Newt Might Have the Nomination Locked by April 4th

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JimBowie1958, Jan 22, 2012.

  1. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

    By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

    I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

    Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

    Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

    That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

    I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

    I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.
     
  2. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    It's possible, but the scenario is not at all likely.
     
  3. candycorn
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    candycorn Alis volat propriis

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    You think Newt has Florida? Curious...why?
     
  4. C_Clayton_Jones
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    C_Clayton_Jones Diamond Member

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    Anything’s ‘possible.’

    Once the primary moves into the larger, more populated and diverse states, we’ll see Romney the nominee.
     
  5. Defiant1
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    Defiant1 Gold Member

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    If true, this will assure Obama's second term.
     
  6. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Why?

    Seems he and Romney will split much of the North, but Romney seems uncompetitive in the South, judging from his poor showing in S Carolina. It wont be long till Santorum drops out, and Gingrich will draw all the Reaganites, Romney will draw the old Rockefellerites and Paul the libertarians.

    You apply that to the calendar and April 3rd is Doomsday for Romney as I dont see him taking any of the three winner take all states, especially not Texas.

    After that Gingrich will have over 800 delegates to a paltry 200-ish for Romney.

    April 24 Romney picks up some when most of the New England states and New York vote, but Gingrich gets Pennsylvania to keep it from being a sweep.

    Then May 8 Gingrich wins N Carolina, W Virginia, Indiana, and Nebraska, Arkansas and Oregon by the end of the month. That puts Gingrich well over the 1144 or so needed to win.
     
  7. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Why?
     
  8. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    I think that now that Romney's record has been more closely scrutinized and exposed in counter-attack ads, he will see many voters alienated from him. And now that he cannot claim to be the inevitable candidate, he will lose many of the opportunists that are always seeking the best wagon to hitch their stars to each election. Also, undecided have been breaking heavily in Gingrichs favor, but that would only pad his numbers more as I think he will have enough in predominately Reagan conservative states.

    Thinking Romney drops by 10 since he isnt inevitable after all, Gingrich picks up 3 from Perry's old support, and Santorum coughs up about 15. That would put Gingrich at around 38% with Romney around 30%.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2012
  9. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    But not everything is plausible or probable.

    Yes and most of the winner take all states are coming up and Gingrich's wins will snowball his delegate count much faster.

    Momentum in these things can be a bitch.
     
  10. Missourian
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    Newt will win Florida.

    Newt will take Texas.

    Wisconsin is much more moderate...but the current recall efforts will have the based stirred up....if Gingrich has momentum, he could take it...especially after Romney's gaff in Ohio.

    Maryland...technically a Southern state, but with a culture much more in tune with the Northeast...may go to Romney, even if Newt has the wind at his back.

    Missouri has a non binding primary Feb. 7th...it goes overwhelmingly to Gingrich.
     

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