NBC's Chuck Todd: Our Poll Was Skewed...

[NYcarbineer]

And NY I love being right

Chuck Todd, NBC political director, also named Chief White House correspondent - Lynn Sweet

Chuck Todd, NBC political director, also named Chief White House correspondent

Sometimes you just have to admit defeat. You guys realize it's not that hard to check facts, correct? Todd realizes this because he's not a complete dumbass....hence the admission.

The Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,000 adults, including a sample of 300 adults who use only a cellphone. It was conducted July 18-22 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff.

That's from the Wall St. Journal's website. I don't see any mention of Chuck Todd conducting this poll.

 

[Wolfsister77]

The Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,000 adults, including a sample of 300 adults who use only a cellphone. It was conducted July 18-22 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff.
The sample was drawn in the following manner: Individuals were selected proportionate to the nation's population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all landline telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, an equal chance to be included. Registered voters age 18 or over were selected by a systematic procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex. The cellphone sample was drawn from a list of cellphone users nationally, and respondents were screened to ensure that their cellphone is their only phone.
The data's margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger.

 

[Wolfsister77]

The sample of landline telephone exchanges called was randomly selected by a computer from a complete list of more than 72,000 active residential exchanges across the country. The exchanges were chosen to ensure that each region of the country was represented in proportion to its share of all telephone numbers.
Within each exchange, random digits were added to form a complete telephone number, thus permitting access to listed and unlisted numbers alike. Within each household, one adult was designated by a random procedure to be the respondent for the survey.

To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cellphone numbers. The two samples were then combined and adjusted to assure the proper ratio of landline-only, cellphone-only and dual phone users.
Interviewers made multiple attempts to reach every phone number in the survey, calling back unanswered numbers on different days at different times of both day and evening.

The combined results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to geographic region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, age, education and number of adults in the household.

Respondents in the landline sample were also weighted to take account of the number of telephone lines into the residence.
In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, overall results based on such samples will differ by no more than 3 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all American adults. For smaller subgroups, the margin-of-sampling error is larger. Shifts in results between polls over time also have a larger sampling error.

In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Variation in the wording and order of questions, for example, may lead to somewhat different results.

 

[Wolfsister77]

So, you see. The poll wasn't skewed. WSJ is a Conservative organization and this poll was done by an independent polling organization and according to the statistics and sampling I listed above.

 

[Listening]

They polled 25% liberals and 39% conservatives in that poll. Chuck Todd apparently doesn't know what the demographics of the electorate are.

BTW...where did you get that..... ?

Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this begs the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin, hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.

 

[Listening]

So, you see. The poll wasn't skewed. WSJ is a Conservative organization and this poll was done by an independent polling organization and according to the statistics and sampling I listed above.

Please explain your comment.

What do you mean it wasn't skewed ?

 

[Wolfsister77]

So, you see. The poll wasn't skewed. WSJ is a Conservative organization and this poll was done by an independent polling organization and according to the statistics and sampling I listed above.

Please explain your comment.

What do you mean it wasn't skewed ?

I listed how the poll was done and also commented on the fact that others were saying NBC is in the tank for Obama by mentioning WSJ was Conservative.

But the poll was done by an independent polling firm according to fair guidelines as I outlined above.

 

[healthmyths]

No, GE/NBC definitely isn't in the tank for Obama/Democrats. No way.


Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.

Note to Mr. Todd: a highly partisan skew doesn't just affect the head-to-head match up. It affects pretty much every other finding in the poll. Obama and Romney's likability? Who is better to handle particular issues? Every single "result" will be skewed due to the flawed sample used in the poll. There is simply almost no real information to be accurately "learned" from this poll...

Read More:
NBC's Chuck Todd: Our Poll Was Skewed

As you noted this is NOT an NBC aberration!
Those of us that have brought this bias in poll results have noted that most of the polls will have more respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.

Here is a CBS poll
CBS News State of the Union Poll - CBS News

An overwhelming majority of Americans approved of the overall message in President Obama's State of the Union speech on Tuesday night, according to a CBS News poll of speech watchers.
91 percent of those who watched the speech approved of the proposals Mr. Obama put forth during his remarks. Only nine percent disapproved.

The above CBS poll of 659 people.

44% or 290 were Democrats
31% or 204 were Independent
25% or 165 were GOP

So if there 64% MORE Democrats then GOP...duh wouldn't it be reasonable to think they would be a major reason 91% approval???

 

[Political Junky]

No, GE/NBC definitely isn't in the tank for Obama/Democrats. No way.


Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.

Note to Mr. Todd: a highly partisan skew doesn't just affect the head-to-head match up. It affects pretty much every other finding in the poll. Obama and Romney's likability? Who is better to handle particular issues? Every single "result" will be skewed due to the flawed sample used in the poll. There is simply almost no real information to be accurately "learned" from this poll...

