Neo-Euranism (Russia) and Neo-Ottomanism (Turkey)

[ekrem]

This is from Jamestown Foundation, specialized on Central Asian issues.
The author, himself a Russian, looks into the philosophies of Neo-Euranism and Neo-Ottomanism in both countries and tries to explain similiarities, potential conflicts and cooperation areas between Russia and Turkey.

But before i come to Jamestown Foundation, i want to point to a New York Times article from some weeks ago, which has attracted much prominence. The New York Times article titled Waving Goodbye to Hegemony delivers an outlook into the year 2016.
The messages are that the world will end existing as we know since 1990 with the fall of the Soviets: Meaning Unipolar World order.
And the world will get more multipolar. Besides analyzing World Powers, the article analyzes also the status of regional powers who will cement their power-projection over their pivotal region.
This article is really interesting, allthough i do not agree in everything it says relating Turkey.

But the author relies also in this article to the term of Neo-Ottomanism, in which Turkey is ever more acting by 2016:

Turkey, too, is a totemic second-world prize advancing through crucial moments of geopolitical truth.
(...)
To be sure, Turkish pride contains elements of an aggressive neo-Ottomanism that is in tension with some E.U. standards, but this could ultimately serve as Europe’s weapon to project stability into Syria, Iraq and Iran — all of which Europe effectively borders through Turkey itself. Roads are the pathways to power, as I learned driving across Turkey in a beat-up Volkswagen a couple of summers ago. Turkey’s master engineers have been boring tunnels, erecting bridges and flattening roads across the country’s massive eastern realm, allowing it to assert itself over the Arab and Persian worlds both militarily and economically as Turkish merchants look as much East as West. Already joint Euro-Turkish projects have led to the opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, with a matching rail line and highway planned to buttress European influence all the way to Turkey’s fraternal friend Azerbaijan on the oil-rich Caspian Sea.
(...)

In an academic explaining - and here i will quote Jamestown foundation - Neo-Ottomanism means:

Neo-Ottomanism appears to be all the rage in today’s Turkey. The artifacts dating from the Ottoman era have become extremely popular with the Istanbul and Ankara elites. The antique stores in the country’s two capitals as well as across the rest of Turkey are doing good business selling all sorts of Ottoman memorabilia ranging from calligraphic scripts to late imperial postcards. Portraits of the Sultan Mehmet II are almost as ubiquitous these days as those of Ataturk. Even the country’s Armed Forces – the epitome of Turkish republicanism – have
readopted the Ottoman coat-of-arms – for decades the despicable symbol of the retrograde empire.
“Ottomania is in full swing with the Turkish elite, reflecting the determined revival of a culture long denied and discredited by the Turkish Republic,” one Ankara-based observer comments [40].

Neo-Ottomanism as an intellectual movement, an attempt at reformulating Turkish identity, and a foreign policy strategy is not exactly a brand-new phenomenon [41]. Its roots go back to the Turgut Ozal era of the early 1990s [42]. However, the true flourishing of the neo-Ottoman philosophy coincides with the moderately Islamic AKP’s rise to power in 2002. The elaboration of the neo-
Ottoman geo-strategy is usually associated with the Prime-Minister Erdogan’s chief foreign policy advisor Ahmet Davutoglu. In his writings, particularly in the influential book Strategic Depth, Davutoglu proposes the principles of Turkey’s neo-Ottoman foreign policy based on the concept of geographic and historical depth [43]. The neo-Ottomanists’ reading of the country’s history differs markedly from the republican narrative that sought to sever all ties with the pre-Kemalist
past and reject all things Ottoman. By contrast, Davutoglu and his disciples have no problem with embracing both Turkey’s Ottoman past and the Ottoman geopolitical space. In fact, they champion a deliberate revival of the Ottoman past, “both as a matter of cultural enrichment, but also as a source of an enriched Turkish identity as a political actor” [44]. In this sense, the proposed new
strategic outlook is not merely national but regional, and it shifts Turkey’s self-perception as being on the periphery to the understanding that the country is in the very center of important historical developments [45].

