Targets
After conservative upsets in Indiana and Nebraska, these GOP senators should fear primary challenges in 2014
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina): Graham, a long-time irritant to national conservative leaders, is the face of the compromise-friendly approach to governing that the GOP base is revolting against. And South Carolina is arguably ground zero for the Tea Party revolt, home of Sen. Jim DeMint and the four horsemen quartet of true believer House freshmen. Any of them could be a viable primary foe against Graham (and one of them, Trey Gowdy, already beat an incumbent, then-Rep. Bob Inglis, by 42 points in a 2010 primary). Graham has said he expects to get a primary challenge, which seems inarguable.
Saxby Chambliss (Georgia): Chambliss, too, says he expects a primary. His voting record is reliably conservative (a career mark of over 90 percent from the ACU), but he was part of the bipartisan Gang of 6 deficit reduction negotiations last year and argued that tax increases had to be part of the mix.
Lamar Alexander (Tennessee): His reputation as a moderate has never quite matched up with his voting record, but the 71-year-old Alexander seems cut from the same cloth as Lugar collegial manner, lots of talk of cooperation with the other side, occasional breaks with party orthodoxy, and a voting record thats reliably Republican overall. But his age, his image, and his decades in state and national politics (he was governor from 1979 to 1987 and ran for president in 1996 and 2000) make him particularly vulnerable to an anti-establishment uprising. Alexander could take some consolation from the fact that his fellow Tennessee senator, Bob Corker, escaped a serious primary challenge this year.
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky): One of McConnells biggest humiliations came in 2010, when he threw his vaunted home state political operation behind Trey Grayson, only to watch his protégé lose the GOP Senate primary to Rand Paul. A five-term incumbent, the 70-year-old McConnell reeks of Washington insiderdom, so theres plenty of speculation that hell be a primary season target. But theres good news for McConnell: Paul is now on board with his 14 reelection effort, and other veterans of Pauls 10 campaign are sending similar signals. For now, McConnell seems to be in good shape, but as the Senates GOP leader, theres always a chance his fingerprints will end up on a legislative compromise that infuriates the base.
Pat Roberts (Kansas): Hes old (76) and has been on Capitol Hill for 32 years the first 16 in the House and the last 16 in the Senate. Hes also a quiet, behind-the-scenes player whose voting record is only now evolving to synch up with the GOP bases prevailing mood. It wouldnt be too hard for an opponent to portray Roberts as a tired insider with Potomac Fever. Plus, the Kansas Republican Party is unusually prone to civil war. Roberts could provide an inviting target for, say, Kris Kobach, the youthful Kansas secretary of state who has become the leading national voice of the anti-immigration right.
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More at the link.
After conservative upsets in Indiana and Nebraska, these GOP senators should fear primary challenges in 2014
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina): Graham, a long-time irritant to national conservative leaders, is the face of the compromise-friendly approach to governing that the GOP base is revolting against. And South Carolina is arguably ground zero for the Tea Party revolt, home of Sen. Jim DeMint and the four horsemen quartet of true believer House freshmen. Any of them could be a viable primary foe against Graham (and one of them, Trey Gowdy, already beat an incumbent, then-Rep. Bob Inglis, by 42 points in a 2010 primary). Graham has said he expects to get a primary challenge, which seems inarguable.
Saxby Chambliss (Georgia): Chambliss, too, says he expects a primary. His voting record is reliably conservative (a career mark of over 90 percent from the ACU), but he was part of the bipartisan Gang of 6 deficit reduction negotiations last year and argued that tax increases had to be part of the mix.
Lamar Alexander (Tennessee): His reputation as a moderate has never quite matched up with his voting record, but the 71-year-old Alexander seems cut from the same cloth as Lugar collegial manner, lots of talk of cooperation with the other side, occasional breaks with party orthodoxy, and a voting record thats reliably Republican overall. But his age, his image, and his decades in state and national politics (he was governor from 1979 to 1987 and ran for president in 1996 and 2000) make him particularly vulnerable to an anti-establishment uprising. Alexander could take some consolation from the fact that his fellow Tennessee senator, Bob Corker, escaped a serious primary challenge this year.
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky): One of McConnells biggest humiliations came in 2010, when he threw his vaunted home state political operation behind Trey Grayson, only to watch his protégé lose the GOP Senate primary to Rand Paul. A five-term incumbent, the 70-year-old McConnell reeks of Washington insiderdom, so theres plenty of speculation that hell be a primary season target. But theres good news for McConnell: Paul is now on board with his 14 reelection effort, and other veterans of Pauls 10 campaign are sending similar signals. For now, McConnell seems to be in good shape, but as the Senates GOP leader, theres always a chance his fingerprints will end up on a legislative compromise that infuriates the base.
Pat Roberts (Kansas): Hes old (76) and has been on Capitol Hill for 32 years the first 16 in the House and the last 16 in the Senate. Hes also a quiet, behind-the-scenes player whose voting record is only now evolving to synch up with the GOP bases prevailing mood. It wouldnt be too hard for an opponent to portray Roberts as a tired insider with Potomac Fever. Plus, the Kansas Republican Party is unusually prone to civil war. Roberts could provide an inviting target for, say, Kris Kobach, the youthful Kansas secretary of state who has become the leading national voice of the anti-immigration right.
*snip*
More at the link.
