Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama

[Dr.House]

So, his promise... wasn't 'really' a promise.

It was a 'Well, IF this happens, and SHOULD this occur, I MAY be able to cut the deficit in half in my 1st term'.

That is the most pathetic excuse for an excuse I have seen on this board. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Didn't he control the House and Senate for the first 2 years? What happened?

Umm the finiancial industry was not done raping America.

but is we elect Bachman we will be up to our noses in new oil in a few months and Gas will be $2/gal.

Electing 0bama would be much worse....

 

[Zander]

I think this system was the same one that predicted that if the Obama stimulus passed, unemployment would not rise above 8%....

 

[whitehall]

Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama

American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades — one that President Barack Obama might have an interest in seeing Lichtman extend.

Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan, U.S. News and World Report reported. The formula that predicted Obama's 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model, described in his book The Keys to the White House, relies on 13 "keys" that gauge the performance of the sitting president's party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party's favor, the candidate they present will win.

Never-fail prediction system shows 2012 win for Obama | The Raw Story

Another left wing Haavaad educated professor? Yawn. For an apparently educated man professor Lichtman seems strangely unaware that Obama is running unopposed at this point in time.

 

[Salt Jones]

I already know Obama is going to win. The Republican money and leaders know he's going to win, but they have got to run somebody. They want to keep republican turnout at a level where they make gains in the senate and house.

Really? How do you think he will win with a record like his, longest sustained unemployment since the Great Depression. Blaming it on Bush won't work this time. He owns the unemployment rate. He has been flailing around for 3 years promising a "laser like focus on jobs" and has delivered a miserably failed stimulus and not much else.
Many of the states he won he did so by only a 2% margin. How will he possibly carry them again?

Easy. The republican nominee will have to turn so far right and kiss tea party ass to win the nomination that he won't be able to move to the center to win the general.

 

[Salt Jones]

I already know Obama is going to win. The Republican money and leaders know he's going to win, but they have got to run somebody. They want to keep republican turnout at a level where they make gains in the senate and house.

And how did you become privy to this knowledge?

Growing up around washington, dc and studying politics the way a Las Vegas bookie studies the NFL. I played Fantasy Congress for a couple years, politics is my favorite game.

Fantasy Congress - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Dr.House]

I already know Obama is going to win. The Republican money and leaders know he's going to win, but they have got to run somebody. They want to keep republican turnout at a level where they make gains in the senate and house.

And how did you become privy to this knowledge?

Growing up around washington, dc and studying politics the way a Las Vegas bookie studies the NFL. I played Fantasy Congress for a couple years, politics is my favorite game.

Fantasy Congress - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You obviously lost often...

 

[Avatar4321]

Easy. The republican nominee will have to turn so far right and kiss tea party ass to win the nomination that he won't be able to move to the center to win the general.

Because independents are clearly going to vote for more of the same when they have a choice between that and fiscal responsibility and limit government.

 

[Avatar4321]

I already know Obama is going to win. The Republican money and leaders know he's going to win, but they have got to run somebody. They want to keep republican turnout at a level where they make gains in the senate and house.

And how did you become privy to this knowledge?

Growing up around washington, dc and studying politics the way a Las Vegas bookie studies the NFL. I played Fantasy Congress for a couple years, politics is my favorite game.

Fantasy Congress - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You grew up around DC? No wonder you are so detached from reality.

 

[geauxtohell]

10.1% UE when he promised never over 8%.
vs
we found tons of bombs, some uranium, and the machines to makes all sorts of chemical/biological weapons but not specifically wmd's.


you will have to excuse me for not playing along

Go peddle that bullshit to someone that will believe it. Bush took us to war due to the threat of WMDs. Or do you forget the "do you want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud......" quote from Condi? If any whiff of "WMDs" were found, the Bush supporters would have screamed it from the mountain tops. There wasn't even enough material found to make a plausible cover story. Instead, we have been told the "WMDs" were probably smuggled into Syria.

The most sacred trust the President has is in his decision to commit Americans to war. To get support for this in Iraq, Bush had to demonstrate that Iraq was a threat to the security of the United States. Hence the focus on the WMDs. He would have never had the support of the congress and American people without a tie to American security.

It wasn't until the whole WMD thing turned out to be a bust that the mission became about "spreading democracy".

Actually Bush stated that freeing the people of Iraq was a one of the primary reasons for going in. He said that when he announced to the country that the war had started...

Also The final report if you would read it tells us that the inspectors found that most factories were set up so that they could easily and quickly converted to produce WMD. This was a very well planned set up, It was believed that Saddam was simply waiting for the inspectors to leave and sanctions to be lifted.