“Turkey is a country with a historical and geographical depth,” contends Davutoglu. This involves the country’s responsibilities and, he specifically emphasizes, “certain rights.” Davutoglu forcefully argues that Turkey is not an “ordinary nation-state” that emerged at a certain point due to the play of circumstances or the designs of the outside powers – like, for example, many new states in Central Europe in the aftermath of the First World War. By contrast, Turkey is a regional power in its own right, having strong traditions of statehood and broad strategic outreach. Thus, Davutoglu concludes, “it has no chance to be peripheral, it is not a sideline country of the EU, NATO or Asia.” Rather than being peripheral, Davutoglu and other neo-Ottomanists contend that Turkey is a
centrally positioned international player. For them, “Turkey is a country with a close land basin, the epicenter of the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus, the center of Eurasia in general and is in the middle of the Rimland belt cutting across the Mediterranean to the Pacific” [46].
Such geo-strategic vision reflects the newly-acquired self-confidence on the part of the neo- Ottomanists who are supportive of a more proactive foreign policy – particularly in what they call the Ottoman geopolitical space – and highly critical of the traditional Kemalist strategy for its myopic reluctance to embrace the country’s obvious advantages – namely, its rich history and geographical location.

www.jamestown.org/docs/Jamestown-TorbakovTurkeyRussia.pdf

This George Friedman Guy from Stratfor seems to have been reading Mr. Davutoglus books about Turkish foreign policy.
What stratfor writes about Turkey is exactly the concept of Neo-Ottomanism without nameing this esepecially. Over at stratfor there are some really good articles giving an outlook of Turkish economic and power expansion into surrounding region.
Turkey's brave new world I
Turkey's brave new world II
Turkey's brave new world III
Turkey as a Regional Power
Turkey's Re-Emergence
The Geopolitics of Turkey
to name some (some of them were posted in full text on USmessageboards).

Off course, an entitlement without real facts and progress is nothing more then illusion. Turkish GDP trippled within 5 years is one of those facts.
Also organizations like PriceWaterhouseCoopers predicting Turkey to grow until 2050 with yearly average of 5,6%.
Projections are, that we will finaly break the Trillion Ecenomy barrier by 2013 and by that climb from current 17th biggest economy to 15th biggest leaving the Netherlands and Australia behind us.
Other factors of domination over our neighbours are Science and Military.
Also industrial Output

65 % of the industrial materials of Middle East and North Africa are exported by Turkey.
Source: Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey

http://www.deik.org.tr/deik_baskaninin_mesaji_eng.asp

Turkey and Saudi Arabia alone accounted for 78.4% and 53% respectively of the region's combined manufactured trade and manufacturing value added in 2005. They also represented 81.5% of region's sophisticated manufactures (medium and high-tech manufactures), up from 66.4% in 2000.
Source: Oxford Analytica

http://www2.ifc.org/newsflash/docs/MENA_OA407.doc

The Economist in its Foresight 2020 study is now even predicting that Turkey will contribute more to World economic growth then Japan until 2020:
University Link
http://ref.advancity.net/En/Moduller/Makaleler/MakaleForm.aspx?KodAl=0&mdId=300

The above graphic is from Stratfor. It is entitled "Turkey's World".
From a perspective of Turkey's world a graphic which does not include North-Africa and Central Asia is incomplete. Ou navy is in total Mediteranean Sea a force to reckon with. Only rivals are Italy and France in terms of Navy.

There is no law, that Turkey will one day join EU. There are so many factors deciding the entry. The last but not least is the will of the Turkish people. Turkish people are against EU entry, and in the end they will decide. If Turkey joins EU, EU will be catapulted into World Power status rather being a paper tiger.
But i do not expect Turkey to join EU, rather live independently and power project on its self without obligations by any dipshit bureaucrats in Brussel which will have a say in all security and geo-strategy related.

Turkey has especially opened a new initiative in Central Asia. As you should know, all thos -stans in Central Asia have ethnic and linguistic ties with Turkey. Those countries are independent since 1990. Turkey could not reach out to those countries as wished in political terms. You know, all those talk of being "brothers/cousins" and shareing the same language is only cheap talk, when to this talk do not follow economic steps. And Turkey could not offer anything economy related in the 1990s to these countries.

Now things changed. Turkey is now one of the biggest investors in Central Asia. Whilst Westeners, Russians and Chinese are in motive of exploiting Central Asia in oil and gas, Turkish companies buy Telecommunication Companies and build noodles fabrics and other things which are of motive to stay beyond the past Oil-era.
Turks do not invest much in Energy projects in Central Asia. First because competition is high and Oil-comglomerates like BP have more money then Turkish energy companies.

With more economic integration (Oil investments are no economic integration) projects of power expansion are more likely to succeed.
We are currently in the process with the Turkic speaking -stans of Central Asia to establish a system like the British Commonwealth.
Turkey and the -stans meet every 6 month.
On last meeting was agreed to establish a inter-country parliament between Turkey and the -stans headquartered in Istanbul.

