Newt Might Have the Nomination Locked by April 4th

[JimBowie1958]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

 

[JakeStarkey]

It's possible, but the scenario is not at all likely.

 

[candycorn]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

You think Newt has Florida? Curious...why?

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

It's possible, but the scenario is not at all likely.

Anything’s ‘possible.’

Once the primary moves into the larger, more populated and diverse states, we’ll see Romney the nominee.

 

[Defiant1]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

If true, this will assure Obama's second term.

 

[JimBowie1958]

It's possible, but the scenario is not at all likely.

Why?

Seems he and Romney will split much of the North, but Romney seems uncompetitive in the South, judging from his poor showing in S Carolina. It wont be long till Santorum drops out, and Gingrich will draw all the Reaganites, Romney will draw the old Rockefellerites and Paul the libertarians.

You apply that to the calendar and April 3rd is Doomsday for Romney as I dont see him taking any of the three winner take all states, especially not Texas.

After that Gingrich will have over 800 delegates to a paltry 200-ish for Romney.

April 24 Romney picks up some when most of the New England states and New York vote, but Gingrich gets Pennsylvania to keep it from being a sweep.

Then May 8 Gingrich wins N Carolina, W Virginia, Indiana, and Nebraska, Arkansas and Oregon by the end of the month. That puts Gingrich well over the 1144 or so needed to win.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

If true, this will assure Obama's second term.

Why?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

You think Newt has Florida? Curious...why?

I think that now that Romney's record has been more closely scrutinized and exposed in counter-attack ads, he will see many voters alienated from him. And now that he cannot claim to be the inevitable candidate, he will lose many of the opportunists that are always seeking the best wagon to hitch their stars to each election. Also, undecided have been breaking heavily in Gingrichs favor, but that would only pad his numbers more as I think he will have enough in predominately Reagan conservative states.

Thinking Romney drops by 10 since he isnt inevitable after all, Gingrich picks up 3 from Perry's old support, and Santorum coughs up about 15. That would put Gingrich at around 38% with Romney around 30%.

 

[JimBowie1958]

It's possible, but the scenario is not at all likely.

Anything’s ‘possible.’

But not everything is plausible or probable.

Once the primary moves into the larger, more populated and diverse states, we’ll see Romney the nominee.

Yes and most of the winner take all states are coming up and Gingrich's wins will snowball his delegate count much faster.

Momentum in these things can be a bitch.

 

[Missourian]

Newt will win Florida.

Newt will take Texas.

Wisconsin is much more moderate...but the current recall efforts will have the based stirred up....if Gingrich has momentum, he could take it...especially after Romney's gaff in Ohio.

Maryland...technically a Southern state, but with a culture much more in tune with the Northeast...may go to Romney, even if Newt has the wind at his back.

Missouri has a non binding primary Feb. 7th...it goes overwhelmingly to Gingrich.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

If true, this will assure Obama's second term.

Why?

Because the republican nominee will need a significant number of democratic votes, mostly from '‘Reagan democrats’ and others who voted for Obama in 2008.

All democrats hate Gingrich, even the ‘Reagan democrats.’ Gingrich is too polarizing and divisive.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Romney has by far the better organization, at this point, and more money. I suspect the latter will change for Newt depending how well he does in Florida. My Democratic neighbors are thrilled with a Newt-Barak election, saying they had thought the election would be much harder. They are grateful for super big favors, and that is how they view Newt.

 

[Defiant1]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

If true, this will assure Obama's second term.

Why?

Because independents and moderate democrats don't like Newt.

 

[Wacky Quacky]

If Newt does win the GOP will have to abandon many its claims. The party of family values, gone. The party of small government, gone. Party that defends the constitution, gone. But hey, I guess beating Obama is more important than all of that. Republicans are willing to turn their backs on the country and everything they stand for, just to beat Obama.

 

[candycorn]

Romney has by far the better organization, at this point, and more money. I suspect the latter will change for Newt depending how well he does in Florida. My Democratic neighbors are thrilled with a Newt-Barak election, saying they had thought the election would be much harder. They are grateful for super big favors, and that is how they view Newt.

It doesn't mean much but the GOP delegate count in Florida seems to have been cut in half by the RNC...

GOP to punish Florida at nominating convention for holding early primary
Published January 11, 2012 | FoxNews.com
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Florida's delegates to the Republican National Convention are getting snubbed in their own house, after the national GOP decided Wednesday to ramp up penalties on the state for holding an early primary in violation of party rules.
Though Florida is hosting the party's national convention in Tampa later this year, a Republican National Committee panel voted unanimously to give the state's representatives second-class access to the whole affair.
Under the resolution, the national party will make sure Florida's delegates have poor seating and poor hotel options -- as in, hotels that are not close to the Tampa Bay Times Forum, the convention venue. According to an RNC official, the delegates will also be limited in the number of guest passes they can hand out.
The Rules Committee voted for the sanctions Wednesday, and the RNC official said no further action is needed to carry out the punishment.
"They will be penalized with reduced guest passes, reduced priority seating on the floor and hotels further away," the official told Fox News.
A Florida Republican official claimed the national party still has to take one more step to finalize the penalties, but suggested there would be no hard feelings going into November. The official said the state party will "do nothing but (commit) ourselves to making sure that a Republican wins the state of Florida."
The latest penalties would come on top of the hit the Sunshine State already took to its delegate count.

The state is expected to lose half its 99 delegates as a result of its decision to hold the Republican presidential primary on Jan. 31.

