preemptingyou03
Member
- Mar 18, 2004
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Last night I received another email from Thomas P.M. Barnett regarding a convention he is holding in Rhode Island this upcoming month. The convention is for a game he has organized in which corporate leaders, military strategists, and politicians try to find a geopolitical or geostrategic solution to the world's problems. Pretty interesting.
Here is the site: http://newmapgame.com/
Anyway, this site had me thinking about previous conflicts that the United States either did not participate in or did not participate in to the fullest extent. I can trace this back to Vietnam, when we should have launched an amphibious assault on North Vietnam, collapsing the NVA and the NV regime, while allowing special forces to go after the VC. This would have prevented, quite possibly, Pol Pot's rise to power and we would have saved over 750,000 South Vietnamese lives and about 1.8 million Cambodian lives. All in all, we could have won in Vietnam by 1967 if we had done it correctly.
But forget that. We could have accomplished a lot in the past two decades if we knew what the future would behold. Democratization in the Middle East should have begun earlier. Let's start with Reagan and move on. I'm interested if anyone else would like to try this game:
1983: Lebanon - Over 300 people are killed by suicide bombers, including many Marines. The United States remains in Lebanon, pushes Syrian troops out, and allows the Lebanese people to hold free and fair elections. Reagan then declares a free Lebanon will be an example to Syrians, and Reagan declares Palestinians should have their own independent state. Israel starts to withdraw from Palestinian territories.
1989: Libya - After Bush comes into office, he quickly assembles a strategy to retaliate against Libya for sponsoring the late 1988 attack on Pan Am Flight 103 in which 270 people are killed. The United States launches an amphibious assault on Tripoli (right on the coast) and overthrows Qaddafi's brutal regime within weeks. Libyans hold free and fair elections; the United States maintains bases in Libya, cutting ties with Mubarak in Egypt until he begins to reform.
1989: Panama - After trying to do to Manuel Noriega what we had done to Anastasio Somoza of Nicaragua and Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, we retake the canal just the way we did in reality.
1991: Iraq - After pushing Saddam out of Kuwait, we continue to Baghdad with 500,000 forces coming in from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and perhaps from Syria (which supported the war and might have been democratic had we stayed in Lebanon in 1983). Saddam falls. We continue to take casualties in Iraq (and perhaps Libya, still) for a little while. Iraqis hold free and fair elections. Our relationship with a Saddam-less democratic Iraq throughout the 1990s replaces our relationship with the Saudi Royal Family: we have bases in Iraq and our oil comes from there, not Arabia. This does not inflame Islamist fundamentalists as much as our presence in the Holy Land does. This allows us to start pushing towards democratic reform in Iran early, about a decade and a half before Iran is even close to having nuclear weapons. Tens of thousands of Iraqi lives are saved. The war in 2003 does not happen.
1992: Somalia - We do not withdraw from Somalia. Rather, we stay and get Aidid, dismantling his militia. This means no Black Hawk Down. Over 300,000 lives are saved. This probably also means no Bill Clinton. But regardless, say Clinton wins in 1992.
1994: Rwanda - We intervene and stop the genocide; over 800,000 people are saved.
1995: Serbia - We remove the Serbian regime from power. Genocide in Bosnia is stopped; 200,000 people are saved. Genocide and war in Kosovo does not happen in 1999.
1996: Sudan - We accept Sudan's offer of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Muhammed Atef. We arrest them and we execute them. This means, quite possibly, al-Qaeda attacks in 1998, 2000, and yes, 9/11, do not happen. (This doesn't mean Islamist fundamentalism would have been defeated there and then, though).
1998: Afghanistan - (If we do not accept Sudan's offer) we then retaliate against the Taliban regime and al-Qaeda inside Afghanistan after over 200 people are killed in Africa. We overthrow the Taliban regime with relatively a light footprint just like we did in reality.
