New York state manufacturing plunges: NY Fed

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Trajan, Nov 15, 2010.

  1. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    so, is this just a lone tree in the forest?...or a true bellwether indicator with legs?

    To say this doesn't bode well is stating the obvious. The not so obvious, Q4 buoyed by holiday sales is always our best Q. Orders for the holidays have been in and manufactures have been working on them for weeks/months, this is all factored in by now.

    It appears that we won't be seeing the inventory replenishment blip nearly so high as we did last year Q4 2009 GDP 5.6% ( downgraded to 5.%) or Q1 2010 ( started at 3.3% downgraded to 2.7%).
    2.5%-3% normally acceptable in a healthy econ.just rolling along is fine, In an economy with 9.6 % unemployment , here and now, 17 months out from the recessions, its Iron lung territory.



    As mistaken forecasts go, this is pretty much an order of magnitude ......forget being in ballpark, they aint in the right state.



    New York state manufacturing plunges: NY Fed

    New York state manufacturing unexpectedly plunged in November, the first contraction since July 2009 when the US economy exited recession, official data showed Monday.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported its manufacturing activity index dropped to minus 11.1 points in November, from a positive 15.7 points in the previous month.

    The Empire State Manufacturing Survey index is considered a bellwether of the manufacturing sector which has been a key strength in the economic recovery.


    The new orders index plummeted to minus 24.4 points, from positive 12.9 points in October.


    more...
    New York state manufacturing plunges: NY Fed - Yahoo! Singapore Finance
     
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    Last edited: Nov 15, 2010
  2. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    This is the start of the double dip
     
  3. iamwhatiseem
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    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

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    It does not bode well in that we are in the middle of the earnings season.

    As a print manufacturer...
    August, Sept and October were a great relief.
    Our sales across the revenue lines rose between 20-40% across the board comparing to Jan-July.
    November is not as good, better than the first 6 months - but I am going to say about a 10% fall in revenue over the last 3 months.
    One thing to keep in mind, in printing, Oct-November and March are typically the best months of the year. A revenue fall in November has me concerned for Dec-February.
     

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