Freeing the people of Iraq was "one" of the missions in the resolution supporting armed conflict (because in "newspeak" we can't simply call it what it is - a declaration of war). It was far from the primary reason or something considered to be anything other than a fringe benefit.

You and I both know the American people and the congress would have never supported the war build up if it wasn't proximately tied to our security. That's why it was all about WMDs until we couldn't find any WMDs. I mean hell, have you forgotten the run up to the war? Colin Powell's disgraceful speech to the UN? The Yellowcake from Africa that got Valarie Plame outed? I mean, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but that doesn't mean I forgot the past.

Do I think Bush believed there were WMDs in Iraq? Yes I do. I don't think he "intentionally" deceived the American people. I just think he gambled on the most important decision of his presidency on an assumption that "surely Saddam wouldn't discontinue his WMD programs after being beaten into submission in the first Gulf War". I think, based on that assumption, the facts became "self evident" to the Bush administration and it turned into the self licking ice cream cone and we went to war to prevent Iraq from using or distributing something they didn't have.

A man with any integrity would have resigned. Bush had no integrity, so he changed the misison to "spreading democracy".

If the rubes want to believe that shit, go for it. I, however, remember it all with clarity.

In fact, I remember those days well. Sitting in my uniform in Hawaii wondering when I would see Afghanistan and watching the subtle saber rattling about Iraq from Bush Administration cronies turn into a full fledged war cry until I called my buddy in the 101st on his way over and (after we both shared the obligatory "what the fuck?") wished him Godspeed and safety.

The way the administration sold that war was brilliant. Obviously, as we now have people who can't even remember what the fuck we went to war for.

 

[geauxtohell]

10.1% UE when he promised never over 8%.
vs
we found tons of bombs, some uranium, and the machines to makes all sorts of chemical/biological weapons but not specifically wmd's.


you will have to excuse me for not playing along

It wasn't until the whole WMD thing turned out to be a bust that the mission became about "spreading democracy".

absolute bold faced LIE!!! only Days after 9/11 Bush announced his new Doctrine which was to take the fight to the enemy, and "spread democracy around the world". He then announced that toppling Saddam was the next step in this new Doctrine of spreading Democracy around the world. Only when it became clear there was not enough support for Iraq, did the message become about WMD's

You fucking Liberals only remember what you want to.

So, admittedly, the administration spun the intent of the war to gain support for a conflict the American people would have otherwise not supported if they didn't crook the facts?

You are damned right the American people wouldn't support the build up in Iraq to "spread democracy". Fuck Iraq. If they want "democracy", let them take it for themselves. Self determination can't be imposed by an outside force. A little lesson that it has taken us about a decade to learn.

So Bush had to get creative with the whole WMD and scare the American people into a war?

Thanks for playing.

 

[geauxtohell]

10.1% UE when he promised never over 8%.
vs
we found tons of bombs, some uranium, and the machines to makes all sorts of chemical/biological weapons but not specifically wmd's.


you will have to excuse me for not playing along

Go peddle that bullshit to someone that will believe it. Bush took us to war due to the threat of WMDs. Or do you forget the "do you want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud......" quote from Condi? If any whiff of "WMDs" were found, the Bush supporters would have screamed it from the mountain tops. There wasn't even enough material found to make a plausible cover story. Instead, we have been told the "WMDs" were probably smuggled into Syria.

The most sacred trust the President has is in his decision to commit Americans to war. To get support for this in Iraq, Bush had to demonstrate that Iraq was a threat to the security of the United States. Hence the focus on the WMDs. He would have never had the support of the congress and American people without a tie to American security.

It wasn't until the whole WMD thing turned out to be a bust that the mission became about "spreading democracy".

WMDs was one of a number of factors for the liberation of Iraq.

It was the main factor to the point of being the sole factor. If you are honest and remember the zeitgeist, you can admit that.

We didn't start speaking of the wonders of "spreading democracy" until the WMD mission went tits up.

 

[geauxtohell]

Go peddle that bullshit to someone that will believe it. Bush took us to war due to the threat of WMDs. Or do you forget the "do you want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud......" quote from Condi? If any whiff of "WMDs" were found, the Bush supporters would have screamed it from the mountain tops. There wasn't even enough material found to make a plausible cover story. Instead, we have been told the "WMDs" were probably smuggled into Syria.

The most sacred trust the President has is in his decision to commit Americans to war. To get support for this in Iraq, Bush had to demonstrate that Iraq was a threat to the security of the United States. Hence the focus on the WMDs. He would have never had the support of the congress and American people without a tie to American security.