Under RNC rules, Florida was not supposed to hold what's known as a "winner-take-all" primary before April. That's a primary in which all the state's delegates are awarded to the winner, as opposed to one in which the delegates are awarded proportionally.


The very beginning of the 2012 primary calendar is also supposed to be reserved for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. Florida's decision to get in on the early primary action follows a similar move in 2008, and a similar punishment by the RNC.
Leonard Curry, chairman of the Florida GOP, said in a statement that he's hoping to move forward despite the new penalties.


"I understand why today's vote took place and we will continue to work to protect Florida Republicans' interest at the national convention," Curry said. "With today's action, I hope that all Republicans can move together, unified and committed to the most important goal we have -- the election of a Republican president in 2012."
When the state party first announced the date in September, Curry said the early vote "properly reflects the importance Florida will play on the national stage."

A true swing state, Florida, with its 29 delegates to the Electoral College, is considered essential to win the general election. Barack Obama won the state in 2008.
Fox News' Jake Gibson and FoxNews.com's Judson Berger contributed to this report.


Read more: GOP To Punish Florida At Nominating Convention For Holding Early Primary | Fox News

It's about momentum right now but in the end...it may not make a difference either way.

 

[candycorn]

If Newt does win the GOP will have to abandon many its claims. The party of family values, gone. The party of small government, gone. Party that defends the constitution, gone. But hey, I guess beating Obama is more important than all of that. Republicans are willing to turn their backs on the country and everything they stand for, just to beat Obama.

You could be right about that. However, given the very casual relationship that Newt has with honesty, morality, character, etc...a Gingrich Presidency could hold anything in store. I'm sure it would be a trip back to the Dark Ages.

 

[Amelia]

Looking at the calendar and adding things up, if Gingrich wins Florida which would seem very probable now, he will have momentum to carry most delegates in the South.

By April 3rd when Texas, Wisconsin and Maryland hold winner take all primaries, it seems that Newt will have a substantial lead on Romney and Paul.

I think Texas will go for Newt easily since it is a heavily Reaganite state and Newt polls high among self-described Reaganites, and that is 155 delegates.

Wisconsin I think will go for Newt because of Romneys association with corporate raiding which has a very bad name in Union states.

Maryland has many Newt friends located there and my bet is that Gingrich will win there as well.

That will be 237 delegates in one day and put Gingrich within a couple of hundred delegates of taking the nomination. At that point the opportunists and sycophants will jump on the Gingrich bandwagon and the whole shaboo is over at that point.

I am not saying Gingrich has it for sure, but I would give him a 2:1 likelihood of winning it all right now due to his strength in the South, labor states and Western states as he appeals to the Reagan traditonalists and the Reagan Democrats both.

I feel much better about my countries future now that it seems Romney is less likely to win the nomination.

Lovely to hear that keeping Romney out of office is so important to you that you will keep Obama in for four more years.



I don't see any way that a majority of America will pull the switch for this:

over this:

Pretty sad when the Democrats become the party of Family Values.

And there isn't anything else Newt has to offer which would beat what Obama brings to the plate.


Romney has economic know-how.

Newt has ???

 

[JimBowie1958]

If true, this will assure Obama's second term.

Why?

Because the republican nominee will need a significant number of democratic votes, mostly from '‘Reagan democrats’ and others who voted for Obama in 2008.

All democrats hate Gingrich, even the ‘Reagan democrats.’ Gingrich is too polarizing and divisive.

Obviously, I disagree.

I thinnk the hate for Gingrich is mostly among the Dem leadership and is very shallow among the people on the street.

Gingrich has a message pitched to the ear of working class Reaganites and it would seem to be working. I think it will pull a significant number of Reagan Dems.

But I also disagree that the GOP candidate has to draw the center. All the GOP winners since 1972 have run hard to the conservative populist base and staye dthere and won.

This is because 45% of the elctorate is self-described conservative, and the moderates are about 35% and liberals about 20%. In years the GOP has lost they had about as many conservative turn out as liberals, which means that most conservatives simply stayed home.

For the GOP to win it needs to energize its base and take only a third of the moderates (which really isnt that hard) and they win.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Non-Republicans en toto and quite a few Republicans despise your guy, Jim.

 

[Amelia]

If true, this will assure Obama's second term.

Why?

Because the republican nominee will need a significant number of democratic votes, mostly from '‘Reagan democrats’ and others who voted for Obama in 2008.

All democrats hate Gingrich, even the ‘Reagan democrats.’ Gingrich is too polarizing and divisive.

Obviously, I disagree.

I thinnk the hate for Gingrich is mostly among the Dem leadership and is very shallow among the people on the street.

Gingrich has a message pitched to the ear of working class Reaganites and it would seem to be working. I think it will pull a significant number of Reagan Dems.

But I also disagree that the GOP candidate has to draw the center. All the GOP winners since 1972 have run hard to the conservative populist base and staye dthere and won.

This is because 45% of the elctorate is self-described conservative, and the moderates are about 35% and liberals about 20%. In years the GOP has lost they had about as many conservative turn out as liberals, which means that most conservatives simply stayed home.

For the GOP to win it needs to energize its base and take only a third of the moderates (which really isnt that hard) and they win.

Gingrich run could bring up bad memories for former colleagues - The Washington Post



I don't think the hate (queasiness) is as shallow as you think.

I know I'm feeling quite nauseous today thinking about Newt.