Read More:
NBC's Chuck Todd: Our Poll Was Skewed

Which makes this different than Rasmussen, how?

Rasmussen is an admitted conservative.

Admitting he is a conservative is enough for people who care about polls to take that into consideration when looking at his polls.

NBC News claims to be non partisan.

That's why NBC felt the need to clarify, something you won't hear Fox do.

 

[NYcarbineer]

No, GE/NBC definitely isn't in the tank for Obama/Democrats. No way.


Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.

Note to Mr. Todd: a highly partisan skew doesn't just affect the head-to-head match up. It affects pretty much every other finding in the poll. Obama and Romney's likability? Who is better to handle particular issues? Every single "result" will be skewed due to the flawed sample used in the poll. There is simply almost no real information to be accurately "learned" from this poll...

Read More:
NBC's Chuck Todd: Our Poll Was Skewed

As you noted this is NOT an NBC aberration!
Those of us that have brought this bias in poll results have noted that most of the polls will have more respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.

Here is a CBS poll
CBS News State of the Union Poll - CBS News

An overwhelming majority of Americans approved of the overall message in President Obama's State of the Union speech on Tuesday night, according to a CBS News poll of speech watchers.
91 percent of those who watched the speech approved of the proposals Mr. Obama put forth during his remarks. Only nine percent disapproved.

The above CBS poll of 659 people.

44% or 290 were Democrats
31% or 204 were Independent
25% or 165 were GOP

So if there 64% MORE Democrats then GOP...duh wouldn't it be reasonable to think they would be a major reason 91% approval???

They polled people who watched the speech.

 

[Jackson]

Chuck Todd should have been moore forthcoming and just admitted the network is skewed.

 

[NYcarbineer]

So, you see. The poll wasn't skewed. WSJ is a Conservative organization and this poll was done by an independent polling organization and according to the statistics and sampling I listed above.

True. The NBC/WSJ poll is done by an independent polling organization that is run jointly by a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster.

Oh, and while we're at it, since the rightwingers love to say how accurate Rasmussen was in the 2008 prez election...

...the NBC/WSJ poll had it Obama by 8 points. That was closer to the real result of 7.3 points than was Rasmussen,

who called it at 6 points.

 

[NYcarbineer]

They polled 25% liberals and 39% conservatives in that poll. Chuck Todd apparently doesn't know what the demographics of the electorate are.

BTW...where did you get that..... ?

Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this begs the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin, hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.

1. I got the information from the .pdf of the poll's full results, which I am now mildly shocked that you didn't read yourself, given how much you have to say about the poll.

2. The D/R ratio is less important than the liberal/conservative ratio. That is purely my opinion. The reason I believe that is that the liberal/conservative ratio sorts out the Independents. Your actual beliefs are more relevant than what party you choose to call yourself.

3. If Todd claims the poll would have been in line with last month's poll, last month's poll had Obama up by 3.

Are you happy with that number?

 

[HenryBHough]

NBC is still broadcasting?

Surprises me....they haven't had an entertaining show in prime time for, what, six or seven years?

 

[buckeye45_73]

And NY I love being right

Chuck Todd, NBC political director, also named Chief White House correspondent - Lynn Sweet

Chuck Todd, NBC political director, also named Chief White House correspondent

Sometimes you just have to admit defeat. You guys realize it's not that hard to check facts, correct? Todd realizes this because he's not a complete dumbass....hence the admission.

The Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,000 adults, including a sample of 300 adults who use only a cellphone. It was conducted July 18-22 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff.

That's from the Wall St. Journal's website. I don't see any mention of Chuck Todd conducting this poll.

Ok either you're a partisan hack or a dumbfuck. Chuck Todd runs NBC news...do you want to argue that as well? God you're like dealing with a teenage girl, Jesus man, he said it was skewed, what else do you want him to do, suck Obama off, is that gonna make you happy, will you need photos of it?

 

[buckeye45_73]

Which makes this different than Rasmussen, how?

Rasmussen is an admitted conservative.

Admitting he is a conservative is enough for people who care about polls to take that into consideration when looking at his polls.

NBC News claims to be non partisan.

That's why NBC felt the need to clarify, something you won't hear Fox do.