By the end of the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George Bush, and Bill Clinton:
- Lebanon is a democracy with American forces present
- Palestine is a democratic state living next to Israel in peace
- Egypt reforms due to American presence in Libya; both are democratic states
- Iraq and Iran are democracies, Iran does not have nukes, Saudi Arabia is pressured from all angles to reform, war in Iraq in 2003 does not happen
- Over three million people are saved in our interventions in Somalia, Rwanda, and Serbia; wars in Bosnia and Kosovo subsequently do not happen
- Afghanistan is a democratic state, the Taliban and al-Qaeda are engaged in 1998, 9/11 does not happen, war in Afghanistan in 2001 does not happen
Here is the site: http://newmapgame.com/
Anyway, this site had me thinking about previous conflicts that the United States either did not participate in or did not participate in to the fullest extent. I can trace this back to Vietnam, when we should have launched an amphibious assault on North Vietnam, collapsing the NVA and the NV regime, while allowing special forces to go after the VC. This would have prevented, quite possibly, Pol Pot's rise to power and we would have saved over 750,000 South Vietnamese lives and about 1.8 million Cambodian lives. All in all, we could have won in Vietnam by 1967 if we had done it correctly.
But forget that. We could have accomplished a lot in the past two decades if we knew what the future would behold. Democratization in the Middle East should have begun earlier. Let's start with Reagan and move on. I'm interested if anyone else would like to try this game:
1983: Lebanon - Over 300 people are killed by suicide bombers, including many Marines. The United States remains in Lebanon, pushes Syrian troops out, and allows the Lebanese people to hold free and fair elections. Reagan then declares a free Lebanon will be an example to Syrians, and Reagan declares Palestinians should have their own independent state. Israel starts to withdraw from Palestinian territories.
1989: Libya - After Bush comes into office, he quickly assembles a strategy to retaliate against Libya for sponsoring the late 1988 attack on Pan Am Flight 103 in which 270 people are killed. The United States launches an amphibious assault on Tripoli (right on the coast) and overthrows Qaddafi's brutal regime within weeks. Libyans hold free and fair elections; the United States maintains bases in Libya, cutting ties with Mubarak in Egypt until he begins to reform.
1989: Panama - After trying to do to Manuel Noriega what we had done to Anastasio Somoza of Nicaragua and Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, we retake the canal just the way we did in reality.
1991: Iraq - After pushing Saddam out of Kuwait, we continue to Baghdad with 500,000 forces coming in from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and perhaps from Syria (which supported the war and might have been democratic had we stayed in Lebanon in 1983). Saddam falls. We continue to take casualties in Iraq (and perhaps Libya, still) for a little while. Iraqis hold free and fair elections. Our relationship with a Saddam-less democratic Iraq throughout the 1990s replaces our relationship with the Saudi Royal Family: we have bases in Iraq and our oil comes from there, not Arabia. This does not inflame Islamist fundamentalists as much as our presence in the Holy Land does. This allows us to start pushing towards democratic reform in Iran early, about a decade and a half before Iran is even close to having nuclear weapons. Tens of thousands of Iraqi lives are saved. The war in 2003 does not happen.
1992: Somalia - We do not withdraw from Somalia. Rather, we stay and get Aidid, dismantling his militia. This means no Black Hawk Down. Over 300,000 lives are saved. This probably also means no Bill Clinton. But regardless, say Clinton wins in 1992.
1994: Rwanda - We intervene and stop the genocide; over 800,000 people are saved.
1995: Serbia - We remove the Serbian regime from power. Genocide in Bosnia is stopped; 200,000 people are saved. Genocide and war in Kosovo does not happen in 1999.
1996: Sudan - We accept Sudan's offer of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Muhammed Atef. We arrest them and we execute them. This means, quite possibly, al-Qaeda attacks in 1998, 2000, and yes, 9/11, do not happen. (This doesn't mean Islamist fundamentalism would have been defeated there and then, though).
1998: Afghanistan - (If we do not accept Sudan's offer) we then retaliate against the Taliban regime and al-Qaeda inside Afghanistan after over 200 people are killed in Africa. We overthrow the Taliban regime with relatively a light footprint just like we did in reality.
By the end of the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George Bush, and Bill Clinton:
- Lebanon is a democracy with American forces present
- Palestine is a democratic state living next to Israel in peace
- Egypt reforms due to American presence in Libya; both are democratic states
- Iraq and Iran are democracies, Iran does not have nukes, Saudi Arabia is pressured from all angles to reform, war in Iraq in 2003 does not happen
- Over three million people are saved in our interventions in Somalia, Rwanda, and Serbia; wars in Bosnia and Kosovo subsequently do not happen
- Afghanistan is a democratic state, the Taliban and al-Qaeda are engaged in 1998, 9/11 does not happen, war in Afghanistan in 2001 does not happen