İstanbul to become new nucleus for Turkic world
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=127512

Turkic states move for parliamentary union
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=89447

Ankara takes initiative to form Turkish Union Parliament
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=127955

Also there will be formed a common News-Channel between all Turkish states, and Yunus Emre cultural centers will be established in Central Asia together with Turkey financed Universities. Also all children in elementary school will have same history books for history class. This is building the next generation of Turks.
From laying Optic fiber cables to building new railway systems there is much going on to interconnect Turkey with Azerbaijan and the -stans.
Georgia is integral part of this Turkish expansion into Central Asia, so Georgia is literally an ally of Turkey getting for example financed part of its military budget by Turkey, and other assistance.

Istanbul Turkish is "high Turkish", meaning literally the cleanest. Azerbaijan already adopted "Istanbul Turkish" as primary language in 1990s.
Kazakhstan now also will get rid of Russifiction and return to its roots. Kazakhstan still has a 30% minority of Russians, and all important things from institutions to TV is in Russian language.
Kazakhstan is currently reforming its education system and Russian gets replaced by Kazakh Turkish:

The Kazakhstan government wants to modernize its education system with technology and skilled teachers. It is also working on a project in which the Kazakh language takes precedence over the once dominant Russian language.

http://theseoultimes.com/ST/?url=/ST/db/read.php?idx=6270

In Germany language (translated by machine translation) is detailed and interesting information about things going on in these terms in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan: Russians under pressure
http://de.babelfish.yahoo.com/trans...tikelID=20080113&lp=de_en&btnTrUrl=Übersetzen

So this will boost cultural relations between Kazakhstan and Turkey.
What i want to say by these things is, that Turkey is also a "player" in Central Asia.
Maybe not direct via things like it is understood by Westeners who have an understanding of a "Great Game" related to oil.

Give Turkey 5-10 more years and they will be the first Muslim Middle Eastern country ready for regional and world leadership. They have a great military, a great government and are the best example (even better than Indonesia) of a functional Muslim government and society that is embedded with democracy and freedom.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/archive/index.php/t-12109.html
Agree, although Turkish understanding is not to be a World Power. For this our ressources are not enough.
But, Turkey will establish itself as the biggest power in Eastern Mediteranean, Mid-East, Caucasus and Central Asia.
So we will gain again rule over areas which we once ruled as Göktürks, Seljuks and Ottomans.
And some second-class politician-dipshits in Washington, also here in forum, really thought of Turkey being replaceable by 15 Billion $ GDP North-Iraq Kurds and Turkey just standing still, haveing no options to beat every hand trying to change boarders in our hinterland.

Reality is, that there will be no Kurdistan. Not in Mid-East, not anywhere else till Turkey is not hit by an asteroid. Kurds did over-poker whilst Turkey did not played a card, and megalomaniac US policy came down to reality.
Turkey had some shit times with USA for some years, but USA had to near itself to Turkish position wants USA its position in this area not negatively affect in the mid to long term. This happened.

From a view of power-politics Bush, if he wants or not, must be a friend of Turkey.
Being a friend in different subjects, rangeing from Post-USA Iraq to Armenian allegations in US congress. This is power politics, and till USA has interest in things in our pivotal region, we will have a heavy voice on Bush's ear.

But it is also a fact, that besides power-politics, there is also the factor of personal relations. And personal relations between Bush-NeoCon clique and Turkish government is not good. In the end, Turkish government did multiply Bush's problem of USA with civil society due to war, and Bush did complicate Turkish governments position in Turkey due to Bush's stance till November 2007 in relation to PKK and Turkish deaths.

This era will also some day end in near future, and with President McCain (being a friend of Turkey) everything will be fine again also on personal level.
McCain will first seek a wider basis in USA actions in Muslim world. Not in Cowboy mentality like Wolfowitz and Rumfsfeld did in Ankara. Turkey is still the only Muslim nation which USA can cooperate with. Also Turkey is the only nation, where such a cooperation on "same eye-level" has the biggest impact due to Turkish power.
Understanding of cooperation from Bush-clique was simply Turkey being an order taker of USA, a dog. Which we are not, and USA finally understood.

Also McCain being aware of Russia will try to bring an end to Turkish-Russian proximation, ensuring Neo-Ottomanism is not working with Russian Neo-Euranism in this area to the definitive disadvantage of USA in the mid-to-long term.