OMG you liberals use the same talking points over and over, I've never seen you clarifiy or go against your party/politicians, no another liberal OBamabot, that cant see the truth. Todd said it was skewed and you bring in Fox News....check out real clear politics


Rasmussen Tracking7/23 - 7/251500 LV3.04448Romney +4Gallup Tracking7/19 - 7/253050 RV2.04646TieNBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/18 - 7/221000 RV3.14943Obama +6FOX News7/15 - 7/17901 RV3.04541Obama +4CBS News/NY Times7/11 - 7/16942 RV3.04647Romney +1NPR7/9 - 7/121000 LV3.14745Obama +2McClatchy/Marist7/9 - 7/11849 RV3.54846Obama +2RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Where is the Fox News bias in that poll, wanna show some proof. My God you guys are like cultists....learn to THINK FOR YOURSELF
RCP Average7/9 - 7/25----46.445.1Obama +1.3Rasmussen Tracking7/23 - 7/251500 LV3.04448Romney +4Gallup Tracking7/19 - 7/253050 RV2.04646TieNBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/18 - 7/221000 RV3.14943Obama +6FOX News7/15 - 7/17901 RV3.04541Obama +4CBS News/NY Times7/11 - 7/16942 RV3.04647Romney +1NPR7/9 - 7/121000 LV3.14745Obama +2McClatchy/Marist7/9 - 7/11849 RV3.54846Obama +2

 

[francoHFW]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

[NYcarbineer]

And NY I love being right

Chuck Todd, NBC political director, also named Chief White House correspondent - Lynn Sweet

Chuck Todd, NBC political director, also named Chief White House correspondent

Sometimes you just have to admit defeat. You guys realize it's not that hard to check facts, correct? Todd realizes this because he's not a complete dumbass....hence the admission.

The Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,000 adults, including a sample of 300 adults who use only a cellphone. It was conducted July 18-22 by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff.

That's from the Wall St. Journal's website. I don't see any mention of Chuck Todd conducting this poll.

Ok either you're a partisan hack or a dumbfuck. Chuck Todd runs NBC news...do you want to argue that as well? God you're like dealing with a teenage girl, Jesus man, he said it was skewed, what else do you want him to do, suck Obama off, is that gonna make you happy, will you need photos of it?

Steve Capus runs NBC news. That is not arguable.

 

[Darkwind]

No, GE/NBC definitely isn't in the tank for Obama/Democrats. No way.


Last night, I noted how NBC News was swimming against historical trends in pushing a poll with a deeply partisan skew in its sample. The poll, produced in conjunction with The Wall Street Journal, had a D+11 sample, i.e. 46% of the sample identified as Democrat, 35% identified as Republican. In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7, 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In fact, you have to go back nearly thirty years to find an election with such a partisan skew.

This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in this sample.)

Credit to Mr. Todd, then. Of course, when he previewed the polls results on a local NBC affiliate yesterday, he didn't mention anything about the skewed sample. And, of course, his acknowledgement that the poll oversampled Democrats by a wide margin hasn't stopped him from opining about lots of other information "found" in the poll.

Note to Mr. Todd: a highly partisan skew doesn't just affect the head-to-head match up. It affects pretty much every other finding in the poll. Obama and Romney's likability? Who is better to handle particular issues? Every single "result" will be skewed due to the flawed sample used in the poll. There is simply almost no real information to be accurately "learned" from this poll...

Read More:
NBC's Chuck Todd: Our Poll Was Skewed

What is this MSNBC you speak of? Do they wear hoods and white bedsheets and hunt people who don't agree with them?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen is an admitted conservative.

Admitting he is a conservative is enough for people who care about polls to take that into consideration when looking at his polls.

NBC News claims to be non partisan.

That's why NBC felt the need to clarify, something you won't hear Fox do.

OMG you liberals use the same talking points over and over, I've never seen you clarifiy or go against your party/politicians, no another liberal OBamabot, that cant see the truth. Todd said it was skewed and you bring in Fox News....check out real clear politics


Rasmussen Tracking7/23 - 7/251500 LV3.04448Romney +4Gallup Tracking7/19 - 7/253050 RV2.04646TieNBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/18 - 7/221000 RV3.14943Obama +6FOX News7/15 - 7/17901 RV3.04541Obama +4CBS News/NY Times7/11 - 7/16942 RV3.04647Romney +1NPR7/9 - 7/121000 LV3.14745Obama +2McClatchy/Marist7/9 - 7/11849 RV3.54846Obama +2RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Where is the Fox News bias in that poll, wanna show some proof. My God you guys are like cultists....learn to THINK FOR YOURSELF
RCP Average7/9 - 7/25----46.445.1Obama +1.3Rasmussen Tracking7/23 - 7/251500 LV3.04448Romney +4Gallup Tracking7/19 - 7/253050 RV2.04646TieNBC News/Wall St. Jrnl7/18 - 7/221000 RV3.14943Obama +6FOX News7/15 - 7/17901 RV3.04541Obama +4CBS News/NY Times7/11 - 7/16942 RV3.04647Romney +1NPR7/9 - 7/121000 LV3.14745Obama +2McClatchy/Marist7/9 - 7/11849 RV3.54846Obama +2

So Foxnews has it right at Obama +4 and NBC/WSJ is wildly skewed at Obama +6?

you got to be kidding.