New Time Poll

[Annie]

Same results:

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,695528,00.html

Presidential choice question based on likely voters. All other results, unless noted, based on registered voters. Telephone interviewing was conducted September 7 – 9

Last week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush showed no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters by double digits, 52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last week.

Putting this into perspective, just a month ago, post-Democratic convention, the Time Poll had Kerry with a statistically significant lead over Bush, 48% - 43%.

[...]

Troubling for Kerry is that the Republicans have continued to shift the nation's agenda toward terrorism, a Bush stronghold, and away from the economy, as the voters’ decisive issue. Terrorism is now at 26%, up 8 points from early August, among registered voters. Republicans, both at the New York convention last week and since, have pounded Kerry on the terrorism issue. The economy, long a Kerry strength, has slipped to second place, at 24%, down 3 points since early August among registered voters.

Most important Issues in Vote Decision

(Registered Voters)


Sept.7-Sept.9
Aug. 31-Sept. 2
Aug. 3-5
Jul. 20-22

War on Terrorism
26%
24%
18%
18%

Economy
24%
25%
27%
27%

Situation in Iraq
17%
17%
19%
21%

Moral Values Issues
17%
16%
18%
16%

Health Care
9%
11%
11%
2%






Even more damaging to Kerry is that Bush now has a 6 point lead on handling of the economy, 50% - 44%. Just one month ago, Kerry had the edge, 51% - 42%.

Bush has also taken commanding leads over Kerry on handing of the following issues:

War on terrorism: Bush is up 23 percentage points over Kerry, 58% - 35%, compared to an 8 point lead in early August.
Situation in Iraq: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a 2 point edge in early August.
Commander in Chief: Bush is up 20 points over Kerry, 57% - 37%, compared to a tie in early August.
Kerry now has only a small edge on health care, 47% - 42%, falling from an 18 point margin in early August. He’s now just even up with Bush, 47% Bush – 44% Kerry, on “understanding the needs of people like yourself,” after leading Bush by 15 points in early August.



Key Electability Indicators

Bush’s ratings on three key questions tied to electability have risen in recent weeks, but Bush still gets tentative scores on two of the three.

Job rating: Bush is now at 56% approve – 41% disapprove, solidly above the 50% historical threshold for re-electing incumbents. A month ago, he was up only 5 points, with his favorability just at 50%.

Deserves re-election?: Bush has cracked the 50% mark for the first time in recent Poll history, with 52% saying he deserves re-election, while 45% saying it’s time for someone new. Just a month ago, Bush was down by 12 points on deserving re-election.

Right Direction?: Voters are now almost evenly divided on whether the country is headed in the right direction or on the wrong track, 46% - 49%. However that’s up from 44% right direction – 51% wrong track in early August.

[...]

 

[JIHADTHIS]

Troubling for Kerry is that the Republicans have continued to shift the nation's agenda toward terrorism,

I don't think it's so much "Republicans have continued to shift the nation's agenda" as it is current events (Beslan, 9/11 anniversary), and Kerry looking more and more like the dead man walking that he really is.........

My 2 bits

 

[Annie]

I don't think it's so much "Republicans have continued to shift the nation's agenda" as it is current events (Beslan, 9/11 anniversary), and Kerry looking more and more like the dead man walking that he really is.........

My 2 bits

I've always felt it's the electorate that drives the election issues, with the exception of advertising.

 

[musicman]

I've always felt it's the electorate that drives the election issues, with the exception of advertising.

I'm beginning to come around to that way of thinking as well. It had distressed me in the past that success in politics seemed to come down to who had the biggest advertising budget. That said bad things to me about the public's state of informed-ness(if there's such a word) - giving creedence to the old adage, "The endless repitition of a demonstrable lie will turn it into a demonstrable truth"(Hitler, among others). This year's events have given me reason to hope.

 

[Annie]

I'm beginning to come around to that way of thinking as well. It had distressed me in the past that success in politics seemed to come down to who had the biggest advertising budget. That said bad things to me about the public's state of informed-ness(if there's such a word) - giving creedence to the old adage, "The endless repitition of a demonstrable lie will turn it into a demonstrable truth"(Hitler, among others). This year's events have given me reason to hope.

Well people I think could do without any advertising, but that would be wishing for too much. Even the advertising is somewhat driven by the electorate, too harsh, turns them off. Yet negative wins, probably for the same reason as sarcasm on the board?

I really do believe the American people, especially in times of national stress, do pick the right person for the time. You see the screw ups come in periods of 'calm.'

 

[musicman]

I agree. We seem to be able to "step up" when we have to.