 

[ekrem]

My 1.000 post

John McCain in reliance to Turkey:

Turkey is one of America's most important allies: it is a thriving and progressive Muslim democracy that provides a model for other states struggling with reform and modernization. It is a critical member of NATO that has anchored the stability of Europe's southern flank for six decades. It is a front-line state on Europe's border with the Middle East, giving Turkey today a role akin to West Germany during the Cold War, and it shares a border with Iraq, making it key to stability there. As a maturing democracy, however, Washington will have to get use to voices in Ankara that do not always agree with us. Turkey will no longer be a predictable "yes, sir" partner to the United States. But if we work hard at our relationship, Turkey can become an indispensable cornerstone to a new Middle East.

I was disappointed that many in Congress were ready to legislate a historical judgment of the Armenian genocide whatever the cost to our relations with Turkey. Soon after failing to defund the war in Iraq, they could gravely imperil the pivotal role Turkey plays in supplying American forces in Iraq. Turkey is essential to stabilizing Iraq, containing Iranian power, and encouraging economic and political reform in the Arab world. We should be strengthening our partnership, not erecting new barriers to it. Ankara has an equal responsibility to the judgment of history with respect to the events of 1915 and to the project for a new Iraq today. A unilateral, large-scale Turkish military intervention would destabilize northern Iraq and spur the fragmentation Turkey wishes to avoid. At the same time, we must work seriously to rein in PKK terrorism that is a legitimate concern of Turkey.

http://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/pressreleases/55906246-b33a-4f7e-bce5-063a79528eca.htm

 

[ekrem]

McCain already in 2005, where relations between USA-Turkey was on low-point and US megalomaniacs approached Anti-Turkish policies in Iraq:

U.S. Republican senator who supported the invasion of Iraq has warned the Bush administration that the disintegration of Iraq would lead to regional chaos while strongly noting that Turkey would never accept the presence of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq
(...)
Furthermore, Turks will never accept Kurds having an independent state of their own. Iraq being split into three can only be a formula for chaos,� Senator John McCain of Arizona was quoted
(...)
while also criticizing the administration for not seeking more international support for the U.S. military effort in Iraq from allies such as Turkey.

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=30010


John McCain warning Europe in reliance to Turkey
April 28, 2006

And we must not overlook Turkey. Competing visions for Turkey's future have been a source of some friction between the United States and Europe in recent years, so let me be clear about where America stands. There are some in Europe who resent our strong support for Turkish membership in the EU. But I hope these skeptics would see that the benefits of Turkish integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions far outweigh the alternative. Our vision is one of a democratic, secular Turkey, a westward looking member of both NATO and the EU. It is a vision the vast majority of Turks share. But there is another possible outcome -- a Turkey turned away from Europe, rejected by and alienated from Euro-Atlantic institutions, a country that could give rise to extremists, whether inside or out of government. None of us wants this. By further integrating Turkey, we send a strong message to the Islamic world that the West is not a closed club, but rather is open to all those who share our values.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,413817,00.html

All in a time where other people waved on Turk-Bashing.

Off course Hillary Clinton would also be good. But i prefer McCain.

The former US president Bill Clinton had won the hearts of Turkish people when he visited Turkey after the earthquake in 1999. Referring to the possible contributions of Hillary Clinton's presidency to relations with Turkey, Bill Clinton said: "Turkey is a very significant country for us. We need to have good relations with Turkey. The biggest contribution to this will come from Hillary. There will be great progress in relations if Hillary is elected president."

http://english.sabah.com.tr/BF2F93AC54FF45F1A0E246364B6011C1.html
In Clinton camp is also Wesley Clark, who is sideing with Clinton and is a potential Ministe for security and geostrategy related institution.
English Wikipedia says even he is a potential Vice-President to Hillary, if she gets elected. Wesley Clark is also good.

Barrak Obama is the only unpredictable factor he is green behind his ears. But should he be elected, he will fastly suit into power-politics, simply by different channels now open to him. From more depth security reports to direct open channels to Turkey, which are now closed to him as a normal senator.
I think he is not that experienced in foreign policy.

No matter who comes it will get better.

 

[ekrem]

A Report from the UN development site of Azerbaijan....
I will not post everything from it, just some parts.