It wasn't until the whole WMD thing turned out to be a bust that the mission became about "spreading democracy".

WMDs was one of a number of factors for the liberation of Iraq.

Do we need to repost all the quotes from Democrats from Bill Clinton on down that Saddam had WMD and something needed to be done?

Only if you want a lesson in non sequitur. Here's the difference: Bill Clinton didn't commit to an invasion of Iraq on a supposition that could turn out to be wrong.

But Bill was always smarter than George. It's a damn shame he had moral failings, as I think Gore would have won easily if not for that famous blow job.

The world would likely be a different place. (And I didn't even vote for Gore in 2000).

 

[The Rabbi]

Go peddle that bullshit to someone that will believe it. Bush took us to war due to the threat of WMDs. Or do you forget the "do you want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud......" quote from Condi? If any whiff of "WMDs" were found, the Bush supporters would have screamed it from the mountain tops. There wasn't even enough material found to make a plausible cover story. Instead, we have been told the "WMDs" were probably smuggled into Syria.

The most sacred trust the President has is in his decision to commit Americans to war. To get support for this in Iraq, Bush had to demonstrate that Iraq was a threat to the security of the United States. Hence the focus on the WMDs. He would have never had the support of the congress and American people without a tie to American security.

It wasn't until the whole WMD thing turned out to be a bust that the mission became about "spreading democracy".

Actually Bush stated that freeing the people of Iraq was a one of the primary reasons for going in. He said that when he announced to the country that the war had started...

Also The final report if you would read it tells us that the inspectors found that most factories were set up so that they could easily and quickly converted to produce WMD. This was a very well planned set up, It was believed that Saddam was simply waiting for the inspectors to leave and sanctions to be lifted.

Freeing the people of Iraq was "one" of the missions in the resolution supporting armed conflict (because in "newspeak" we can't simply call it what it is - a declaration of war). It was far from the primary reason or something considered to be anything other than a fringe benefit.

You and I both know the American people and the congress would have never supported the war build up if it wasn't proximately tied to our security. That's why it was all about WMDs until we couldn't find any WMDs. I mean hell, have you forgotten the run up to the war? Colin Powell's disgraceful speech to the UN? The Yellowcake from Africa that got Valarie Plame outed? I mean, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but that doesn't mean I forgot the past.

Do I think Bush believed there were WMDs in Iraq? Yes I do. I don't think he "intentionally" deceived the American people. I just think he gambled on the most important decision of his presidency on an assumption that "surely Saddam wouldn't discontinue his WMD programs after being beaten into submission in the first Gulf War". I think, based on that assumption, the facts became "self evident" to the Bush administration and it turned into the self licking ice cream cone and we went to war to prevent Iraq from using or distributing something they didn't have.

A man with any integrity would have resigned. Bush had no integrity, so he changed the misison to "spreading democracy".

If the rubes want to believe that shit, go for it. I, however, remember it all with clarity.

In fact, I remember those days well. Sitting in my uniform in Hawaii wondering when I would see Afghanistan and watching the subtle saber rattling about Iraq from Bush Administration cronies turn into a full fledged war cry until I called my buddy in the 101st on his way over and (after we both shared the obligatory "what the fuck?") wished him Godspeed and safety.

The way the administration sold that war was brilliant. Obviously, as we now have people who can't even remember what the fuck we went to war for.

No, of course you have a selective and poor memory.
The actual cause of war was Iraq's continued and repeated violations of UN resolutions, their failure to give over data on their WMD programs, and their state support of terrorism for about 20 years.

The war went forward with Congressional approval, including many many Democrats, many of whom had access to the same intelligence the Administration did.
I remember the French agreeing to support the US in the UN until the actual vote when they stabbed us in the back. This is probably because they were sucking Saddam's dick, along with the Germans, making big money in the now-forgotten oil for food scandal.

Revisionism is an ugly thing. Do we need to rehash the many many quotations from Democrats demanding Bush do something about Saddam's WMDs?

 

[Claudette]

Actually Bush stated that freeing the people of Iraq was a one of the primary reasons for going in. He said that when he announced to the country that the war had started...

Also The final report if you would read it tells us that the inspectors found that most factories were set up so that they could easily and quickly converted to produce WMD. This was a very well planned set up, It was believed that Saddam was simply waiting for the inspectors to leave and sanctions to be lifted.

Freeing the people of Iraq was "one" of the missions in the resolution supporting armed conflict (because in "newspeak" we can't simply call it what it is - a declaration of war). It was far from the primary reason or something considered to be anything other than a fringe benefit.