ANALYTICAL REPORT HIGHLIGHTS AZERBAIJAN'S ENERGY SIGNIFICANCE FOR WEST

With fierce rivalry between the West and Russia, Azerbaijan managed to initiate and carry out several crucial energy projects to transport oil resources from the Caspian Sea basin to energy markets. (...)
Russia's neo-imperial ambitions are on the rise as it tries to regain lost positions in the former Soviet backyard through energy sabotage and re-igniting protracted conflicts. The year of 2007 saw progress in the relations of the Turkic-speaking countries under the leadership of Turkey.(...)
The events of last year showed that the oil factor has now acquired the highest priority across the world, and the attention of all leading countries and organizations has again shifted to the energy issue, at times, to the detriment of other important directions (environment, democracy, culture and so on).(...)
All these, one way or another, were conducive to the reinforcement of geopolitical struggle over the possession of the Caspian Sea energy resources, rise in the strategic significance of this region and growing the alternative (oil and transit) mission of Azerbaijan.(...)

With the realization of the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the completion of the work for the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, the struggle has entered a new intriguing phase by securing the start of the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, bringing strenuously the idea of the "Transcaspian gas pipeline" to the forefront, adding mighty impulse to various alternative projects.(...)
From the economical point of view, the implementation of all these energy projects give start to huge inflow of petrodollars and investment in the country which opens up opportunities to intensify development processes. But at the same time, all these also reinforce real risks for the country to become a hostage to "oil card" and a geopolitical duel between the West and Russia.


Fruitful year in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations

The year 2007 turned out to be very intensive and productive in the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations and wider in the context of the overall integration of the Turkic states. The matter is even not in the number of summits and meetings at the highest level but in a qualitative breakthrough in cooperation of the Turkic states under active patronage of the renewed political leadership of Ankara.

By virtue of latest impetuous strengthening of geo-strategic, energy corridor and military-economic potential, Turkey has transferred into a mighty factor of influence in the region and started to carry out more independent and active policy in all directions, including in the issues of integration of the Turkic-speaking world.

The 11th congress of the Turkic states and societies is noteworthy in this regard. Although this imposing forum was held in Baku for the first time, it actually "proceeded" from dictation of Ankara to which testify not only bold integration "directives" of the congress but also Turkey's active role in the issue of quickest implementation of these decisions into life.

Turkey, which pretends realistically to the role of the main regional power, is fairly very keen on forming around itself a strong and solid bloc of the Turkic-speaking countries.

The implementation of Turkey's plans for the integration of the Turkic-speaking countries, possessing advantageous geographical, transit, communications and energy opportunities, are able to change the geopolitical balance of forces throughout the whole region of the Black and Caspian seas and have a significant influence on the course of the political and economic processes across the world.

This impartially is in the interest of the Turkic-speaking states. Undoubtedly, Azerbaijan, which has both close historic, ethnic, cultural, socio-economic ties and also close geopolitical and energy partnership relations with Turkey, can play an important role in the implementation of those plans.
http://www.un-az.org/undp/bulnews55/br1.php

What the outcome of the 11th meeting of the Turkic state was, i wrote before. Simply it will be approached a system like the British Commonwealth, with permanent inter-country Parliament with headquarters in Istanbul.

This new cooperation will also finally lead to a breakthrough in the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline to breal the pipeline monopoly of Russia in the eastern side of the Caspian Sea.
Russia's monopoly in the west side of the Caspian Sea was already broken, with active involvement of Turkey:
- BTC-Pipeline
- SCP-Pipeline
- Kars-Tiflis-Bakü railway

Now it must be the priority to outreach also to the west side of the Caspian Sea. As long as Russia's pipiline monopoly is not broken there, these Countries (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) are victim to Russian patronage. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan live solely by their natural ressources income, and when the only export route is Russia, this has many implications beginning with Money.
Russia does not grant these countries to directly sell their ressources to the global markets.
These countries sell their ressources to Gazprom, for example 100 $ per 1.000 m³ gas and Russia transports it to Europe and sells it there for 260 $ per 1.000 m³.
This is a very profitious cycle for Russia, which has to be broken.

So under the Caspian Sea there must be constructed a pipeline linking Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and then Turkey.
Reason why this pipeline has not been realized so far are territorial disputes between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan about a ressource field in the Caspian Sea, which both countries claimed. Boith countries did not even have embassies in the others country.
But these problems are now solved and relations between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan get better very quick, on whose Caspian-Sea territory the proposed Trans-Caspian Sea will pass,

TURKEY EMERGES AS MEDIATOR IN TURKMENISTAN-AZERBAIJAN DISPUTE
http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372743

Turkey starts mediation between Baku and Ashgabat over gas row
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=132071&bolum=102