You and I both know the American people and the congress would have never supported the war build up if it wasn't proximately tied to our security. That's why it was all about WMDs until we couldn't find any WMDs. I mean hell, have you forgotten the run up to the war? Colin Powell's disgraceful speech to the UN? The Yellowcake from Africa that got Valarie Plame outed? I mean, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but that doesn't mean I forgot the past.

Do I think Bush believed there were WMDs in Iraq? Yes I do. I don't think he "intentionally" deceived the American people. I just think he gambled on the most important decision of his presidency on an assumption that "surely Saddam wouldn't discontinue his WMD programs after being beaten into submission in the first Gulf War". I think, based on that assumption, the facts became "self evident" to the Bush administration and it turned into the self licking ice cream cone and we went to war to prevent Iraq from using or distributing something they didn't have.

A man with any integrity would have resigned. Bush had no integrity, so he changed the misison to "spreading democracy".

If the rubes want to believe that shit, go for it. I, however, remember it all with clarity.

In fact, I remember those days well. Sitting in my uniform in Hawaii wondering when I would see Afghanistan and watching the subtle saber rattling about Iraq from Bush Administration cronies turn into a full fledged war cry until I called my buddy in the 101st on his way over and (after we both shared the obligatory "what the fuck?") wished him Godspeed and safety.

The way the administration sold that war was brilliant. Obviously, as we now have people who can't even remember what the fuck we went to war for.

No, of course you have a selective and poor memory.
The actual cause of war was Iraq's continued and repeated violations of UN resolutions, their failure to give over data on their WMD programs, and their state support of terrorism for about 20 years.

The war went forward with Congressional approval, including many many Democrats, many of whom had access to the same intelligence the Administration did.
I remember the French agreeing to support the US in the UN until the actual vote when they stabbed us in the back. This is probably because they were sucking Saddam's dick, along with the Germans, making big money in the now-forgotten oil for food scandal.

Revisionism is an ugly thing. Do we need to rehash the many many quotations from Democrats demanding Bush do something about Saddam's WMDs?

I'm sure he doesn't and I agree. He has a very selective memory.

Why let the facts get in the way of a good story??

The economy looks like it will be in the toilet for quite some time. I don't think Barry will get that second term.

Its gonna be all about the economy.

 

[SFC Ollie]

So, his promise... wasn't 'really' a promise.

It was a 'Well, IF this happens, and SHOULD this occur, I MAY be able to cut the deficit in half in my 1st term'.

That is the most pathetic excuse for an excuse I have seen on this board. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Didn't he control the House and Senate for the first 2 years? What happened?

Umm the finiancial industry was not done raping America.

but is we elect Bachman we will be up to our noses in new oil in a few months and Gas will be $2/gal.

Um? Probably not.....

 

[SFC Ollie]

Go peddle that bullshit to someone that will believe it. Bush took us to war due to the threat of WMDs. Or do you forget the "do you want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud......" quote from Condi? If any whiff of "WMDs" were found, the Bush supporters would have screamed it from the mountain tops. There wasn't even enough material found to make a plausible cover story. Instead, we have been told the "WMDs" were probably smuggled into Syria.

The most sacred trust the President has is in his decision to commit Americans to war. To get support for this in Iraq, Bush had to demonstrate that Iraq was a threat to the security of the United States. Hence the focus on the WMDs. He would have never had the support of the congress and American people without a tie to American security.

It wasn't until the whole WMD thing turned out to be a bust that the mission became about "spreading democracy".

Actually Bush stated that freeing the people of Iraq was a one of the primary reasons for going in. He said that when he announced to the country that the war had started...

Also The final report if you would read it tells us that the inspectors found that most factories were set up so that they could easily and quickly converted to produce WMD. This was a very well planned set up, It was believed that Saddam was simply waiting for the inspectors to leave and sanctions to be lifted.

Freeing the people of Iraq was "one" of the missions in the resolution supporting armed conflict (because in "newspeak" we can't simply call it what it is - a declaration of war). It was far from the primary reason or something considered to be anything other than a fringe benefit.

You and I both know the American people and the congress would have never supported the war build up if it wasn't proximately tied to our security. That's why it was all about WMDs until we couldn't find any WMDs. I mean hell, have you forgotten the run up to the war? Colin Powell's disgraceful speech to the UN? The Yellowcake from Africa that got Valarie Plame outed? I mean, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but that doesn't mean I forgot the past.

Do I think Bush believed there were WMDs in Iraq? Yes I do. I don't think he "intentionally" deceived the American people. I just think he gambled on the most important decision of his presidency on an assumption that "surely Saddam wouldn't discontinue his WMD programs after being beaten into submission in the first Gulf War". I think, based on that assumption, the facts became "self evident" to the Bush administration and it turned into the self licking ice cream cone and we went to war to prevent Iraq from using or distributing something they didn't have.

A man with any integrity would have resigned. Bush had no integrity, so he changed the misison to "spreading democracy".

If the rubes want to believe that shit, go for it. I, however, remember it all with clarity.

In fact, I remember those days well. Sitting in my uniform in Hawaii wondering when I would see Afghanistan and watching the subtle saber rattling about Iraq from Bush Administration cronies turn into a full fledged war cry until I called my buddy in the 101st on his way over and (after we both shared the obligatory "what the fuck?") wished him Godspeed and safety.

The way the administration sold that war was brilliant. Obviously, as we now have people who can't even remember what the fuck we went to war for.

"My fellow citizens, at this hour American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger. " President George W Bush

 

[Full-Auto]

Apparently it has been six since he made the formula. But it the formula is applied to each presidency prior, it still works.

No scandals?


yeah

What about his family members that are here illegally?

joking it up about 'shovel ready not being so shovel ready'?

A fucking Peace Prize and we are bombing more places the Bush ever considered?

There is a difference between things you want to complain about and a scandal.

the difference is the media carrying water for this admin.

 

[geauxtohell]

No, of course you have a selective and poor memory.
The actual cause of war was Iraq's continued and repeated violations of UN resolutions, their failure to give over data on their WMD programs, and their state support of terrorism for about 20 years.

I didn't realize that the United States was in the business of enforcing UN resolutions? Why would the UN not enforce it's own broken resolutions? If it was because they were weak, why wouldn't the UN support us in enforcing their resolutions? Why didn't we listen to the UN weapon's inspector, Hans Blix?

I thought conservatives hated the UN? I guess you hate it until you need to use it to support Bush's war adventurism. You can't have it both ways.

Every time this lousy house of cards is set up, it is easily toppled.

The war went forward with Congressional approval, including many many Democrats, many of whom had access to the same intelligence the Administration did.
I remember the French agreeing to support the US in the UN until the actual vote when they stabbed us in the back. This is probably because they were sucking Saddam's dick, along with the Germans, making big money in the now-forgotten oil for food scandal.

And I hold Congress accountable for not doing due diligence. It cost HRC my vote in the last primary. Then again, there portion of the blame is much smaller in my eyes. The President made the case for war, the President either knowingly or unknowingly crooked the facts to trump up a case for war, and the President is the Commander in Chief.

"Pre-emptive war" is an idiotic doctrine and I don't think war would have been justified if there were WMDs (at least not a unilateral action). As it stands, there were no WMDs, we looked stupid and lost esteem in the world's eyes, we strengthened Iran and China, we weakened ourselves financially and for what? Because Bush believed that Iraq had WMDs.

Revisionism is an ugly thing. Do we need to rehash the many many quotations from Democrats demanding Bush do something about Saddam's WMDs?

Rehash all you want. Bush was the President. Only he could "pull that trigger". It doesn't matter how idiotic the Democrats were. In the end, Bush made the decision to go to war and that decision was made long before Democrats started screaming about it.

Dredging up quotes is as idiotic as pointing out that Clinton thought he had WMDs too. Obviously, Clinton didn't feel he had sufficient proof justify invasion.

Or maybe he realized something that the dullard Bush didn't: Invading Iraq would result in a slow bleed insurgency fight that would last years. Maybe he actually listened to Shinseki. Ironic that the "draft dodger" knew his tactics and military history better than the mighty warrior king from the TANG.

 

[JohnA]

6 in a row is nothing to scoff at.

Apparently it has been six since he made the formula. But it the formula is applied to each presidency prior, it still works.

No scandals?


yeah

What about his family members that are here illegally?

joking it up about 'shovel ready not being so shovel ready'?

A fucking Peace Prize and we are bombing more places the Bush ever considered?

depends what you class as scandal ?
top member of the administration not paying his taxes for instance ?

 

[geauxtohell]

"My fellow citizens, at this hour American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger. " President George W Bush

"Disarm Iraq" and "defend the world from grave danger".

You know as well as I that the American people and congress would never have supported an invasion of Iraq simply to spread democracy or conduct regime change. It was WMD's with the nice added bonus of freeing those Iraqis.

They really appreciated the hell out of it too. Hell, they greeted us as liberators, right?

Then they proceeded to start blowing us the fuck up for about six years.